Against the Grain(Draft Kings)- Valero Texas Open
This week is an exciting one for Tour Level Fantasy as we officially launch our site and our offerings. As with any article, timing is key. We plan to regularly update our content, but for this specific article, be sure to check out the “Pairings Report” on Wednesday night for our updated ownership projections. If you are a new member and would like to read the description of this article, and the rest of our content click here.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: The #LoC (Legend of Cantlay) continues to perform at a high level. We recommended playing him as a low owned golfer in the mid-tier price range with great upside, and he gave us just that by finishing third for the tournament.
DraftKings Contests This Week: This week, DK is offering a new $4 “Fore” contest with $325K GTD. It is limited to 20 entries per person and will be well received by the DFS community. A similar contest was filled during the Masters with no problem, so I expect the same this week, even with a weaker field. Also on the docket for all you high rollers is a $1500 “Clubhouse” 250K GTD. Max entry of 5 for this one.
Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 & Above: Six golfers fit this category:
Back-to-back weeks where nobody inside the top 10 in OWGR is competing, and therefore, the industry will deem it as a “weak” field.
Highest Owned: Hoffman – 25%
Lowest Owned: Kuchar – <15%
- GTA(Game Theory Analysis): For the second week in a row, Kuchar earns our top salary honors even though his history isn’t nearly as good as others in the price range. Thus, leading me to believe Charley Hoffman will be the highest owned golfer this week. If Luke Donald @ RBC taught us anything, it’s that course history matters at certain tournaments, and Hoffman fits that bill here with 7 straight cuts made and all of them inside the top 13! With salaries going down all the way to 6K this week, giving you plenty of cap flexibility, stacking the two aforementioned guys could be the lowest owned stack with two 10k+ guys and Hoffman as 1/2.
- The Top Play: We found out recently that Jimmy Walker was battling mono in the early part of the season, which seemed to hinder his game a bit. Now that its cleared up, we expect him to resume high quality play and prepare himself for the upcoming Opens. He won here in 2015 so we know he likes the course, and we feel you’ll get him owned under 20%. Anytime you can get a guy that could come out and win the tournament and is projected to be owned less than 20%, it’s a great way to create variance against the field.
$9,999-$8,000: 14 golfers fit this category:
A past champion, a couple runner up finishers, and a few first-time participants are amongst the golfers I this category.
Highest Owned: Adam Hadwin – 25+%
Lowest Owned: Donald – 5%
- GTA: Adam Hadwin’s ownership absolutely shocked me last week on how high it was, and DK didn’t give him that much of a price bump. He lacked any relevant CH and has that same problem again this week, having only played once here in San Antonio and missed the cut. The #playPalmerinTX narrative will be in full affect, so if you are looking to stack Hadwin/Palmer, you might want to add in Kevin Chappell or one of the first-time participants (An, Schniederjans) for some diversity.
- The Top Play: Fade Hadwin. He’s got to go on his honeymoon at some point right? With a total lack of course history, and a rather up and down last week at the Heritage, coupled with his abnormally high ownership, I’m calling for the fade.
$7999-$7000: 24 golfers fit this category.
The saga of Ian Poulter may end abruptly or start anew this week. He needs to make about 31K to keep his tour card, which means he needs to finish somewhere inside the top 40.
Highest Owned: Martin Laird & J.J Spaun – 13%
Lowest Owned: Nick Watney- 2%
- GTA: Martin Laird and JJ Spaun come in as our projected top ownership, as one is a past champion (Laird) and the other coming off great form (Spaun). This is the price category where each week finding the best is key, as it helps roster construction more than any other salary range. Last week Cantlay, Donald, and Bryan all came from this price range and were the top three names on the leaderboard when it was all said and done. I don’t expect that to happen again this week, but it confirms how important the mid-tier price category is. A stack of Laird, Spaun, and one of the following will be low owned and provide great cap flexibility (Varner/Lahiri/Summerhays)
- The Top Play: Daniel Summerhays is finally rounding into form, and what better time to do so than here @ the Valero. He has four straight finishes inside the top 13; scratch his quick 75 on Sunday, and he played well @ the RBC. At 7K, there is tremendous upside here.
6999 and Below-100 golfers fit this category.
100 golfers fit this price category. Wow. That’s the highest I’ve ever seen.
Highest Owned: Scott Piercy – 9%
Lowest Owned: Most guys in this category will be below 5% owned
- GTA: This is where we believe the Edge and Tour Level can really provide some great actionable info. With almost the entire range being very low owned, identifying players that could have a great week will prove to be an edge-gaining asset. Therefore, the only GTA we can give here is lower that salary cap min and fill it with a few of these golfers. This week check out our “Winning Element,” released Wednesday night that I’m sure will feature a few names from this price category.
- The Top Play: Rafael Campos has earned his way into this tournament via Sponsor’s Exemption, but really it’s because of his play lately. I’m going to ride this story, and narrative, as I hope he earns his card and at 6200 provides a great floor for guys priced here. In his three starts, he’s accumulated 104, 96.5 and 63 DK points. I’ll take that every time out for 6200.
If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out my other article, The Winning Element, and cheat sheets included in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.
Be sure to follow the TL Team on Twitter @dfsjimmie and @dfsgolfer23.