Whether its your first time reading, or your a seasoned vet, this article is goes up and down the draftkings or Fan duel’s salary list, and talk about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain”. If your not a golfer, putting against the grain is the reference to the way a “green” is cut and if one is going “against the grain” your putting away from it.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: Well, there was a week off for Fan Duel as they revamped their product. Personally, I was expecting some big changes, but all we got was FD removing the “rounds” aspect, and is now making you choose 8 golfers for the entire tournament. I will go into much more detail on my thoughts and feelings on this in this week’s “Fringe with Benefits” podcast that @dfsjimmie and I will be recording later today.
Fan Duel Contests This Week:
$4 100K PGA Eagle- 150 max entry 20K first place
$0 10K Free Play- Well they try to entice people to come play this “new” format with a 10k free play.
$333 45K PGA Monster- 6 entries max this week 8K to first.
Scottish Open Satellites- Missing out on the qualifier last week by just a couple points, we have to go back to the sattys this week. Cheap options $4, $3, and a $1. FedEx St. Jude will be the next qualifier, and it looks like $400 will be the buy in for it. After that a $270 for the US Open, which will complete 3/10 tickets. Still 7 more to be given out.
Game Theory Analysis: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$9,000 & Above: 12 golfers fit this category:
Since Fan Duel’s salaries are a bit lower than DK’s, as a result, we spread out the price categories a bit.
Highest Owned: DJ 25%
Lowest Owned: Justin Thomas <10%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Massive price discrepancies in the price ranges between DK and FD, most notably being the guy we project to be the lowest in the category, JT. He’s only 7,600 on DK and 9,000 on FD. Still, with the 8 golfers and tight pricing FD offered this week, it really isn’t going to be easy to roster both Rahm and DJ, and field the other 6 spots with all decent golfers. With that being said, I’d like to look at Kuchar and Scott if you’re trying to pair another stud with DJ to keep a balanced team. Spieth being priced below Rahm and Day is quite intriguing. We see some more price discrepancies between FD and DK at the bottom of this price range with Phil and Kisner, both in the 9,000’s on FD but less than 8K on DK. Normally when I see this type of value on one site, I’ll buy into it and fade on the other. I won’t be changing that strategy this week.
The Top Play: Spieth at 10K is the best value in this section, and for that, I’d recommend as the top play yet again. It is easier to stack DJ and Spieth, with Spieth being 800 less than Rahm. DJ’s course history is a little to hard to ignore, and with FD pricing going as low as 4,500, there shouldn’t be too much of an issue fielding a good team with a DJ/Spieth stack.
$8,999-$7,000: 26 golfers fit this category:
Highest Owned: Tony Finau- 15%
Lowest Owned: Zach Johnson- 5%
GTA: I’m really floored by the price discrepancies between the 2 sites. In this price category Rafa Cabrera Bello checks in at 8,400 but on DK he’s 6,900?! It just doesn’t make much sense. On the other side, Grillo checks in at 7,700 vs 8,500 on DK along with Ollie at 7,200 vs 8,000 and Bud Cauley 7,100 vs 8,000. I expect most of the mid to low 7’s to go very under owned except the previous 2 guys I mentioned. Making a balanced lineup with 8 guys in this price category may give you the most predictable/best chance to get 8/8 through the cut.
The Top Play: Whether you’re stacking 8 guys from the price category, or a couple, my favorite stack will be Cauley/Fleetwood/BH-AN… avoiding Grillo, Hadwin, and Finau should provide some positive variance for your lineups.
$6,999-$6,000:3 0 golfers fit this category:
Start of the value section. Patrick Cantlay checks in 6,600…We can just move on to the next section now.
Highest Owned: No one over 15% but it’ll be either Cantlay, Tway, or McGirt
Lowest Owned: Jamie Lovemark and Russel Knox <5%
GTA: The first sentence of this section is truly how I feel, but Cantlay isn’t the only one I like in the beginning of the value section. The last 2 winners of the event (Lingmerth & McGirt) both fit in here, as well as people like Kevin Tway and Peter Uliehin. I really do expect ownership to be pretty evenly spread out, but with this new format, it’s truly hard to gage. If we use the stack from the top section (Spieth/DJ) the rest of your team may have to be taken from this section. I do expect Chapell, Knox, O‘Hair, Laird, and Fisher to go very under owned, if you’re looking to diversify and add some positive variance.
The Top Play: Patrick Cantlay at 6,600. I don’t need to say much more. Plenty of other guys I like here as well to stack Patrick with so you can get a few stars. Am I over excited about him? Maybe. But he’s shown that he can compete in any field, and any venue. He also is one of the top golfers at par 3 efficency from the key yardage category of 175-200. To create the most positive variance with Cantlay, look to stack him with O’Hair & Fisher.
$5,999 and Below -52 golfers fit this category:
Fan Duel’s Deep Dive.
It’s incredibly hard to predict ownership in this range, and that’s because no one really garners anything over 5%. FD’s pricing in this category is spot in and incredibly tight.
GTA & Top Play: As is standard with the section in Fan Duel, the GTA and Top Play end up being the same thing due to low ownership. This week I look to MY FIRST** Brian Stuard at 4,800. An incredible 1 bounce hole-in-one last week might have helped me win a GPP, if I had stuck to my rule and rostered him at 5% every week. UGH. Brutal. Gaining strokes in three very important statistical categories vs. his norm last week, that being SGAPP and SGP and SGBS, shows signs that he could be heating up. He’s already statistically a great putter and if that gets hot, watch out. One of the best values at 5K and below.
If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out Tour Level’s other articles, including the Winning Element, and cheat sheets that you get only in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.
Be sure to follow the TL Team on Twitter @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @scottmac11 @pgaedge & @hump_bumgardner. Don’t forget to follow @tourlvlclubpro for all your line up coaching needs!