Whether it’s your first-time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fan Duel’s salary list, and talks about plays and strategies that could be “against the grain.” If you’re not a golfer, putting against the grain is a reference to the way a green Ais cut and if one is going “against the grain”, you’re putting away from it. The article below is meant to be a guiding tool in creating positive variance. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins have come by going “against the grain” with some players,and pairing them with the right chalk. In the pursuit of GPP glory, it’s crucial to preserve your bankroll, to have the ability to even play in the big GPPs, thus I urge you to start with @scottimac11’s Making the Cut which teaches cash game principles.
Against The Grain — DraftKings
by: Jason Rouslin @DFSgolfer23
Recap of Last Week’s Article:
BANG! – Nailed the JT call being underowned from his position… Great week. Let’s go by price category down though.
- First- Mats/Fowler-great Mats/Jordan-Ok Mats/Rory-EH
- Second- Stenson and JT WOOOO!
- Third-Pieters Xman- woof that was bad.
- Fourth-Cantlay-came up big with 2 eagles and a bunch of other birdies…In fact he was on the milly maker team.
Personal DraftKings Results:
In a matter of full transparency, I am going to post my results weekly, and give you my top four owned guys across the board. If you’ve been following me since my days with Fantasy Golf Insider, you know it’s important that I implement some, if not all my suggested plays.
Core Players in the milly: Spieth/Mats/Kisner/Finau
Top Results: 14th in the Thunderdome earns me another cash… Helping the week be a decent four-figure win.
GPP-DraftKings Contests This Week:
- $333- 300K Club Pro (50k to first)– This high price buy in features a first place of 100k and a multiple entry of 75. wow. 1001 Total Lineups
- $33- 600K Dog Leg (100K to first) The dogleg is back after getting the back seat to the milly maker last week. 100k first to this 150 entry contest. 21019 Total Lineups
- $8- 225K Best Ball (25K to first) A flatter payout structure here for the 150 max entry giving only 10% of the total pool to the first. 36,764 Total Lineups
- $5- 1.25M FGWC Qualifier- Last qualifier here! The last couple chances to join me and @scottimac11 in the FWGC! Dk is also offering a $1k buy in for the 125th and final qualifier.
Limited Entry GPP
- $5,300- $110K Thunderdome ( 1 entry 40K to first) Just always like to throw this in to allow ya’ll to see what I’m chasing as my top dollar entry for the week. I’ll be back in with 1 lineup this week. 22 Total Lineups
- $1,500- 142K Country Club (3 entry max 25K to first) This contest becomes a bit more attractive as the $333 clup pro this week is very top heavy. 100 Total Lineups
- $150- 12K Driving Range (Single Entry 2.5K to first) A much steeper payout then the next contest on here, this single entry 150 buy in is very top-heavy paying out over 35% of the prize pool to the top 2 spots. Still a nice payout for the gamer that wins. 88 Total Entrants
- $100- 25K Long Drive( 3 entry max 5K to first) This mid price buy in is a great way for people to start to test the waters in the higher dollar buy ins. Good for someone who plays about $500 per week. 277 Total Lineups
- $20- PGA $35K Scramble (3 entry max- 4K to first) Back down to normal for the week field here.
- $12- PGA $30K Albatross (Single entry- 3K to first) The third of 4 limited entry GPP’s that DK has fallen in love with. I’m for it. 2890 Total Entrants
- $5- PGA $30K Eagle (3 entry max- 5K to first) 50K added to the eagle this week, but DK still loves the flat payout here. 1-5 will earn at least 1K, which is a really nice payout structure, if your into that sort of thing. 17647 Total Lineups
- $4- PGA $225K Fore (20 Entry max- 12.5K to first) I’ve mentioned this enough, but one last time, this is DK’s crown jewel with golf right now. 5% of the prize pool to first, allows them to pay more people out, keeping people engaged. 64,705 Total Lineups…Wowzers…
- $3- PGA 20K Birdie (20 entry max- 1.5K to first) The flat payout structure continues for these limited entry GPPs. 11764 Total Lineups.
Player Focus- Wyndham Championship
***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis, it does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise. ***
$9,000 and up.
We adjust for the lack of players priced above 10K. Now 11 players fit this mold.
Highest Owned: Bud Cauley
Lowest Owned: Henrik Stenson
GTA (Game Theory Analysis): Well if you haven’t followed twitter at all, then what I’m about to tell you will be new news to you…Stenson is in the field because to keep his status, regardless of fedex cup points earned, he needs 15 starts, not including WGC’s/Majors/Playoffs, and right now he sits at 14. He’s never played here before but does come in decent form coming in 13th, 17th, and 11th in his last three starts. I suspect he’ll be pretty low owned as he just hasn’t had it yet this year. Hometown/nearby(living quarters) Kevin Kisner comes to the Whyndam in great form, but some have questioned his mental capacity after losing the lead this past weekend. We did see something similar with Kisner earlier in the year at Eagle Point where he was coming off a win and went on to miss the cut. Bud Cauley right now is trending to the be highest owned golfer in this price category as a decent amount in the business has picked him to win the tournament outright! Definitely possible given the strength of the field. Another one I am focused on is Ryan Moore… An injury earlier this year held out him out of a few big tournaments, most notably the U.S. Open… Still he ranks 67th in the FedEx Cup and I’m sure has getting back to Atlanta, where he almost won last year, on his mind. He’s about 350 points short of that so a top 5 finish here would go a long way to helping that. Don’t forget about James Hahn who loves it here in the Carolina’s as well.
The Top Play: If my projections are accurate, how can you not play Stenson? He’s got something to play for, ranked 75th on the FedEx Cup, and needs a over 350 points to get into the top 30 of the FedEx Points. Let’s pair him up with some other names in this price category like : Hahn/Bradley/Cauley.
12 golfers fit this tier.
Highest Owned: Hun-An- 20%
Lowest Owned: Glover- 10%
GTA: 12 Guys here make up the 8000’s. Hun-An is highest ranked in terms of OWGR, and come’s into the Whyndam where he has found success in the past coming in 18th in 2015. Danny Lee also checks in here and looks mighty good according to our “Cheatsheet”. Another guy that fits here as well is Shane Lowry…Here’s a guy that had the U.S. Open in his sights, and is ranked 145th on the FedEx Cup. He needs about 70 points just to get into the playoffs that start next week, which means he’ll need a finish of 11th or better. But in reality, since a lot of people around the 125 are playing, he’ll need more like 80 or even 90 which means he needs a T7 or better. He did flash form at the PGA before falling back on the weekend. Following my top-125 narrative, Sam Saunders sits at 127, Harris English at 113, and Seamus Power at 123…talk about ON THE BRINK…These guys need to at minimum make the cut to secure themselves a chance at making the playoffs. Ben Martin sits at 116 to round up the golfers chasing that 125 number.
The Top Play: Sam Saunders sitting at 126 and coming in eighth two weeks ago are the only two reasons I’d need to play him. Throw in the fact that he’s made the cut both of the last two years here seems to set up nicely for him to make his third consecutive cut here, AND make the FedEx Cup playoffs. I’d like to stack him with Lucas Glover and Shane Lowry for my ATG-Stack.
46 golfers fit this category.
Highest Owned: Knox/Hao Tong Li
Lowest Owned: at least 10 guys will be under 10% owned in this category. I’ll highlight a few I like below.
GTA : Really tough to predict ownership here, as there are no real standouts, and also no one really getting talked up that much in the industry. Knox is the only one getting talked up even a bit, and understandable so as the stat’s and key yardages seem to match up. Other players like Ollie and Kevin Tway will garner their normal 9-13% ownership, possible higher the higher $ buy in you go, but those are the biggest names from the category. A few guys that popped up on the cheatsheet and also could fit this #125 narrative are Sabbatini and Blayne Barber… are on the outside looking and both have had a top 15 here within the last 4 years. (Sabbatini eighth here in 2013 and Barber 14th last year). After missing the cut last week on the number, LI, gets a very rare start on the PGA Tour. He has status over on the Euro Tour, but this will be one of his firsts non-major/WGC event’s he’s played in on tour. This dude from China has some serious game, and could contend to win against this field, but we don’t’ have a ton of information on him, so hits hard to get behind him 100%…Still I’m sure people will flock to him. To round out my #125 narrative here are some other guys near that mark in this category : Flores (139) Kjeldsen (154) Werenski (122) Stallings (101) Kaufman (135) Hagy(106) Mcdowell (131) Palmer (128) Varner III (138) Watney (114) Van Aswegen (115) Summerhays (124) Baddeley (133) Hearn (121) Wagner (141) Barnes (143)
The Top Play: Bunch of narrative plays here. Werenksi intrigues me has he came up just short at the Cuda a couple weeks back, and sits right on the number. Still Ollie and Tway will win on tour eventually, so its hard to get away from them… I’ll call for the Ollie/Tway stack with 1/3 (sabbs/Kaufman/Summerhays/VIII) also look at Werenski and Palmer.
$6,999 and Below
-A Ton of golfers fit his category.
Projections: Highest owned: ????? Maybe Trey Mullinax??
GTA & Top Play: Wow, I can’t believe how poor this price category is. Seriously, Trey Mullinax is one of very few highlights, and also fits my #125 narrative sitting at 132. According to our cheatsheet, former winner here, Camilio Villegas leads the optimal rating which makes sense as he’s got one of the best CH’s out of anyone in the field, let alone guys priced below 7k. Andres Gonzales placed 10th a few weeks back as a double on the 18th at the RBC cost him 100 of thousands of dollars, and ton’s of fed ex cup points leaving him in a deep hole at 158, and needing a top 5 presumably to make the playoffs. He des have a 46th and an eighth here in the last 4 years, so he’s got a chance! Another guy right near the number is John Huh (117) who hasn’t missed a cut here in four years. His best finish was third here in 2013. Now I’ll highlight some guys right at or near the 125 mark (my cut off is 150 though because below 150, they’d need a top 5 or better to make it). Owen (136) Blair (120), Ogilvy (125) Tringale (126) Poston (130) Percy (140) V.Taylor (119) Fathauer (110) Hurley III (129) Bozzelli (112) Collins (137) Henry (134) Stuard (142) Cejka (146). Roberto Castro has a TERRIBLE year but does come here having made 3 straight cuts at the Whyndam. As my top play, I like what im seeing from Jon Huh, and Camilio Veilgas. As my #125 narrative I’ll go with Tringale>Hurley III
Thats it for now guys… Come check out my synopsis and leader-board tomorrow in the ” Winning Element”. A collaborative piece by all of us here at Tour Level/ @dfsgolfer23 @scottmac11 @grantbushman and @hump_bumgardner