Each week, “Chalk…or not?” looks at exclusive Tour Level Data and past trends to create a model that projects DraftKings ownership. The golfers with our highest projected ownership percentages and some other potentially low-owned golfers are then analyzed for you to give you a true ownership edge on the competition.
Danny Lee ($9,500, 22.9 percent projected ownership): Lee won this event the last time it was played (in 2015), he finished 16th in the year prior to that, and he has three finishes inside the top-six in his last six tournaments. Additionally, Lee is the sixth-rated player in our new and improved Tour Level Cheatsheet. Sign me up.
Patrick Reed ($11,200, 21.2 percent projected ownership): After a rocky start to his 2017 season, Reed has now made seven straight cuts, and has finished 22nd or better in six of those seven. The problem? In his last three starts, in which he has finished 17th, fifth, and 13th, Reed has averaged 77.5 DraftKings points. With the highest salary in the field this week, Reed needs the win to fuel a GPP-winning lineup and 77.5 points won’t cut it. He has made two of three cuts here at the Greenbrier with zero top-25 finishes.
David Lingmerth ($10,000, 20.1 percent ownership): Last week, I suggested avoiding the Chalkmerth sandwich to save yourself from a Henrik Stenson-like case of the runs. I was wrong. Lingmerth wasn’t all that chalky — 17.16 percent in the $33 Summer Bash Dogleg — and he led the tournament for the first three days with a barrage of birdies. He surrendered the lead on Sunday with some shaky play, and in my opinion, that type of loss can be tough to come back from mentally. That said, no way I’m fading Lingmerth again this week: He has two top-10 finishes here in three starts, plus he’s No. 4 on our cheatsheet this week.
Tony Finau ($9,100, 28.4 percent ownership): Finau finished 13th here at The Old White TPC in his debut in 2015, but he was 10-under par, with all four rounds under 70, and just three shots behind the winner’s score. Tony has made five straight cuts and nine of his last 10 on Tour. My only reservation about Finau this week is his ownership percentage, which could end up being massive.
Kevin Kisner ($10,700, 24.8 percent ownership): Kisner has missed three of for cuts here, but he did finish T2 here in 2015, losing in a four person playoff. Kis has three top-15 finishes in his last six starts, including a win, and a sixth-place finish at the Memorial.
Phil Mickelson ($10,400, 25.7 percent projected ownership): Phil has played this course three times and missed the cut in all three attempts. More concerning: At a course where Stuart freaking Appleby shot a 59, and where the last four winners have averaged a score of 14.5 under par, Phil has shot only one round under 70 in his six chances. Throw in the fact that this will be Mickelson’s first trip around any course with out “Bones” Mackay on his bag in 25 years, and I’d prefer to take a wait and see approach with Phil, especially if he’s chalk.
Hump’s Hacks From The Deep Rough
It was a good week for Hump’s hacks at the Quicken Loans National: Sung Kang and Spencer Levin each finished T5, and both players had at least 75 DK points.
This week, I can’t get enough of the moustached-assasin, Johnson Wagner ($7,700). Even with Wagner receiving a surprising amount of chatter in the DFS industry his week, I expect him to be low owned, and to play well. Johnson is coming off a fifth-place finish at a very difficult, par 70 TPC course ready to play at another par 70 TPC course, where he has finished well in the past. Wagner has made five straight cuts here with an 11th-, and second-place finish in that stretch. Need more encouragement? Wagner rates fifth overall on this week’s cheatsheet.
Cameron Tringale ($6,500) has made four of six cuts here at the Greenbier, with two top-five finishes. Prior to missing the cut last week, Tringale had made four straight cuts and had a top-10 finish at the Byron Nelson. Tringale has a top-25 rating on our cheatsheet this week.