Against the Grain (DraftKings)- The Players
We are back this week with normal DK contests and a pretty good field! With 7 golfers ranked inside the OWGR top 20, DJ heads the back as he’s back in action after “the fall”.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: Well the weather patterns ended up really messing with the ownerships. The entire industry by Wednesday was really off the pm/am wave, however, Paul Casey returned some value come Sunday.
DraftKings Contests This Week: It’s The Players, so it’s an absolute massive week for DK.
$33 Dogleg 450K GTD- 150 max entry 50K first place.
$4 Fore 600K GTD- 100K First Place!!! 150 max entries.
$444 Pressure Putt – The big one is back. 100K first place max of 52 entries.
$1K Coastline Classic- If you love golf, this gets close to what Fan Duel is doing for the Scottish Open (but not as good in my opinion). It’s a 4 night stay in Southern California, where you get to play a round at Pebble Beach and either Cypress Point or Monterey Peninsula. It’s during the PGA Championship weekend. First place for the live final gets 40K.
Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 & Above: 5 golfers fit this category:
Ah, the big 4 are back together again, and they add in Masters Champ. Maybe soon DK will make it the big “5” (and Masters Champ) and add in Jon Rahm. Let’s be honest there is not a golf tournament right now that Rahm should be priced under 10K.
- Projections: This week we will be introducing a new content series! @hump_bumgardner, AKA Kelly McCann, will be the assigned as Tour Level’s Ownership guru. We are providing him a great set of tools powered by @fan_share to help predict ownership. Kelly will breakdown the top 10 ten owned golfers, but he also will be presenting the “Picks from Down Undah” a section that PGA Tour Pro Steven Bowditch will give you his favorite golfers that may be flying under the radar! All of us at Tour Level are excited about it! Look for it midday Wednesday’s!
Highest Owned: McIlroy +25% but <30%
Lowest Owned: Day <10%
- GTA (Game Theory Analysis):Rory jumps ahead of Jordan for the #TPC this week in terms of salary. Maybe warranted as Spieth’s course history is rather lacking. That fact will drive ownership for both Rory and DJ. @scottimac11 mentioned in “Making the Cut” that pricing is much softer this week, thus making it a bit harder to stack DJ and Rory and field a solid team. Certainly there are defiantly some deep dives that could pay off and we’ll highlight them in the <7,000 section. Stacking any of the three with Jason Day should give you a low chance of a duplicated lineup. Garcia because of his price is really someone I’m having a difficult time with – it seems too high for him. All of the other 4 could return value without winning, and I don’t know if Sergio can do that.
- The Top Play:Boy, Jason Day is projected to be very low owned by the entire industry, and he’s the defending champ. Is this the perfect time to go “against the grain” and stack Day/Spieth? I think it is. You will create the most variance against the field, and if none of the top 4 guys finish win, you’ll have a better chance to roster the winner with all the salary you’re saving. If you didn’t get the chance to follow the periscopes on Twitter today, I went for an afternoon walk and watched Spieth/Gribble vs Bohn/Palmer today for about 8 holes. It was great attitudes and crowds. Let me tell you, Jason Bohn is a character. The highlight of the day came on 11 when Jordan hit a buttery 3 or 4 hybrid to about 10 feet. He made eagle. He then stood up on the newly designed 12th that was mentioned in the T2G:First Cut and missed a hole-in-one by a few inches. The ball came to rest about 8ft away, and sadly he missed the putt for what would have been back to back eagles. When I asked him if he had ever made eagle albatross his response with a nice sly grin “I’ve never even made eagle, eagle… and I still haven’t”. He then stopped and signed a few autographs for kids around the back of the green. I’m a fan to say the least.
$9,999-$8,000: 13 golfers fit this category: **Again the youth revolution fills this category, as well as past champions of this event.**
Highest Owned: Jon Rahm- 27%
Lowest Owned: Stenson- <10%
- GTA: Well, Rahm is still under 10K in a full field event and that leads me to believe he will command the highest ownership. However, Justin Thomas is a top tag candidate according to Fan Share with a 100% start rating. This leads me to believe his ownership might creep into the 20% range. If Rahm and Thomas are must starts for you, pairing them with Patrick Reed or Stenson will give you the greatest difference using those 2 guys. Honestly, this price category is really stacked, and I could find a reason to play all 13 players. A really interesting stack could end up being Matsuyama, Casey, and Scott.
- The Top Play:Listen, Paul Casey had some terrible approach shots last week that led to at least one double bogey. That cost him a shot at the top 10 last week, but 8,300, and seemingly coming into form, this sets up well for him again. Hideki always goes overlooked in full field events, so this might be the time to make him one of the highest on your board. Combining those 2 guys could end up being a very low owned stack with great upside.
$7,999-$7,000: 41 golfers fit this category.
The value section bounces back this week as there is a ton of great golfers priced here.
Highest Owned: Kaymer- 25+
Lowest Owned: John Huh <1%
- GTA: Mickelson, Kaymer, Moore, Schwartzel, and Walker… All guys priced here during normal tournaments, and if I could roster them all together I would, but most of the time that would leave you with no salary left for your 6th guy! I expect this level to command a ton of ownership this week, versus last week it all went to 7K and below. Patrick Cantlay also checks into this category, priced a little bit too high at 7,700. Not because I don’t think he can win the golf tournament, but because DK put him above all of those guys I just mentioned. Though, that should really keep ownership below 10%.
- The Top Play: Starting your lineups around a core of Kaymer/Schwartzel/Cantlay is the top play in this price category. It provides fantastic upside, a good foundation, and maximum salary flexibility.
6999 and Below-86 golfers fit this category.
Back below 100 golfers, thank goodness.
Highest Owned: Hadwin: 15+ %
Lowest Owned: Again a tremendous amount of people will be very low owned in this price category.
- GTA: Last week we really identified the chalk in this price category. This week it isn’t as easy. The group is highlighted by Valspar Champ, Adam Hadwin, who was 30% owned the last time he played, and now with a full field, below 7K, I expect to see him where he was for the Masters at around 20%. Many other great golfers in this price category including Danny Willet (JK), Steele, Woodland, and rising DFS star Cam Smith. Coming off a win, Brian Harman also earns a trip back to TPC and his game is in incredible form, and falls in this price category. If you want to stack DJ/Rory you’re going to need to fill in players in the 6,500 and 6,600, so expect Ross Fisher and Graeme McDowell will be your most paired golfers with the top 2.
- Top Play: Pairing 2/3 previous winners (since one was a dual champion) will be a very interesting way to start your lineup. The safer route would be to go with JB Holmes and Wiesberger/Grace.
If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out Tour Level’s other articles, including the Winning Element, and cheat sheets that you get only in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.
Be sure to follow the TL Team on Twitter @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @tourlvlfantasy