Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green is cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it. The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s Making the Cut which teaches cash game principles.
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
Well, as I do when I’m right (gloat), and when I’m wrong I let you know… I had to choose between Kuchar and Hoffman to fade last week, and my pick was Hoffman. That didn’t work. I was right about Cantlay being top owned, and he was just able to get a decent return, and I did mention Martin Flores in the final price category for some salvation in a less than stellar week,.
Personal DraftKings Results:
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core Players in the DogLeg: DJ/Cantlay/Summerhays
I’m not ever one to complain about DK results, but I think its important for everyone to understand that this game is hard. Even with the great weeks one could have, and I have certainly had them, there’s the down weeks as well… Last week I was sitting pretty in third place in the Thunderdome with two holes remaining.. my two holes had Gary Woodland and most other guys had one hole remaining, and that was with Tony Finau…Finau’s eagle on 18 netted him a total of eight (eagle) +eight (positional points) +five (ARU70) for a total of 21 points… four guys passed me, putting me just two points out of the cash. That’s a #badbeat… if he makes just birdie there I cash… crazy. See the SS below.
GPP-DraftKings Contests This Week:
- $444- PGA $400K Club Pro (50K to first)- A max of 30 again here as 100k is pumped into this mid-high- PP.
- $33- PGA $600K Dogleg (100K to first) Nice price up top here for the 150 max entry contest. They pump 50K in as the dogleg filled up very early last week. Let’s see if we can build on this for next season!
- $8- PGA 250K Best Ball (25K to first) A flatter payout structure here for the 150 max entry giving only 10% of the total pool to the first.
- $5- PGA 1.25M FGWC Qualifer- Double qualifier here! Last couple chances to join me and @scottimac in the FWGC!
Limited Entry GPP
$5,300- PGA $110K Thunderdome (1 entry 40K to first) Just always like to throw this in to allow ya’ll to see what I’m chasing as my top dollar entry for the week. It
- $4- PGA $225K Fore (20 Entry max- 10K to first) I’ve mentioned this enough, but one last time, this is DK’s crown jewel with golf right now. 5% of the prize pool to first, allows them to pay more people out, keeping people engaged.
- $20- PGA $35K Scramble (3 entry max- 4K to first) Nice prize differential between the 20 entry and 3 entry, as the same with the Fore, the scramble has found a niche with players.
- $12- PGA $30K Albatross (Sigle entry- 3K to first) The third of 4 limited entry GPP’s that DK has fallen in love with. I’m for it.
- $5- PGA $25K Eagle (3 entry max- 1K to first) Another really flat payout for a 3 entry max. That doesn’t’ surprise me as they are paying almost 2/7’s of the field.
- $3- PGA 25K Birdie (20 entry max- 1.5K to first) The second of the 20 entry max, which I just don’t get why it’s not 100K and 150 max… There’s plenty of options as I just outlined for your limited entry GPP’s, I’m just not sure why this isn’t a MME.
****Note this week is a no cut event. It creates an amazing DFS golf experience on Sunday, cause your pretty much never out of it, but certainly makes it harder to win when 100% of the lineups have 6 golfers make the weekend.
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 and up
Six players fit this salary tier.
Highest Owned: Rory-25%
Lowest Owned: Koepka-15%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Rory is making headlines this week for switching his caddie, but honestly, I don’t think that will affect his game that much. Because he’s priced a whole 600 bucks less than Spieth, and 400 less than DJ, people will jump back on him. No doubt… I don’t expect Spieth or DJ to get BELOW 20% either, especially in a no cut event. Fowler, Matsuyama, and Koepka will all be in that 18-25% range. In total, I expect about 150-200% ownership between the 6 of these guys. If the ownership projections are correct, it’s going to be hard to create a ton of variance here, using just these guys. Let’s keep in mind that with Spieth being the highest priced guy, and talked down a bit by some of the Golf-twitter side, we may see his ownership lower than expected.
Top Play: Another tough one here. Spieth has back to back top 10’s here, while DJ is the defending champ… Thing about DJ is that he hasn’t had a finish better than 15th other than that W last year. McIlroy has 4 top 10’s in 6 tries with a win…Fowler also 4 top 10’s while the other two, Mats and Koepka, don’t have that great of success here. Let’s stack either Fowler/Spieth, Fowler/Mcilroy or Spieth/Mcilroy. Not much positive variance there but we need to pick our spots.
$9,999 – $8,000:
14 golfers fit this tier.
Highest Owned: Rahm- 20%
Lowest Owned: ZJ- 5-10%
GTA: My first though when I saw this price category was, wow, Adam Scott has been in the top 50 of the OWGR for a long, long time… He’s one of three golfers (Phil and ZJ the other two) that has played every single year here @ Firestone since the 2008 tournament. Scott has been able to amass five top 10’s including a win, and the only guy in this category with that many top 10’s. Justin Rose a close second with 4… Now onto game theory. In a no cut event, Jon Rahm may be the best DFS golfer out there, but I suspect I’m not the only one to recognize that, and thus, I expect him to be the highest owned in the price category. I suspect that most people will flock to Rose and Rahm over Stenson, thus leaving him relatively low owned in that 8-13% range… It’ll be really interesting to see if people go to Day and Garcia, or dip a bit lower and go to Kuchar who has been absolute fire lately (he also has 3 top 10’s in 7 tries here).Heading down the price list we run into a a set of guys that are the high variance plays. JT has no chance to miss the cut, SINCE IT’S A NO CUT EVENT, and Berger doesn’t seem to be at odds to do the one shot withdraw this year. That leaves us with Fleetwood and Grace… I suspect we see a ton of cash lineups with the four aforementioned guys.
The Top Play: Listen we need some positive variance here… ZJ hasn’t finished worse than 33rd since 2005, so lets pair him with JT since I think people will fade because of his lackluster play as of late. ZJ/JT and Rahm if you’re not going to go up to Spieth/Rory/Rickie
22 golfers fit this category.
Highest Owned: Schwartzel -20%
Lowest Owned: Oleson- 5%
GTA :At first Glance I thought Phil would be easily the highest owned guy, but after doing a bit more research his history just isn’t good enough to justify the masses paying 700 more for Phil >Charl. Charl has two top 10’s in his last three trips here, and is coming off a good week at the Porsche Open on the Euro Tour finishing 12th. Hot golfers Cabernet-Bello and Kevin Chappell (last week specific) both fall in this price category and will mildly high owned in the high teens. After them you run into a bunch of guys that love to throw up DK points….>Watson,Holmes,Woodland… Last week both woody and Holmes scored over 100 DK points while Watson ended up in the 80s. I suspect that with all these big names in this category, including Thomas Pieters, the-X man (Xander Schauffele) may also go over looked. A ton of ways to create positive variance with this price category, and with no cut, don’t be afraid really to roster any of them!
The Top Play: Pieters/Xman I’m liking the low ownership projection from this one… if you want to get real crazy throw in Olsen with them.
$6,999 and Below:
31 golfers fit this price category.
Projections: Highest owned: Jonny Vegas- only cause he just won… 10% no more
GTA & Top Play: There are three total top 10’s for all 31 golfers in his category… A reason being probably is that there is plenty of first timer’s playing in it. With CH being little less of a factor here, we really want to focus on guys that love scoring a tremendous amount of DK points… Guys like Jimmy Walker and Patty Perez stick out to me here. Also we want to look at guys with a darn good T2G game as that’s been a recipe for success here in the past. Also a few golfers that stuck out in the “walking the course” article was Wes Bryan and Bryson Dechambeau. Both will be making their first appearance in a WGC event. Don’t be afraid to use 4 guys from this price category with two top studs and leave salary on the table… After all you need to differentiate this week with a no cut event.