Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green is cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it. The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s “Making the Cut” which teaches cash game principles.
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
In the top price category I recommended WebbSimpson, and he provided the best ROI of the top priced guys… so that’s a Win. In the second category I said Danny Lee and Keegan Bradley were good plays…I’ll say 1.5/2 because Keegan did make the cut, but did not return value, Danny Lee did though. Moving down through the list I recommended Jimmy Walker AND Robert Streb who provided great return with a good Sunday, and lastly Kelly Kraft was one of my plays in the bottom price category. A good week for ATG-DK. 3.5 out of four.
Personal DraftKings Results:
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core players in the DogLeg: Jimmy Walke r/ Patrick Reed / Webb Simpson
Well I won a ticket to the TD, but sadly I had to write a 50,000 check to buy a house a in Florida…so the bank roll is hurting until I close, and it was “light” volume for me.
GPP-DraftKings Contests This Week
Well DK withstood the test of time last week, and they didn’t back off this week and went all in on the John Deere classic, giving the Scottish open NO LOVE. If you want to hear the reasoning head over to my twitter page
$.25/1/3/5 MM Satty’s– LAST WEEK before the milly is back…get your tix!
$20 Scramble 30K GTD– 3K for first place this time and a three entry max.
$5 Caddie 15K GTD– Single entry max $700 first place.
$12 Albatross 20K GTD– Single entry here as well with a top place being $2,000.
$4 Fore Entry Max: 175K GTD– The 20-entry max is here to stay, as it has picked up a tremendous amount of traction, and is a great way to get the smaller player, and the max entry players to want to play in the same tournament. 10K to first here, with 7.5K to second, and 5K to third. A nice flat top payout and overall probably DK’s best contest going for casual and big players alike.
$33 Dogleg: 400K GTD– One of two contests with a 50K first place prize – this contest is your normal MME 150 max contest.
$333 Club Pro: 250K GTD– A max of 25 entries and a first place of 50K.
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$9,500 and up : I mix it up again as there was only 4 above 10k. In this new price range we add three more for a total of seven.
Highest Owned: Kyle Stanley-20%
Lowest Owned: Charley Hoffman- 15%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Firstly, with the field so incredibly weak, I think you’ll see ownership spread out quite a bit in this top level. Kyle Stanley will be riding high off his win two weeks ago, and the ever-present Danny Lee will also show up. Early indications lead me to believe that Danny Berger won’t be overlooked, or over owned. Charley Hoffman is coming into this tournament off back to back top 10’s and I think will go completely overlooked in this price range. Lastly, my guy, Danny Berger finally finds himself atop the DK pricing for the first time in his young career, and I can assure you it wont be the last. As per normal with the highest priced guys, they essentially need to win, or score a ton of DK point to return any type of value.
Top Play: I’m going to buy Charley Hoffman here. He’s in good form, loves going to Hawaii (I mean who doesn’t) and should go under owned vs the other guys in this category.
$9,499 – $8,000: 13 golfers fit this category:
Highest Owned: Lovemark/Moore: 20-30%
Lowest Owned: David Hearn- 5-10%
GTA: The defending champ of this event, and a few golfers on a string off good performances fill this price category. In these events, it seems that most people tend to overweight guys with good course history, and three guys in this category really fit that. Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Ryan Moore are all winners here, and all three haven’t missed a cut here since 2009…wow that’s impressive! Next with only six weeks left in the tour’s regular season, we need to focus on guys that are on the cusp of the pivotal top 125. In this category Danny Summerhays , Bubba Watson, David Hearn, and Ben Martin are all right on the cusp of that 120 mark. I suspect you’ll be able to get most of the guys just mentioned at a relatively low ownership compared to Moore and Jamie Lovemark.
The Top Play: Man I really think Lovemark is going to win soon, but he did qualify for the Open, and last time he qualified for the major he WD from that next tournament. Does that mean he wont’ be focused on the task at hand? Maybe… and for that for reason it would be silly to go against the CH horses here, so ZJ/Stricker/Moore are my top favorites… I know not very against the grain, but if you want to add some positive variance you can throw in Hearn or Martin.
$7,900 – $7,000: 45 golfers fit this category:
Highest Owned: Kelly Kraft- 20%
Lowest Owned: lots of guys @ 7k will be very low owned.
GTA: I feel like this is a web.com event in this price category… All the stars from that tour over the last few years are in this category, hey even this year’s star is back on tour this week (Hadley)! Dechambeau/Kraft/Tway/Ollie/Murray/Bryan are just a few of the web.com tour grads featured here. Reason I bring this up is because we’ve had a couple of grads this year find the winner’s circle, and this is a tournament that could have that same feature once again. Rory Sabbatini seems to be rounding into form has he lead the field in proximity to the hole last week, so that is defintley something to keep an eye out for. He hasn’t ever got over 5% ownership, at least in recent memory, so if you do roster him that will definitely create some positive variance.
The Top Play: C’MON OLLIE! DON’T LET ME DOWN… how bout a Ollie/Tway/Kraft/Sabbaitni stack? Yea that will create some great positive variance and salary flexibility.
$6,999 and Below-The rest.
Projections: Second week in a row no golfers are jumping off the page to me in terms of ownership… I knew people would flock to Stewart Cink last week, but I didn’t know they would flock to him in the capacity they did…Wow… There won’t be one of those this week.
GTA: Since it worked last week for this category… I’ll start with the courses for horses, because that’s always a good place to start in the deep dive section. A couple names start pop up here, Davis Love, Chris Stroud, Jason Bohn, Robert Garrigus, and Spencer Levin. Next we want to look for guys that are having a good season, and currently place inside the top 100 of the FedEx cup. Three names jump out here are Cody Gribble, Patton Kizzire and Mike Kim. Next we want to look for golfers that could be in form, or maybe finding form by using their stats: Alex Cejka, Harold Varner, Robert Castro, and Sebstian Munoz. Lastly I like to look at key yardages and this week we’ve got a few: Rick Lamb, Whyndam Clark, Max Homa and Greg Chalmers are just a few. To see the list of them check out our spreadsheet by clicking here!