Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green Ais cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it. The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s Making the Cut which teaches cash game principles.
MILLIONAIRE MAKER EDITION!
It’s no secret that DK’s big draw is their millionaire maker… The prize structure is terrible in one of the top heaviest contests, of all time golf, but listen, first place is still a million bucks. Most of you know the odds are 1/105,097 to win it (pending how many lineups you do), but I am going to do my best through research and historical lineups to help give you the best shot to win.
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
I missed Mats in the top, so its a loss there, but I rebounded recommending ZJ in price group 2. For the value section i recommend a Pieters/X-man stack which was GREAT, even though i didn’t go to Hoffman. Had Jimmy Walker not tanked on the weekend he would have been a pretty good pickup for the deep dive…Still a pretty good week overall.
Personal DraftKings Results:
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core Players in the DogLeg: Spieth/Dechambeau/Rory/Brayn
Top Results: A DREADful week for me on DK. No finishes even worth reporting…I most def gave some of my winnings back last week.
GPP-DraftKings Contests This Week:
- $333- 750K Club Pro (100k to first)– This high price buy in features a first place of 100k and a multiple entry of 75. wow. 2502 Total Lineups
- $33- MILLIONAIRE MAKER- name says it all. 105,097 Total Lineups.
- $8- 250K Best Ball (25K to first) A flatter payout structure here for the 150 max entry giving only 10% of the total pool to the first. 36,764 Total Lineups
- $5- 1.25M FGWC Qualifer- Double qualifier here! Last couple chances to join me and @scottimac11 in the FWGC! Dk is also offering 27$-26 entries A 55-19 entries a 170 with 4 entries and a 300 with 2 entries.
Limited Entry GPP
- $5,300- $700K Thunderdome (4 entry 150K to first) Just always like to throw this in to allow ya’ll to see what I’m chasing as my top dollar entry for the week. I’ll be back in with 1 lineup this week. 140 Total Lineups
- $1,500- 142K Country Club (3 entry max 25K to first) I don’t see a reason to play this one with the one above, and the 444… But i also don’t have a massive bankroll. 100 Total Lineups
- $150- 30K Driving Range (Single Entry 7.5K to first) A much steeper payout then the next contest on here, this single entry 150 buy in is very top-heavy paying out over 35% of the prize pool to the top 2 spots. Still a nice payout for the gamer that wins. 222 Total Entrants
- $100- 50K Long Drive( 3 entry max 5K to first) This mid price buy in is a great way for people to start to test the waters in the higher dollar buy ins. Good for someone who plays about $500 per week. 555 Total Lineups
- $100- 15K Tee Box- (Single Entry 3k to first) If you’d rather go to a single entry in this price point, then the Tee Box is for you. Still a nice payout up top looking for a 30/1 return. 166 Total Entrants
- $50- 15K Bunker (Single Entry 1K to first) If the hundred is too high for you then the Bunker is the place to be. Flat payout structure here as 1k to first and 800 to second. 340 Total Entrants.
- $20- PGA $100K Scramble (3 entry max- 10K to first) Nice 65K bump to the scramble which is a stable in the DK lobby now. Great contest that draws in all types of gamers large and small. 5780 Total Lineups
- $12- PGA $75K Albatross (Single entry- 7.5K to first) The third of 4 limited entry GPP’s that DK has fallen in love with. I’m for it. 7225 Total Entrants
- $5- PGA $75K Eagle (3 entry max- 5K to first) 50K added to the eagle this week, but DK still loves the flat payout here. 1-5 will earn at least 1K, which is a really nice payout structure, if your into that sort of thing. 17647 Total Lineups
- $4- PGA $550K Fore (20 Entry max- 30K to first) I’ve mentioned this enough, but one last time, this is DK’s crown jewel with golf right now. 5% of the prize pool to first, allows them to pay more people out, keeping people engaged. 161,784 Total Lineups…Wowzers…
- $3- PGA 50K Birdie (20 entry max- 2.5K to first) The flat payout structure continues for these limited entry GPPs. 19607 Total Lineups.
Millionaire Maker Focus
I’d imagine most of you reading will have at least one bullet in this weeks contest… I mean why not? Off course each and every week is different and so hard to make that perfect lineup, but what we can do is look back and see what other lineups looked like the one… So… Let’s start of with this years Master’s winning lineup:
- Over 100% total ownership when you add them all up… Meaning this lineup consisted of 4 guys just below or over 20% ownership, but, it was filled with 2 guys that were under 10% owned…There’s the key. This user had guys that finished 1,2,4,4,6,11 and used up all his salary. His lowest salary guy was Pieters who in the 7500 range.
- The Takeaway- Chalk is ok, and going to happen in majors. Find the “diamond in the rough” (that quote is from Aladdin btw) and the historically solid performer that seems to be under “mentioned”.
The US Open:
- Only 60% total ownership for the winning lineup here… Basically he talk all the under-owned stars * (mats & koepka) paired it with his favorite chalk, and threw in 2 total bombs…Now the bombs obviously worked (mullinax and X-man) but its interesting to note that he used 2 guys in the 6000’s here to get it done. The 4 guys above 8K is the only thing that is somewhat similar to the Master’s one.
- The Takeaway- Again 2 guys under 10%, this time it was even 1%. (Matsuyama actually came in less than 10% as well) so again, chalk is ok, (fowler and jt) as long as its paired up with others that wont’ be heavily owned.
- Emile Heskey…Wow… Looking at his lineup, he was just under 80% total ownership, which is the average now of the 3 lineups. This is also the first time we see 2 *studs* guys priced over 11K paired up together that won… He also paired the under owned star*** (mcilroy) with the chalk of the mid price section (kuchar) but the other 3 spots (as he obliviously had spieth as well) were 3 guys just at, or under 10%. Hao Tong Li was his guy at .4% ownership that obviously set him apart. Both Sullivan and Cab-Bello where right at 10% ownership, to round out his team.
- The Takeaway- Chalk with under-owned star + 3 guys under 10%… That honestly seems to be the winning recipe here. Let’s see if we can identify that exact scenario below.
*** Note a big thanks to twitter most notably @ptust10 and @plako21 (formerly The Fantasy Fanatics) for either finding these screen shots, or having them. Really appreciate it.
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 and up
Seven players fit this salary tier.
- Hideki Matsuyama- 35%
- Rory Mcilroy- 30%
- Rickie Fowler- 25%
- Jordan Spieth-20%
- DJ- 20%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Matsuyama was just too good last week, but i think that may actually open up some under-owned guys…Fowler is going to be popular in majors until he wins, as shown by the U.S. Open ownership which he was around 20% at roughly the same salary. I do think because Mats and Fowler are right next to each-other on the salary chart, that some of the ownership that was going to go to Fowler will naturally now find its way to Mats… Rory is the next one up being touted even by his fellow competitors, as he loves this course…and its no secret. I’ve already written 5 sentences and i haven’t mentioned Jordan Spieth. I think this COULD set up for a an under 20% ownership of both him and DJ, and if i had to pick one right now its Spieth.
Top Play: Eat the Chalk… Mats/Rory Mats/Jordan Mats/Fowler… If you don’t wanna eat 2 chalk then go Mats/Rahm or Day. Day or Rahm could qualify as the low owned star**.
$9,999 – $8,000:
11 golfers fit this tier.
Highest Owned: Koepka- 25%
Lowest Owned: Henrik Stenson- 5-10%
GTA: Only 11 guys in this category, which does make sense since we had more at the top than usual. Brooks Koepka will be very popular at this price, and per norm, Justin Rose Sergio Garcia and (for now) baby-less Adam Scott will command a bunch of ownership. Interestingly though DK put two very popular American players (Mickelson/Kuchar) with them, so i don’t expect to see the same numbers we’ve been seeing for those 3. (which has been between 18-25% for each major). Stenson who is shaping up to be the lowest owned otu of all of the top 18 golfers did gain strokes both of the tee and with his approach game last week. That could translate well here… Keep that in mind. Leishamn at 8100 and grace at 8200 could also be under 10% where i think Tommy Fleetwood ends up above that number.
The Top Play: Stenson & JT … We need to find that stud under 10% owned and maybe Stenson’s are guy.
34 golfers fit this category.
Highest Owned: Berger/Casey- 25%
Lowest Owned: Grillo/Fitz/Moore/Glover/Swafford/Olesen/Mcdowell/Harrington all will be under 10%.
GTA :Danny Berger along with back to back runner upper Charley Hoffman and the X-Man head these stacked pricing category. But wait…Don’t forget about Paul Casey, who at this price, may be the highest owned golfer of the week. There are ton’s talent here though with GIR specialists Kyle Stanley, Lucas Glover, and yup DFS-Darling Tony Finau. The X-Man is also strong in this GIR category, and really has to be as the only part of his game that he actually struggles with is ARG very similar to a guy we’ll talk about in the next section…Here’s a hint.. I can’t lie about _ _ _ _ _ _ _. Back to X-Man, if he hits 90% of his greens he could he win, if he hits 80% his ARG game will keep him from winning. Doesn’t make him a bad DK buy though. Russel Henley and Hudson Swafford both find themselves in the top 30 this year in terms of GIR %. We mentioned that this tournament is a “Form” tournament, and I would say that should lead us to Hoffman & Pieters. I’ve gotten Charley just about wrong every time i try, so i’ll tell you this much, he will be in my pool this week. Brendan Steele also racks up DK points in a hurry, so don’t rule him out< hey so does Bubba Watson!>
The Top Play: Pieters/Xman it’s the same exact stack as last week.. and I’m in AGAIN. If you want to add chalk look at Casey or Berger, but if you want to stack the first 2 and gain some ownership variance look to Glover or Fitzpatrick.
$6,999 and Below:
-A Ton of golfers fit his category.
Projections: Highest owned: James Hahn/ Hao Tong Li/ Brian Harman/ Jimmy Walker /Zach Johnson
GTA & Top Play: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ = Cantay… If you didn’t already figure that out. His game and X’s game are eerily similar, and so is their talent level. Jimmy Walker was trending to be a very highly owned golfer this week, but his terrible weekend will definitely deter some people. Zach Johnson will also eat up a TON of ownership, possible over 30%. He’s in some great form, and does have a top 15 here @ Quail Hollow. Another guy with some great course history, and played to a bogey free 67 on Sunday was Gary Woodland. He’s made 4 straight cuts here at @quail hollow finishing in 4th in 2015. Speaking of good finishes, James Hahn won the Well’s Fargo here last year and is also priced at 6900. So now, how bout for some SUPER LOW (x-man mullinax low) that I am interested in… Streb/Howell III/ Lee/Scott Brown/ Ross Fisher/Jim Herman.
Thats it for now guys… Come check out my synopsis and leader-board tomorrow in the ” Winning Element”. A collaborative piece by all of us here at Tour Level/ @dfsgolfer23 @scottmac11 @grantbushman and @hump_bumgardner