FanDuel- Against the Grain
Well it was a heck of a week for @tourlvlfantasy in FD last week, as well as DK, but FD we got our first win in the $300 monster. A full stack of weak players in rounds ½ and back half stack with 4 higher salaried players is the strategy I used to get the W.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: Brian Harman…Need I say more? I recommended to play him in rounds ½. He’s almost an autolock for that spot now as he’s shown when that when he makes the cut, you can expect to see him inside the top 25.
FanDuel Contests This Week:
$4 100K PGA Eagle- 150 max entry 20K first place
$1 10K PGA Flop Shot- 5 entry max 1K first place
$333 60K PGA Monster- 6 entries max this week 15K to first.
Scottish Open Seattleite’s- Missing out on the qualifier last week by just a couple points, we have to go back to the sattys this week. Cheap options $7 $4 $3 and a $1.
Game Theory Analysis: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$9,000 & Above: 10 golfers fit this category:
Since Fan Duel’s salaries are a bit lower than DK’s we stick with the same price breakpoint.
Highest Owned Rounds ½ : Spieth 15%
Higest Owned Rounds 3/4: Rory Mcirloy >40%
Lowest Owned: Rounds ½: Stenson <5%
Lowest Owned Rounds ¾: Henrik Stenson <2%
- GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Finally, people are starting to catch on to adding top players in rounds 1/2. Still ownership is very heavy for the better players in rounds three and four. The most interesting thing here is that Rahm is priced higher than Spieth on FD. Thus, shows me some great value in Jordan. Sergio Garcia is also much cheaper on FD. With DJ Rory and Rahm soaking up ownership in rounds 3/4 you can really create a ton of variance stacking two of these guys in rounds 1/2.
- The Top Play: Spieth rounds 3/4. His birdies per round are significantly better over the weekend, and with FD providing us a formula to take advantage of that, I’m in. Taking fanduel’s format, and using a format based strategy to its fullest, applying some statistical measures to it, I’ll be loading up on Jordan in rounds 3/4.
$8,999-$7,000: 29 golfers fit this category:
Highest Owned: Rds ½- It’s to spread out in this price category on FD, making it very hard to predict ownerships.
Highest Owned: Rds ¾- Kaymer – 15%
Lowest Owned: Rds 1/2- Haas <5%
Lowest Owned: Rds ¾- Haas <2%
- GTA: Some massive price differences seen here from DK to FD as Martin Kamer is 1100 more expensive on FD. Wow. Somebody got it wrong. JB Holmes also fits that same bill as he’s 1200 more on FD than he is on DK. Because ownership is expected to be really spread out, we really want to look for the most upside, and most total birdies or better. Rostering someone like ZJ or Adam Hadwin in rounds ¾ should free up some money to spend on the bigger guys and create opportunities to roster them in the first 2 rounds.
- The Top Play: Jimmy Walker Rounds 1/2. He seems to have finally got his condition (lyme disease) treated properly, and is coming off back to back top 20’s. Because we don’t know the extent that his treatment kept him off the course, rounds 1/2 is a more appropriate spot for Jimmy. He does have 2 straight MCs here @TPC as well, which again says rounds ½ is a better spot for him, and lastly for reasons to play in rounds 1/2 is that prior to his back to back MCs he had made 3 straight cuts with two inside the top 20 including a 6th in 2013.
$6,999-$6,000: 32 golfers fit this category.
All three winners of the last 3 events are priced in this category.
Highest Owned Rds 1/2: Smith- 10%
Highest Owned Rds ¾: Chappell- 20%
Lowest Owned Rds ½: Sean O’Hair- <5%
Lowest Owned:Rds ¾: NA- <5%
- GTA: Cantlay and Chappell are grossly underpriced on FD, and really have been since the beginning! For some reason FD’s algo just doesn’t see those guys as top contenders, but yet, Chappell is coming off a W and Cantlay has made 5 straight cuts. Other players in this price category also make it very appealing like Pat Perez Matt Fitz and Tommy Fleetwood, that all make up that mid 6k range. Putting at least 1, if not 2, of these guys in rounds 3/4 should help you get to that magical 4/4 and 8/8 number that is so vitally important in FD to compete for big money come Sunday.
- The Top Play: Chappell and Cantlay. I mean RF says there’s no way these guys should be priced where they are, and I think its fine to roster them in either rounds. As I mentioned in the beginning of this article, Brian Harman is almost at a point of autlock play in rounds ½.
$5,999 and Below -73 golfers fit this category.
Fan Duel’s Deep Dive.
Fan Duel’s ownerships are much more concentrated, similar to Euro Tour DK. Therefore, it’s very hard to predict ownership in this price category, as no one sticks out tremendously over the other. I expect someone like Billy Hurley may get up to 5% owned in rounds ½, but I’d be very surprised to see anyone over that % in rounds 3/4 .
- GTA & Top Play: A rather difficult price category, as I believe FD worked this category very appropriately and made it tougher to find value. If the course plays tough, and the winds are high on Saturday, you could see Harris English sneak into the top 25. Youl-noh, Streb, Blair and Blixt all seem to be coming off good form and would be viable candidates for rounds ½. The deepest dive for rounds 1/2 this week will be Spencer Levin. It seems his statistical categories are really starting to improve over his baseline, which can signal a player coming into form. Anytime we can get a player that seems to be coming into form for a min price, they should earn a roster spot in the first two rounds.
If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out Tour Level’s other articles, including the Winning Element, and cheat sheets that you get only in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.
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