Each week, “Chalk…or not?” looks at exclusive Tour Level Data and past trends to create a model that projects DraftKings ownership. The golfers with our highest projected ownership percentages and some other potentially low-owned golfers are then analyzed for you to give you a true ownership edge on the competition.
Matt Kuchar ($11,400, 28.5 percent projected ownership): I suggested fading — and faded personally — Kuchar in GPPs last week based on what I projected as near 30 percent ownership. While I was right about the ownership, with the benefit of hindsight, it was a very donkey-like move to fade Kuuuuch. That’s the always dangerous, and often times profitable game we play with playing ownership. That said, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, fool me…. uh, I have no idea what that saying is. But Kuchar is on one helluva heater (six straight finishes of 16th or better with two top-fours and last weeks runner-up), and has elite course history: He’s been ninth, seventh, and second the last three times the Canadian Open has been played at Glen Abbey.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,100, 23.1 percent projected ownership): It’s like E.F. Hutton: When @DFSgolfer speaks, people listen. Including me. J-Rozz loves Cantlay this week, so I do too.
Dustin Johnson ($12,200, 29.6 percent projected ownership): His play has been very un-DJ like since falling down the stairs at Augusta, but he looked like he could be getting close with a 65 in the third round at The Open Championship last week. He’s the highest-priced player in the field and I’m projecting him to be near 30 percent ownership, so I’m willing to be underweight on him this week. A full out fade? No thank you — he’s still f*cking DJ, and this is the Canadian Open.
Tony Finau ($9,500, 26.7 percent projected ownership): Finau has been a Strokes Gained: Tee to Green gawd this year and his recent results have shown it: Seven straight made cuts with six top-30s in that run. The only thing that gives me slight pause about Tony this week is his uninspiring 70th-place showing at Glen Abbey last year.
Charley Hoffman ($10,300, 22.2 percent projected ownership): Charley has been solid recently with nine straight made cuts including two top-10s in his last four tournaments. Hoffman has also been good at this track: He’s finished seventh, 16th, and 28th in his last three trips here. Per our cheatsheet, Hoffman ranks 22nd in Birdie or Better percentage, and is No. 17 in our Optimal rating.
Chad Campbell ($7,500, 25.4 percent projected ownership): Holy cow — are we really heading to Chad Campbell chalk week? It would certainly appear that way. At $7,500, Campbell is an ELITE cash game play, but as always, I’m willing to roll the dice in GPPs on the value chalk. There’s really no reason — other than potential ownership — to not like Campbell this week: He hasn’t finished worse than 26th in his last three trips to Glen Abbey, and he’s finished in ninth-, and 12th-place his last two tournaments. But it’s golf, and stranger things have happened. I should mention that Campbell is No. 1 in our Optimal cheatsheet rating this week, so this could very well bite me in the ass once again.
Hump’s Hacks From The Deep Rough
For whatever reason — perhaps it’s the copious amount of moonshine Hump consumes — Jason Kokrak ($6,700) is one of my favorite plays this week. Kokrak was 31st at this track in 2013, and with his ability to drop bombs off the tee, he should have no problems scoring on the four short Par 5 holes that Glen Abbey offers. Kokrak missed the cut his last time out at the Greenbrier, but prior to that, he had made four straight weekends with three top-35 finishes. It’s not out of the question for Kokrak to provide a 10x return this week, and help vault your GPP lineups towards the top of the leaderboard.
A dude with a very cool name — Kelly Kraft ($7,800) has been striking the ball very well lately. But don’t take my word for it (WTF is striking the ball anyways?), take a look at his Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and you’ll see he’s been one of the best over the past five weeks. Kraft finished 26th here last year and has made three straight cuts with a fifth-place finish at the Greenbrier a few weeks ago. It’s likely most players will be reluctant to cough up $7,800 for Kelly, and you’ll be able to roster him at very low ownership.