Against the Grain (DraftKings)- AT&T Byron Nelson

Recap of Last Week’s Article: Overall, last week was pretty spot on with ownership projections, and ways to create differences. Not all of the suggestions paid off as Schwartzel and Spieth missed the cut, however JB Holmes/Cantlay/Stenson were all suggested plays.

 Personal Draft Kings Results: In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post about my results weekly, and give you my top 4 owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all of my suggested plays.

 Core Four:

Scott/Spieth/Schwartzel/Kaymer

Top Results:

  • FWGC Seat #1
  • 3rd in the 100K Dogleg
  • 0/3 in the big dollar buy ins: tough to come back from that. Smaller buy-ins were profitable.

 DraftKings Contests This Week:  Totally flipping us upside down this week, DK, gives us tons of new contests. To better help you understand what it takes to cash in all these different types of contest offers be sure to ready @Scottimac11 “Making the Cut”.

$36 Up & Down 450K GTD- 150 max entry 50K first place.

$8 Best Ball 300K GTD- 30K First Place!!! 150 max entries.

$444 Pressure Putt – The big one is back. 100K first place max of 52 entries.

$3 50K Birdie- 20 ENTRY MAX IS BACK! Double time. This one is first place of $2,500

$4 175K Fore- 20 entry max!! The bigger of the two 20 entry max series, as it’s good to see DK go back to it. First is $7,500.

$1K Coastline Classic- If you love golf, this gets close to what Fan Duel is doing for the Scottish Open (but not as good in my opinion). It’s a 4-night stay in Southern California, where you get to play a round at Pebble Beach and either Cypress Point or Monterey Peninsula. It’s during the PGA Championship weekend. First place for the live final gets 40K.

Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***

$10,000 & Above: 5 golfers fit this category:

Rory sits this week out as he rests his back in prep for the BMW PGA Championship next week, but the other 4 guys that were priced over 10K are back again this week. They also added in Brooks Koepka.

  • Projections: @hump_bumgardner, AKA Kelly McCann, will be back for his second week as author as “Chalk… or not” look for that tomorrow midday!

 

Highest Owned: Sergio Garcia 25%+

 Lowest Owned: Day <10%

  • GTA (Game Theory Analysis):Spieth coming off a miss cut is very interesting, but still hard to gage ownership as the only other cut he missed this year was at Valero, and the next week he commanded a ton of ownership at Augusta, but DJ also got injured… remember that? Still, Spieth has never had a top 10 here in 6 tries, but also hasn’t missed a cut, and has never made less than 14 birdies. Koepka will command high ownership here as well as everyone seems to really be favoring him this week. DJ/Koepka DJ/Garcia and Garcia/Koepka will be the highest owned stacks, so if you think J-Day can return to top 10 form, which he has 3 of here, including a win, then he might be the appropriate stack.
  • The Top Play:Day showed flashes his game was coming back, but then it didn’t, and now word is he’s grinding a bit with his putter. With that, I’d like to stack DJ/Garcia/Koepka with Spieth… or just do a one stud lineup… This week it’s calling much more for the ladder.

$9,999-$8,000: 11 golfers fit this category:

An overwhelming amount of tags for some unexpected golfers this week should create a unique advantage to get some hot golfers at low ownership.

  • Projections:

Highest Owned:  Tony Finau***@Fan share specific here 20%+

Lowest Owned: Patrick Reed <5%

  • GTA: I am shocked that in a stronger field Tony Finau, off of a MC, is commanding this much chatter. Jason Dufner also fits that category as he came close to last place, after a 3 hour and 30-minute final round Sunday. Brandt Snedeker returns to action for the first time since getting treatment on his hand/wrist, which presents a unique opportunity to get him relatively cheap. However, he has 2 missed cuts here in 3 tries, but also has a 6th sandwiched in there. Starting a lineup avoiding Dufner and Finau, like a Snedeker/Reed or, dare I go back to Charl Schwartzel (4/4 here with 2 top 10’s), and start with Charl and Patrick.
  • The Top Play:Patrick Reed. If you’ve been watching him over the last month, you can feel him getting close. The Form Generator that we released this week would back that up, as it shows him gaining 1.82 SGAPP over the last 4 weeks (vs his baseline) and 1.5 SG BS last week at Sawgrass. He’s losing a bit on his SGP to the field, and if that changes this week he could be in contention to win. This will only be his third start here, and his first since 2013, but pairing him with anyone not named Finau or Dufner is the top play from this price category.*****Update, after talking it over with the team, and studying the golf course, we don’t see this course as a great fit for Reed as mentioned in the “Edge’s Yardage book”  8 holes really require a fade, which doesn’t really fit Patrick’s game. Because of his form we don’t expect him to miss the cut, but we do expect his upside to be capped. The top play will be shifted to Snedeker ($8,400) because of his expected lower ownership due to his “injury” status. I’m not worried about it, and apparently neither is he.

$7999-$7000: 60 golfers fit this category:

The value section has a few guys that managed to creep into the 80’s last week, and a few players just starting to find form.

  • Projections

Highest Owned: Sung-hoon Kang (Sung Kang) 15%

Lowest Owned: Jason Bohn <1%

  • GTA: Sung Kang surprisingly leads to the Fan share tag count at this point on Tuesday. His 23 tags are the most in this price category by a healthy margin, 6 to be exact over Gary Woodland. Interestingly enough, no one is talking about Seung-Yul Noh, who outperformed Kang and played with him Thursday/Friday and is only 200 more dollars. J.B Holmes after his collapse coming in on Sunday at The Players is priced at $7,900 coming back to Dallas for his first time here since 2001. He placed 43rd that year. Because of that collapse people will probably stay away from him, presenting some good upside if he can continue making cuts, but eventually he needs to crack the top 10, he has t0 this year. Also, it’s hard to pass up Ian Poulter right now, but be careful of a the million dollar let down, after a big haul last week, and his tour status back to normal, he may want some family time for the weekend.
  • The Top Play: Everyone is waiting for the Ollie breakthrough, and maybe its this week, maybe not. Still because of the upside he has, and his consistent play, Ollie tops this list. For a low owned option look to Marc Leishman as a pivot from the higher owned Ollie. Even a stack of both would be a great way to start your lineup.

6999 and Below-74 golfers fit this category.

Back below 100 golfers, again, thank goodness.

Projections:

Highest Owned: Nick Taylor: 15+ %

Lowest Owned: Again a tremendous amount of people will be very low owned in this price category.  

  • GTA:Nick Taylor and Jonathan Randolph combine for 29 tags, which is pretty much what the rest of the price category has combined! Some low-price chalk right there. Be sure to check out Bowdo’s “Picks from down Undah” for some great value picks of guys he likes in this price category! It’ll come right at the end of Kelly’s “Chalk… or not”.
  • Top Play: Keegan Bradley. It seems like it’s time. His SGOTT last week was one of the best in the field, and normally his SGAPP is the best part of his game. If that trend continues, and his iron game comes to form, he’s a top 10 waiting to happen.

Be sure to follow the TL Team on Twitter @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @scottmac11 @pgaedge & @hump_bumgardner. Don’t forget to follow @tourlvlclubpro for all your line up coaching needs!