Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green is cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it. The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s Making the Cut which teaches cash game principles.
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
Back to back weeks that this article has been fantasticly profitbale if you followed the plays. Hun-An was the only one to hurt, but, even then, had you followed the other plays a 5/6 would have cashed. Spieth and Matsuyama were both very solid, where as the Kuchar recommendation paired with Fitzpatrick would have earned you some definite dollars. The deep dives weren’t great as I only pointed out Gary Woodland as the best pick of the bunch.
Personal DraftKings Results:
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core Players in the DogLeg: Spieth/Kuchar/Poulter
So if you follow my results, you’d have seen me pick up 2 TD tickets over the last 2 weeks. Well, I turned them into 30K by finishing 6th in the ThunderDome (with only 5/6 golfers). JT took me out of the milly maker running, but happy with the big cash.
GPP-DraftKings Contests This Week-
This week we focus on the big contests as it’s The Open. Not one for huge GPPs? Check the lobby late WED night and you should see some secondary, but still large, GPP Contests.
Mass entry GPP-
• $333- PGA $300K Club Pro (50K to first)- A max of 30 here for the club pro this week. Standard with non major weeks 50K first for this 1001 entry tournament.
• $33- PGA $550K Dogleg (100K to first) Nice price up top here for the 150 max entry contest. I suspect it will fill the 19K+ entries pretty easily.
• $8- PGA 250K Best Ball (25K to first) A flatter payout structure here for the 150 max entry giving only 10% of the total pool to the first.
• $5- PGA 1.25M FGWC Qualifer- Winner gets a ticket to the FGWC that starts during the playoffs. 70 entry max for this qualifier.
Limited Entry GPP-
• $5,300- PGA $110K Thunderdome (1 entry 40K to first) Just always like to throw this in to allow ya’ll to see what I’m chasing as my top dollar entry for the week. It will change, but a nice payout last week allows me to jump in again.
• $4- PGA $225K Fore (20 Entry max- 10K to first) I’ve mentioned this enough, but one last time, this is DK’s crown jewel with golf right now. 5% of the prize pool to first, allows them to pay more people out, keeping people engaged.
• $20- PGA $35K Scramble (3 entry max- 4K to first) Nice prize differential between the 20 entry and 3 entry, as the same with the Fore, the scramble has found a niche with players.
• $12- PGA $30K Albatross (Sigle entry- 3K to first) The third of 4 limited entry GPP’s that DK has fallen in love with. I’m for it.
• $5- PGA $30K Eagle (3 entry max- 1K to first) Another really flat payout for a 3 entry max. That doesn’t’ surprise me as they are paying almost 2/7’s of the field.
• $3- PGA 30K Birdie (20 entry max- 1.5K to first) The second of the 20 entry max, which I just don’t get why it’s not 100K and 150 max… There’s plenty of options as I just outlined for your limited entry GPP’s, I’m just not sure why this isn’t a MME.
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 and up
Eight players fit this salary tier.
Highest Owned: Tony Finau- 30%
Lowest Owned: Bubba Watson- 10%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): DFS Darling Finau enters the RBC as one of the favorites, being able to utilize ihs power here to get the ball into position to score and will garnish some pretty high ownership. Snedker is a WD again so it’s really only 7 guys we are focusing on. DJ #1 in the world has been off form as of late, but according to his DR, should be in 100% health in a matter of weeks. The closer he gets, the better he’ll be. I expect a 20% ownership. Watson fits my #125 narrative as he’s ranked 117th this year. A really bad year for him no doubt, but he’s still got time to turn it around.
Top Play: Tough one here because we saw flashes of “the real DJ” on Saturday, so it’s going to be tough to fade him. I’m gonna call for the Charley Hoffman fade here. I also like Bubba Watson if I’m right about ownership.
$9,999 – $8,000:
12 golfers fit this tier.
Highest Owned: Cantlay (it makes me so sad to put him here because I want him all to myself)- 20%
Lowest Owned: Shelton- 5%
GTA: Firstly, what is Robbie Shelton doing priced at 8K? Like I just don’t see it. Anyway, the #LOC returns to action for the first time in a long layoff, which I think we’ll see as pretty custom with Cantlay going forward. Much has been said about his back issues, but clearly he shows he can compete even with them. He’ll likely have to make due on his card everywhere with 10-15 starts, unless his back progresses. But when he plays, boy he can play. Speaking of injuries, Lingmerth doesn’t seem to be in perfect health either after a dreadful Friday @ the Scottish Open, and would steer clear of him this week. Martin comes in off his best finish, and has been playing some inspired golf as of late.
The Top Play: I can’t fade Cantlay. I think he enters tournaments he thinks he can win. The more wins, the more flexible he can be with his schedule. He’s the eat the chalk of the week. Especially at this price. Play him with Bubba and Shelton if you want to get crazy.
Highest Owned: Campbell-20%
Lowest Owned: There will be at least 10 guys that are under 5% owned here
GTA :The #125 narrative really comes into play here. But before that, let’s talk about the chalk of the section. Sometimes the mid priced chalk can be totally fine, and provide an amazing return, SEE MATT KUCHAR LAST WEEK, so sometimes it’s ok to play them, even they are chalk. Campbell, Tway, and Ollie are trending towards the chalkiest in this section, but I don’t expect them to crawl above 20%. Now let’s go back to narrative street. Graeme McDowell sits at 119 and Vaughn Taylor sits at 114. Ogilvy sits at 115 while Yul-noh (103) are on the inside of the 125 cut right now. Nick Watney also checks in at 110. For all of you that don’t’ know what I’m talking about, the PGA Tour Playoffs, which starts in September, starts with only 125 guys. From there they are cut down from 125 >100>70>30 for the Tour Championship. Guys always talk about how they want to make the playoffs, so it’s a great narrative to bring up this time of the year. Stuard 133, Kaufman 134, Barnes 146, and Munoz 149, Weekly 164, Summerhays**-126 and Van Aswegen 127 are on the outside looking in right now.
The Top Play: Daniel Summerhays. Man this guy has been so close a few times this year. He also placed 11th back here in 2015 in similar lead in form, so I think Summerhays gets another top 10, maybe even top 5, and earns the FedEx points he needs to get into the playoffs. Ollie WILL WIN SOON, so Ollie/Daniel are a great stack IMO.
$6,999 and Below-
The rest. Not as many this week, but still, a ton.
Projections: Highest owned: Mackenzie Hughes- cause he’s Canadian.
GTA & Top Play: Well, this is where the research pays off. Deep dive section in a non major. Rory Sabbatini is in great form, and David Hearn is a local Candian that’s had a good season. Alex Cejka had a good week last week and has also had prior success here. Cameron Percy and Tim Wilkinson round out the deep dives that the Tour Level Model picked up on… Now a view from the “walking the course” article. Flores, Lamb, Etulain. As part of our winning element that comes out every Wednesday, I’ll highlight a few other guys I like in this price category…