Each week, “Chalk…or not?” looks at exclusive Tour Level Data and past trends to create a model that projects DraftKings ownership. The golfers with our highest projected ownership percentages and some other potentially low-owned golfers are then analyzed for you to give you a true ownership edge on the competition.
Last year at the Safeway Open three of the six highest-scoring golfers were owned at less than five percent in the $33 Dogleg on DraftKings. Finding those golfers this season will be the key to your GPP success. That said, the chalk crushed here at Silverado last season: The four highest-owned golfers each scored at least 100 points.
Tony Finau ($11,500, 25.86 percent projected ownership): Last season, four of six player priced above $10,000 at this event scored at least 103 DraftKings points. Only Emiliano Grillo and Matt Kuchar failed to get into triple digits. I like Tony’s chances of getting to triple-digits at Silverado: He has the No. 1 Optimal Ranking in our CheatSheet this week. Finau finished last year ranked 10th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G), and fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT). Finau also ranked 10th in Birdie or Better Percentage (BOB%) last season and he has historically been a good putter on Poa Annua greens.
Kevin Na ($9,400, 31.7 percent projected ownership): Na has owned this course the past two seasons finishing second and seventh here, and as a result he has the top Course History (CH) ranking on our Cheatsheet. Although Na did not make it to the TOUR Championship he did flash form at the end of the season with a fourth-place finish at the Wyndham and a sixth-place finish at the Dell Technologies Championship. He is an incredibly safe and elite cash-game play this week, but I’m willing to go underweight on him in GPPs at this level of projected ownership.
Luke List ($7,900, 25.55 percent projected ownership): List finished the year ranked 13th in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: OTT, 27th SG: Approach-the-Green (APP), and ninth in BOB%: He is the stat-gawd that all of DFS is just waiting for to win. Hump thinks List will win someday too — but probably not on Poa greens. That said, List will likely pile up enough points this week to comfortably pay off his modest $7,900 salary.
Chez Reavie ($8,900, 20.14 percent projected ownership): Hump likes Chez but an $8,900 Chez that’s likely to be top-five chalk freaks me out just a little bit. He’s likely to finish inside the top-25 this week, but unless he wins, he’s unlikely to post a huge DraftKings point total. Even when he ripped off 11 straight made cuts to finish the season — including six top-25s — he scored less than 75 DK points seven times.
Hump’s Hacks From The Deep Rough
Sung Kang ($6,900, 8.51 percent projected ownership): Kang gains mad strokes putting on Poa greens, has a low salary, and is named Sung.
Martin Laird ($8,600, 7.37 percent projected ownership): Laird seemed to be finding some form in the final three events of last season, has two top-10 finishes here in the last three years, and was mentioned in Jason Rouslin’s Against The Grain piece this week.
Trey Mullinax ($6,700, 2.12 percent projected ownership): Dude is way too cheap this week even for being out of form and messing around on the Web.com Tour after his PGA Tour season ended with two straight missed-cuts. Last year, a $6,200 Michael Kim went of at less than 2.5 percent ownership and scored 109 DK points He’s the Hump special this week and I’m Humpnosticating a Kim-like performance from Trey.