Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green is cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it.
The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s Making the Cut which teaches cash game principles. Don’t forget to start your research with Tee 2 Green — First Cut, as it’s where i start my week off, every week. In today’s game some courses fit perfectly for some golfers, while other just don’t. @grantbushman gives you a great perspective.
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
One of the main goals of this article is to find low owned high upside plays. Last week my ownership breakout had JT as the lowest owned, and he ended up winning. THAT’s why we do this!
First – JT with Spieth $$$$
Second – Simpson made the cut, but didn’t make much noise other than that. Casey played well…yet again.
Third -Cantlay was a nice return, as was Adam Hadwin… Pretty good start!
Fourth – Marc Leishman…nice… Great week.
Personal DraftKings Results/ Fantasy Golf World Championship
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core Players in the Dogleg: DJ/Rahm/Scott
Top Results: Again I move on, but a tough break with Adam Scott missing the cut… He was part of my Thunderdome lineup. Here’s that exact lineup that got me through to Chicago in the FGWC, and my best lineup that came in 66th in the dogleg.
DraftKings Contests This Week
CHAMPIONSHIP season continues…LOW $ MME ALERT!!!
$444- 444K Pressure Putt (50K First place)- The Pressure Putt Championshp has 110 more lineups than the Club pro last week. 33 is the max lineup here. 1111 Total Lineups
$33- 600K Dog Leg (100K to first) The dogleg championship “encore” as this contest filled with ease last week. 21019 Total Lineups
$5- 400K Par 5 Championship. YES!! The DFSGOLFTwitter- AKA “DFS-GT” has been asking for the exact tournament for quite some time. 50K up top which is not exactly what we wanted, but its a start. 94,117 Total Lineups
Limited Entry GPPs:
$1,500- 102K Country Club (3 entry max 25K to first) 40K is pulled from the contest as the try and promote the Mega 8’s in stead. 25k to first. 72 Total Lineups**same as last week.
$188- 25K Bump and Run- New contest this weeks and price point. 4K to first with a 4 entry max 147 Total Lineups
$100- 20K Long Drive( 3 entry max 3K to first) This mid price buy in is a great way for people to start to test the waters in the higher dollar buy ins. Good for someone who plays about $500 per week. 222 Total Lineups
$20- PGA $35K Scramble (3 entry max- 4K to first) Another 5k into the scramble as this 3 entry contest gets up to 4K to first.
$12- PGA $25K Albatross (Single entry- 2.5K to first) The third of 4 limited entry GPP’s that DK has fallen in love with. I’m for it. 2408 Total Entrants** same as last week
$3- PGA 100K Birdie (20 entry max- 5K to first)DK gets rid of the $4 fore, probably to focus on the $5 par 5 chamionship, but they do up this contest by 60K. 5K up to shows a really flat payout structure for this limited entry gpp. 39,215 total lineups
Player Focus- BMW Championship
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise. ***
$9,000 and up: We adjust for the lack of players priced above 10K. 10 players fit this bill
Highest Owned: Rickie Fowler 25%
Lowest Owned: Brooks Koepka
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): For the better part of this year i’ve been off of Brooks…Simply due to the fact that i dont think he can hit value week in and week out. However he’s almost forgetten and is trending to be very low owned. Before we go further lets take a look at how last week ended up: ($33 dogleg used)
- Rahm- 9.6%
Total Ownership: 189%
If we match that again this week, here’s how I see it shaking out:
The Top Play: For the mass entry GPP, this theme of underowned stars winning is hard to ignore. Let’s pair Brooks and Rahm together for Stack 1a. stacks 1b. and 1c. would be those 2 with Spieth.
Before we move on…Let’s all take a look at Jon Rahm’s BIGGEST score to date…
10 golfers fit this tier again for this week.
Highest Owned: Patrick Reed- 25%
Lowest Owned: Poulter
GTA: 10 again this week. Poulter, seemed to cool off from his stellar in-season form, and may be his last week of the pga tour season. Interestingly enough though Matt Kuchar at 8200 is not getting much love at all around the industry. If he comes in below 10% in a no cut event, he might be a really decent GPP pivot of this next guy… Patrick Reed at 8K with the RF, he will be the highest owned in this category and will come close to Fowler/day/Casey. At the top of this price category Stenson returns to action and has been in some good form over the last bit with a win and a couple top 25’s, but gamers should be weary of his lingering knee issue. Just below him Louie and Sergio could provide some medium level ownership, thus adding some positive variance. Cantlay goes back up to nosebleed price leves and almost seems expensive at this point… i know I can’t believe i’m saying that, but it might be a reason that his ownership stays below 15%. Newly anointed president Cup member Kevin Chappell rounds out this price category and will receive around 15-20% ownership.
The Top Play: “Almost seems expensive”…Cantlay/Kuchar…Ton’s of positive variance possible there.
$7,999 and below…
50 golfers fit this category. We combine as there are only 5 guys priced below 7K.
Highest Owned: Tony Finau/Leishman/Bergerr
Lowest Owned: at least 10 guys will be under 10% owned in this category. I’ll highlight a few I like below.
GTA: Leishman coming in with excellent form should lead the ownership…However Danny Berger is getting a ton of love, and rightfully so. Tony Finau will come charging in behind them soaking up most of this price categories ownership. A slew of guys that will be under-owned but will put up points in a no cut event: List/X-man/Bradley/Dufner/simpson. Other guys that i suspect will garner a decent ownership % are Molinari/Mickelson/Stanley/Hoffman/Na. Other low owned guys that you can certainly get under 5% are Kang,Hughes, Dechambeau. Charl Schwarztel also winds up a bit more expensive than last week, but has some great course history here. Other low owned guys that i suspect in the 5-10% range are: Steele/Schinderans/Cauley/Si.Woo/Haas/Tway/Vegas/Kisner.
The Top Play: Let’s take List, X-man, and Simpson for a 3 stack that should be very low owned. It will also provide a ton of salary flexibility to mix and match your favorite 3.
Thats it for now guys… Come check out my synopsis and leader-board tomorrow in the ” Winning Element”. A collaborative piece by all of us here at Tour Level/ @dfsgolfer23 @scottmac11 @grantbushman and @hump_bumgardner