Whether it’s your first time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain”. If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is the reference to the way a “green” is cut and if one is going “against the grain” you’re putting away from it.
Recap of Last Week’s Article: What a week for Against the Grain last week as I recommended to FADE/underweight Rickie AND play Berger… how bout them apples?
Personal Draft Kings Results: In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post about my results weekly, and give you my top 4 owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
A great bounce back week as I rode Phil and Berger to a second-place finish in the TD. I missed out on Varner, but luckily it didn’t hold me back.
DraftKings Contests This Week- THE BIG BOY IS BACK!!!! MILLION DOLLAR FIRST PLACE! AND OTHER HUUUUUUUUUUUGE CONTESTS.
$33 Millionaire Maker 3.5Million GTD- I think the name says it all. 150 max entries.
$3 Birdie 500K GTD– First place of 40K this 20 ENTRY MAX will be one of their biggest ever prize pools for 20 entry max.
$5 Eagle/20 Scramble/12 Albatross all 100K GTD- The albatross and scramble are 10k first place while the eagle is 5k first. Eagle/Scramble are 3 entry max tourneys and the albatross is a single entry.
$333 700K GTD– 100K first place for the first of the big $$ buy ins. 70 entry max for this tourney.
$5,300 1M GTD– The big boy this week is a million GTD with a first place of 200K! love it… I’ll be entering at least 1.
$3 50K Make the Cut and Advance- A new tourney for DK is it will be done over 2 weeks. 20 entry max and first place AFTER TOURNEY 2 (Traveler’s) is 3K. Top 6250 lineups will move on to round 2.
Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 & Above: It’s 7 this week guys… let’s look how it shakes out.
Highest Owned: Johnson- 30%
Lowest Owned: Spieth- 15%
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): First and foremost, let’s go back to the Master’s for a bit, when this entire field was together. 8 guys were over 20% owned, with 40% being the highest owned golfer (McIlroy). These numbers are skewed by about 20% because I believe DJ was trending to have at least 25+ ownership before the fall and WD. If that’s the case I think that brings Rory down to the low 30’s high 20’s and Spieth into the 20’s. So why do I bring this up? Well its simple, 4 of these guys combined for 150% ownership at the Masters so let’s say we throw in 20 more plus percent for DJ and another 15 % for the other 2, and these top 7 guys could command a total ownership of roughly 200 %. That means 1/3 of all lineups will feature at least one of these guys. I expect ownership to be roughly spread out equally, with DJ reaching close to 30% and the total of the group to equal close to 200%. I expect Spieth to be the lowest owned of the group, only due to the fact that his price is pretty high, and when you match that up with the fact that he’s probably the shortest hitter out of the group, I’m projecting him lowest owned.
Top Play: So, with so much ownership going to these guys, how can we differentiate? Well first stacking DJ/Spieth is going to be the least owned stack IMO due to their salaries…50% of your salary gone in 2 players, people just won’t do it! I do expect Fowler to come in a bit lower, so a Spieth/Fowler stack could create a ton of variance… Here’s the thing though, I like a Rahm/Spieth stack as my favorite stack of the week and top play for this category.
$9,999-$8,000: 11 golfers fit this category: Again with 11 golfers this week.
A slew of hot golfers, and one THAT IS BOUND TO PLAY….RIGHT??? Or be the best $8,500 golfer that the press booth has ever had in there… (talking Phil of course).
Highest Owned: Justin Rose- 20%
Lowest Owned: Daniel Berger- 10%
GTA: First and foremost, big congrats to my guy DANNY BERGER on defending his title… Just the 4th guy in the history of the Tour to defend a title and be under the age of 24. Wow. I expect the masses to fade him coming off the win, especially when he’s surrounded by a plethora of talent. Justin Rose was a similar price at the Masters and he garnished roughly 25% so I expect him to come in right around there. I expect most guys to be around the 10-15% ownership, garnishing around 150% total ownership for the 11 guys. At a projected ownership of no more than 15% for most guys in this category, besides Rose, this might be the price category to go real heavy on a guy and create that difference between you and the field. Oh, by the way… Don’t look now but Henrik Stenson looks to be coming into form…
The Top Play: Well, I took Danny Berger here last week, so I don’t think I can change… This time I want to pair him with JT and stay away from the Rose chalk (not saying fade) with this stack. If you want to get crazy with it, throw in Koepka who I think will be the second lowest owned guy and now you’ll create a ton of variance.
$7,999-$7,000: 27 golfers fit this category
Seems like DK wanted to place just about all the Euro guys here.
Highest Owned: Thomas Pieters- 20%
Lowest Owned: Haotong Li- 5%
GTA: If Pieters isn’t the highest owned guy in this category then I don’t know what’s going on. He does have Matt Kuchar sitting right beside him, but Pieters is shaping up to be the Ty Hatton of the Masters… That doesn’t mean I expect him to miss the cut, that just means I expect him to command a large ownership, especially after his performance at the Masters. Big game/big fall Shane Lowry, the surprise of last year’s Open, checks in at $7,300, along with former champion Martin Kaymer at $7,000. Italy’s own Francesco Molinari also comes in at $7,000 and is being talked about by almost everyone in the DFS community.
The Top Play: This category is what’s going to win someone the Milly Maker… 2 from this category, 1 from the next one, and 3 from the 2 above… If you’re high on Pieters like I am, and you believe me that he will be chalk, we need to pair him with a lower owned guy to create that variance. Chappell at this price may go overlooked as well as Gary Woodland, but for my top play it’s a Pieters/Kaymer stack.
6,999 and Below-The Rest.
Lee Westwood makes it week 5 in a row…
Highest Owned: PETER CHALK TITLIEST UIHLEIN Lee Westwood.
Lowest Owned: Per-Norm with this price category, there will be a ton of guys low owned.
GTA: One of the great things about the US Open, is that it is an open qualifier, meaning a “hack” (I’m a 3) like me can try out. Qualifications are that you require a single digit handicap. With that being said, I’m going to list the guys that haven’t had a DK start all year and the one’s in bold are the ones I will roster, Oliver Bekker, Cameron Champ, Kevin Doughtery/John Oda/ Tyler Light, Mason Anderson, Roman Robeldo, Stweart Hagestad, Nick Flanagan, Tyson Alexnder, Max Greserman, Sahith Theegala, Gene Sauers, Brad Dalke, Walker Lee, Scott Harvey, Chan Kim, Shugo Imahira, Matt Campbell, Alex Smalley, Satoshi Kodaira, Sam Ryder, Derek Barraon, Joaquin Niemann, Scott Gregory, Maverick McNealy, Chris Crawford, Jordan Niebrugge, Corey Connors, Stephan Jaeger, Jack Maquire, Talor Gooch, Scottie Scheffler. Now that this is out of the way, let’s get into the rest of this monstrosity of players below 7K. First one that jumps out is Lee Westwood. It seems really low for him. He’s coming off back to back top 20’s so his game is obviously in some decent form, and at $6,800, he is way too low to ignore, but I expect that he could come close to Adam Hadwin’s level at the Master’s which was just over 20%. A great pivot option would be Jamie Lovemark or Jimmy Walker priced at the same level.
The Top Play: How bout Jamie Lovemark… Had a great showing in the US last year placing inside the top 20. If you get that again from him this week he will provide some great value so I’ll avoid the Peter and Lee chalk and head to Jamie… Could his breakthrough win come at the U.S. Open??