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First a little about myself: My name is Andy Chevalier, graduated from the University of Rhode Island with a major in Business and Communications. I’ve been playing fantasy football since 1999, right when the “Greatest Show on Turf “with the Rams first began. I started on a website called Sandbox.com, and instantly became infatuated with it. Through high school and college, I was also an amateur poker player making a pretty small living off of my success. One of my skills in poker was noticing and reading patterns, and using that to make mathematical decisions to reach my decisions. This skill transitioned seamlessly to season long fantasy football, and now daily fantasy football. Three years ago, I tried daily fantasy football for the first time, deposited a few hundred dollars, and fell in love. I was making dozens of line ups, seeing the countless combinations I could make, all with hopes of winning the big featured Sunday Million Tournament on Draft Kings. And of course, like the thousands before me, I came up empty. It wasn’t until last year that I started realizing that perhaps these huge Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP’s) tournament’s isn’t the best way to build a bankroll. So I started playing 12 man 50/50s, where only 5 of the 12 people double their money. I slowly turned $20 into $40, $40 into $80, and so on. Last year I went from in the hole $500, to earning a profit of $150. Nothing really life changing obviously, but it was a pattern I noticed. So this year I’ve dedicated 80% of my bankroll to 50/50s, and putting maybe 4 or 5 entries into the big GPP’s per week. My point here is don’t expect to win a million dollars reading my posts, but do expect to slowly grow your bankroll to maybe take a shot or two at the big GPP tournaments. Daily Fantasy Football, just like poker, is a slow and steady grind, I can give you the advice you need slowly build a bankroll.

 

Recap of Week 2

Cons:

Ezekiel Elliot – King Ezekiel getting a career low in carries is an absolute punch in the gut. Hard to see that coming, I have to admit. I could see him struggling for sure, but to get only 9 carries? That was a hard one to swallow.

Paying Up for Defense –I went against my advice on this one, but paying up for the Cardinals D/ST did not pay the dividends I was expecting it to.  They were alright, not nearly what I thought though.

 

Pro’s:

Everything else pretty much was dead on.

QBs – All the quarterbacks did well, Matt Ryan only got a 2x return, but all others did fantastic.

RBs – Melvin Gordon and Ty Mont both delivered a very good return.

WRs – Good returns from Mike Evans and Keenan Allen and both would have stacked well with their QBs, especially Allen and Rivers, at their respective price points.

TEs – My tight end suggestions of Gronk, Coby Fleener, and Zach Miller all earned three times their investment.  

Flex- Even my low budget fill in guys did great, in Cohen, Jacquizz, Kearse, and Hurns to name a few.

Week 3 

Going into this week, much of my preparation was watching actual game footage, examining the Las Vegas point spreads and game totals and looking at the stat lines and beyond, like snap counts, targets, Yards after the Catch (YAC-WR) and Yards after Contact (YAC-RB).

It’s becoming hard to find that rock solid high priced guy that just performs every week. Le’veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, A.J Green, Demarco Murray, LeSean Mccoy, all guys at the near top of the price tag list, have not put up back to back consistent performances.

Couple guys who have though, are Ty Montgomery, Karem Hunt, and I hate to say it but Todd Gurley. These guys appear to be the consistent 3 down backs that have been getting it done. I didn’t think we would live in a world where Le’veon Bell and  Julio Jones aren’t getting it done every week, but here we are. We will to continue to focus on consistency, because that is one of the keys to success in daily fantasy football

 

QUARTERBACKS:

This week I see a lot of options at QB.

First off, you can never EVER go wrong with Aaron Rodgers ($7,300) at home. The guy is automatic, and like I said last week he’s currently the best quarterback in football, especially at home.

Derek Carr (6,800) and Matthew Stafford ($6,200) both have great matchups, have great offenses, and continue to perform. Stafford will be low owned in tournaments/GPP’s because of his disappointing performance against the Giants, and he shouldn’t be. The guy threw the ball just over 20 times, so his stats looked lack luster compared to his usual self. But against the Falcons, in Detroit, expect a shootout.

Derek Carr going to Washington for Sunday Night football will also have tons of scoring. Both teams should be slinging the rock, and I’m expecting a lot of points on the board. For the same reason, I also like Kirk Cousins ($6,100) at home with a very high game total with a very small spread, but probably ranked 4th on my list.

 

Value (or low priced) QBs:

I’m expecting at least 15 pts, from:

DeShone Kizer ($5,000) vs Indy and

Deshaun Watson ($4,700) vs The Patriots

Both of these quarterbacks are facing defenses that have struggled pretty bad against the pass so far this season. If Carson Palmer can do well against you…you probably don’t have a great defense. Hate to say it too, but the Patriots have shown they have major holes in their secondary, and have struggled against mobile quarterbacks in the past. These guys aren’t going to throw for 300 and 4 touchdowns any time soon, but I could see 250 and maybe 2 tds, maybe a rushing touchdown, nothing crazy, but enough to get you a solid return on your money.

 

GUYS I AM AVOIDING IN DAILY:

Cam Newton ($6,600) and

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,200)

I’ve seen this movie, I know how it ends: Fantasy Football Fans see the fantasy match up, and fall in love with it and load up. Let me save you the frustration, Cam Newton just isn’t the same guy anymore. He hasn’t thrown for at least 250 yards yet this season, and he has faced Buffalo and San Francisco…not exactly top tier defenses.  Last year week 11, I tried to do this stack up. Saints going to Carolina? Hell yeah! Load up Panthers and Cam Newton! Only to be sadly let down, watching Cam throw for less than 200 yards and only 1 touchdown. Big Ben is the same story different headline. Roethlisberger is a great fantasy quarterback…when he is home. Guy is night and day when away versus playing at home. Great matchup against Chicago: absolutely. But don’t expect that 3x return from Big Ben on the road this week.

 

RUNNINGBACKS:

I mentioned them earlier, but I’m going to have a pretty good amount of:

Karem Hunt ($8,000)

Ty Montgomery  ($6,900) and

Devonta Freeman ($6,700)

The more I watch Karem Hunt, the more I am believing the guy under Andy Reid’s system is just going to succeed no matter what. He plays all 3 downs, catches passes, runs the rock hard, and he just might be this year’s Ezekiel Elliot. Ty Montgomery also has a great matchup at home against the Bengals. I expect a lot of goal like work, along with passes out of the backfield for Ty Mont just like we saw last week against the Falcons.  And finally I like Devonta Freeman against the Lions. Freeman I believe would not be priced this low if he played during the day on  Sunday. Draftkings doesn’t seem to adjust their prices after the Sunday Night/Monday Night results, so I think Devonta for $6,700 is a great bargain in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week.

 

RB Game Theory: This week however I think it is smart play to pay down for some running backs who are in the middle price tier. I am going to have a decent amount of shares of:

Tarik Cohen ($5,600)  

Theo Riddick ($5,100)

Javorius Allen ($5,000) and

Alvin Kamara ($4,000)

All with pretty good match ups, and are backs who catch passes. If you pair one of these up with Karem Hunt, you will have a great start to a solid line up.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

This week I’m having trouble finding a high price lock Wide Receiver. Only lock I saw, if he plays, is Jordy Nelson ($7,800) at home. He has practiced in full this week, and his stats at home are next level. Because of that, I also am big on Devante Adams ($5,600). I think his price tag is way too low, especially given the possibility that Jordy won’t even play. If by some chance Jordy doesn’t play, Davante is a must no brainer start.

Another guy I am targeting is Golden Tate ($6,900) versus Atlanta. I really wish the Lions played during the day Sunday so his price would be lower, because he only caught 4 passes Monday night against the Giants. As I mentioned this is due to the fact that Stafford threw the ball only 20 times. Tate is a PPR monster, and though I don’t think this is a phenomenal price, I believe he will get a 20 point performance against the Falcons.

I am also predicting a come out party Sunday night from Terrell Pryor ($5,900). Cupcake matchup at home versus Oakland. If he can’t do it here then I’m not sure he ever will. I’m going to roll with him in a lot of my line ups, I suggest you do too.

 

For inexpensive fill in plays, I am very big on:

Jermaine Kearse ($4,600)

Rishard Matthews ($4,100) and

Rashard Higgins ($4,000)

 

TIGHT ENDS:

This weekend only 4 tight ends will be in play for me. First one will be Zach Ertz ($5,000) against the Giants. That’s a big price for a tight end that was $3,400 week 1, but the guy is getting a ton of targets, and has gotten a solid return on investment the last 2 weeks.  I will put him in my line ups this week against the Giants who let up a great game against Eric Ebron on Monday.

Next one is Austin Hooper ($3,700) against the Lions. Lions have also struggled against tight ends, and Austin Hooper has proved to have monster games in the past.  I also am putting in Jack Doyle ($3,600) against a struggling Cleveland defense. The Browns have let up huge games the past 2 games against tight ends Jesse James, and Ben Watson, and Doyle has been getting the majority of targets in Indy. Finally, I like Ed Dickson ($2,700) against the Saints. Replacing Greg Olsen, and with a great matchup, I don’t think it will be difficult for him to get at least 10 points this Sunday.

 

D/ST’s:

The 3 D/ST’s I’m targeting this week are:

The Packers ($3,400) against the Bengals

The Eagles ($3,000) against The Giants

The Panthers ($2,600) against the Saints.

Andy Dalton has already thrown 4 picks in a game and the team is getting a new offensive coordinator. Also liking The Eagles who have had huge defensive games in the past, and I don’t need to go into detail on how Eli Manning has been known to make throwing mistakes in the past. Finally, I think the Panthers are a great low percentage owned option for a D/ST against the Saints. The Panthers D has been solid, and Bree’s occasionally struggles on the road.  

 

RECAP:

So far in the NFL there hasn’t been a lot of scoring. 4 teams in the NFL have only scored 1 touchdown in 2 games, and the huge banner names of the NFL, Odell Beckham, Le’veon Bell,  Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, the 4 highest priced guys on Draftkings this week have all yet to even find the end zone.  All you can do is keep track of the stats every week and find out who is consistently performing to better estimate who will perform well in their next game.

 

Good luck this week, feel free to post any Daily Fantasy Football questions, or season long line up questions below!

Follow me on Draft Kings if you want, 401crew1 . Good luck everyone!