Whether it’s your first time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is the reference to the way a “green” is cut and if one is going “against the grain” you’re putting away from it.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: First, Spieth/Rory stack out of the top end was my recommendation, and Thomas and Day missed the cut? Pretty good advice there. The next price category, I recommended Berger, Reed, and Fuyryk, followed up with a decent showing from the Grillo/An recommendation. Just those 5 previous guys on a team would have gotten you into the cash in most tournaments. Mullinax was my big miss, as I wish I had used Wes Bryan as the top pick, but overall I was 3/4.
Personal DraftKings Results: In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post about my results weekly, and give you my top 4 owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Really not a great week for me on DK, but if you check out the against the grain (FD) article you’ll see I more than made up for it there. 75th in the Dogleg was my best showing.
DraftKings Contests This Week- DK pumps money into this week, in a weaker field? What? I just don’t get it. BUT the Millionaire Maker satellites return. They also did away with some of those new contests and are back to the same ol same ol.. COMON DK!
$.25/1/3/5 MM Satty’s– We gear up for the Open with the announcement of the 3.146M GTD 1 million first place for the Open… I have no idea why they took away 144k.
$20 Scramble 30K GTD– 3K for first place this time and a 3 entry max.
$5 Caddie 15K GTD– Single entry max $700 first place.
$12 Albatross 25K GTD– Single entry here as well with a top place being 2500.
$4 Fore Entry Max: 200K GTD– The 20-entry max is here to stay, as it has picked up a tremendous amount of traction and a great way to get the smaller player, and the max entry players, to want to play in the same tournament. 10K to first here with 7.5K to second and 5K to third. A nice flat top payout and overall probably DK’s best contest going for casual and big players alike.
$3 Birdie 30K GTD– 20 entry max with a top prize of 1500. DK seems to think, based on our conversations, that this is what the people want.
$8 Best Ball 225K GTD– This is what they replaced the 150 max entry $3. I’m not a fan, but whatever, I’m only 1 person.
$33 Dogleg: 450K GTD- One of two contests with a 50K first place prize – this contest is your normal MME 150 max contest.
$333 Club Pro: 275K GTD– A max of 25 entries and a first place of 50K.
Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 and up & – $9,000 : I shake it up this week as DK only priced 3 guys above 10K, so we drop down another thousand to add 6 more guys into the mix for a total of 9. Let’s see how I see it shaking out.
Highest Owned: Finau- 25%
Lowest Owned: Haas- 10%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): A weaker field gives a slew of guys that we normally see priced in the 8 and 7K range. Golfers like the likes of Bill Haas (9500) who was just 6900 a few weeks ago at a similar, but stronger field. Tony Finau last week was around 20% owned in a much stronger field priced at 8700, and with a good performance and a supposed better course fit, I expect him to be one of the highest owned golfers of the week. With that being said, he’s poised to break into the top 50-60 in OWGR and is seeking his first “big” win, as his one and only one was Puerto Rico last year. If you’re looking to go Finau and want to assure yourself you won’t catch to much variance and do many duplicated lineups try pairing him with Bill Haas. The Justin Thomas missed cut may push some people off of him, which could allow people to grab some positive variance there, but buyer beware, he’s a boom or bust option at 10,900.
Top Play: Patrick Reed is going to win. It’s time and the course is nice and short for him. He’s also heating up on the ball striking front gaining over a stroke and half last week. We know that he wants to make the presidents cup team, and right now he’s on the outside looking in. That and a trip back to Maui should be enough motivation for Reed to find the winner’s circle this week.
$8,000s: 10 golfers fit this category in our second change in pricing categories.
Highest Owned: Brendan Steele- 20%** second week in a row
Lowest Owned: David Hearn< 5%
GTA: Brendan Steele checks in this week for the second week in a row as the top owned guy out of the price category. This time he might be the highest owned golfer of the week! Though it comes with merit as his game seems to be really trending in the right direction gaining strokes in every statistical category we follow. I am certainly not blessing David Hearn as a play, but if you are looking to roster Steele and guarantee yourself some positive variance, you could go that route. Beyond that this price category is filled with a guys normally priced in the 7’s and lower, but in a weaker field that is really to be expected. Danny Lee, who had a great week last week, finds himself in the midst of a good season, but gets very scary to roster when he gets above 8k with his history of top finishes then MC’s.
The Top Play: I have been touting the Hatless wonder Ollie for quite some time now, and this might be the time to finally breakthrough and try and get himself qualified for the British Open. He’s had quite a nice break which should have allowed him to recoup/regroup and refocus. He’s my top play in this price category this week with a moderate expected ownership of 12-15%.
$7,999-$7,000: 46 golfers fit this category.
Highest Owned: Kyle Stanley- 20%
Lowest Owned: Crane and Zac Blair/ Patton Kizzire <5%
GTA: Stanley comes into this week with a pretty significant salary decrease, and is a popular play amongst DFS gamers. I expect to far exceed any other golfers in this price category. Checking in on his stats, it looks like he hasn’t been quite measuring up to his yearly standards, thus may be signaling that he is out of form, and with his expected ownership to be pretty high, this might be a spot for an underweight. Players Champ Si Woo Kim checks in in this price category, which is more favorable to roster him given his inherent WD and MC risk. Boo Weekly coming off his his season best T5 last week will also be an interesting roster for DFS players as I expect most people to find that to bea little too expensive for him. Defending champ, Billy Hurley, is also priced in this category and is not one to overlook given his ability to play well in front of his home fans.
The Top Play: I am going totally against the grain here with my top play in this price category going with a Kevin Na/Patton Kizzire stack. Both golfers last week had pretty good weeks statistically both gaining over 2 strokes on SG-BS. Both projected to be pretty low owned, I like this stack to create some variance and pair up with some top level chalk.
$6,999 and Below-88 golfers this week.
A few winners on Tour this year fall into this category coming in with some bad form (Gribble, Bryan) but also some players on the rise.
Highest Owned: Murray and Hadwin
Lowest Owned: Per-Norm with this price category, there will be a ton of guys low owned.
GTA: Well love him or hate him on Twitter, Grayson Murray is playing some pretty darn good golf right now. A little trouble closing on Sunday but he’s strung together 4 straight cuts and is obviously hitting his irons and approach shots very well, as witnessed with his hole-in-one over this past weekend. Hadwin last week was close to 20% owned last week, but hasn’t scored over 58 DK points since the RBC Heritage. I don’t expect people to abandon him, but it is worth noting his lack of production lately. JJ Spaun is back in action after 2 straight WD’s citing a rib injury. It is a great value price for him, but I’d certainly check the wires before heavily investing. Troy Merritt is also one to keep an eye as he notched his first top 10 of the season and also won this event (@congresssional) in 2015.
The Top Play: Well again, I’ll go a bit against the grain here and go with Mackenzie Hughes. Quietly putting together a great season, Hughes is coming off a 17th place finish in Cromwell. His stats don’t look great, but as you guys know, stats aren’t everything. He’s also 4/5 in his last 5 starts when it comes to making the cut, and ultimately, that’s all you’re looking for out of this price range.