Hey fantasy fans! Just finished the first quarter of the season, and things are going well!
Week 4 Recap:
What went wrong:
The Denver offense did not show up against Oakland as was expected. Trevor Siemian only getting a 2x return on his investment, and his WR’s also struggled. Emmanuel Sanders with an awful 6 points, and Demaryius Thomas even worse with 2 points. With Oakland struggling horribly offensively, the need to air it out didn’t really happen, so that attributed to these results. Matt Ryan also struggled big time in a losing effort against the Bills only getting 11.5 points. Losing his WR’s Sanu and Julio Jones due to injury was probably a big probably a big reason for this lack of success as well.
What went right.
Tyler Kroft being in literally every single one of my line ups luckily pushed me into the green this week. Kroft got that slam dunk 10x return helped out big time. Deshawn Watson with another very strong performance, hooking up DeAndre Hopkins also getting a great return. All the running backs I suggested also did very well, King Ezekiel, Todd Gurley, CJ Anderson, and Dalvin Cook before him getting that unfortunate season ending injury. Even my deep value guys did very well, Bilal Powell, Wendall Smallwood, and even Jacquizz Rodgers just got a 3X return.
Again consistency is key…Gurley and Hopkins just continue to get it done. I am learning that paying for the value QB might be the way to go, these high priced quarterbacks just aren’t getting the results compared to some of these more value options, Alex Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, DeShone Kizer, etc.
Probably the most common quarterback picked this week will be Dak Prescott ($6,800) facing the Packers in the highest over/under of the week in vegas at 52.5 points Dak has a great matchup and is hard to not put in your line ups. Dak has had at least a 3x return in every single one of his games this season so far, that combined with facing a struggling defense equals a strong consideration for your line ups. Another option I am looking at is Eli Manning ($6,100) at home against the Chargers. With O’Dell Beckham back Eli has been getting it done. Earning over 27 points in his last 2 games with Beckham back is a trend you can’t ignore. As frustrating it is to trust Eli Manning, this is the week to use him for this great price.
For less expensive options I am liking Brian Hoyer ($4,700) against the Colts and Josh McCown ($4,500) against the Browns. Both quarterbacks aren’t on the best offensive teams in the NFL, but more importantly are facing 2 of the worst defenses in football currently. If these guys can get you anything over 15 points, then you are free rolling. If you want to load your line ups with stud RB’s and WR’s, you are going to need to put these guys in your line ups. Joe Flacco ($4700) with lower ownership projection this is another cheap pivot against a defense giving up the 28th most points to QBs, With Baltimore RB situation and coming off a 48 pass attempt effort, Flacco is worth a shot
King Ezekiel ($8,800) against the Packers? Yup. He is the second most expensive RB this week, but the matchup is too good to pass up. Take away the fluke Denver game, Elliot is getting over 20 carries a week and catching at least 3 balls a week. He is a lock for 24 points this week. Leonard Fournette ($7,000) is also a rock solid option this week as well. One of the only 3 running backs right now averaging over 20 carries a game, he is catching passes, and putting up results. My only concern is that if the Steelers get a big lead, he might not be used as much But like I said, he is averaging over 4 targets a game, so the concern is minimal.
Melvin Gordon ($6,000) against the Giants has a price tag I just can’t ignore this week. He is a top 10 running back, who virtually had a BYE last week, only touching the ball 11 times last week. The injury was a clear concern last week, but he is off the injury report now and is 100%. The Giants D-Line is not 100% healthy, and Gordon should get used a lot. Jamaal Williams ($5,000) is also a name to monitor. Right now, he is somehow slated to play. He is officially off the injury report, and is ready to go. If you are getting a starting Packers running back for under $6k, is a must play bargain price to take advantage of. But you have to monitor to see the health situation, and if Ty Montgomery somehow plays with broken ribs.
This is probably the kiss of death for daily fantasy, but Wayne Gallman ($3,900) at home against the Chargers seems like a great price. Paul Perkins ruled out for this Sundays game, got 11 carries and caught 2 balls for a touchdown last week. I get it, suggesting a Giants running back is probably an awful idea, but if you watched the game he looked better in 1 half of a football than any Giant’s RB has all season long. Given his price tag, and expected work load increase, he is a good value this week. Also Eddie Lacy ($3,400) might be a price tag you can’t ignore. The Seattle backfield is a mess, that can’t be denied. But $3,400 for a starting running back on an above average offensive team in the Seahawks, is just something you can’t ignore.
Antonio Brown ($8,400) at home against the Jaguars. Key words being there: AT HOME. Here’s my logic, regardless of price, is Antonio Brown is home, I am playing him. Plain and simple. The guy is a consistency machine, gets those monster 30 point games as well. The Jaguars defense is legit, but Brown is simply just too good, especially at home.
My 3 favorite value WR’s are Jarvis Landry ($5,800) RIshard Matthews ($5,400) and Martavis Bryant ($5,000). Jarvis Landry is averaging an outstanding 11 targets a game, and has at least 6 catches in every game. He hasn’t found the endzone yet, but has a great match up against the Titans, and will be in a lot of my line ups. I also like his counter part Devante Parker ($6,600), but is almost $1,000 more. His opponent Rishard Matthews also makes my list yet again. No Corey Davis facing a below average Dolphins defense, he should get a steady work load. If Marcus Mariota does not play, I will probably reduce my shares of Rishard, but I still like his match up. Finally maybe my favorite play of the week is Martavis Bryant for $5,000. Guy is night and day when playing at home, similar to his quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If they give Antonio Brown double coverage, Bryant could be in line for some homerun plays. For what he could return, his price tag is phenomenal. TY Hilton ($6000) is another sneaky play because noone wants to roster Colts players. Two weeks ago in a home matchup TY had 9 targets. We saw what the Rams did to the 49ers defense.
We are that point where Charles Clay ($4,800) is just in play now every week. The guy has had at least 15 fantasy points 3 times so far this season, leads his team in targets, and averaging almost 5 catches a game. Decent match up against the Bengals, he has proven to be Tyrod Taylor’s favorite option in the passing game.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500) wins the tight end lottery this weeks and gets to face the Browns. Browns just continue to let up points against the Browns, making Tyler Kroft look like a superstar last week. In addition, Austin has been getting looks. At least 4 catches in his last 2 games, he is a great value option at tight end this week.
Eagles ($3,100) at home against Carson Palmer is a very safe option. Palmer is 3rd in the league in interceptions thrown with 5 so far. Eagles have been known to have big games defensively at home in the past, this is very safe option. Also the Ravens ($2,900) facing EJ Manuel and the Oakland Raiders. This is the lowest point total of the week in Vegas at just 39 points, this also seems like a very safe option.
If you want to go a little less expensive, the Bills ($2,600) against the Bengals is also a great play. Also a very low point total in Vegas in 39.5 points right now, that combined with knowing Andy Dalton is known to make mistakes, equals a good match up for the Bills D/ST.
Keep grinding Fantasy Football fans…the struggle is real! It is very tough to find that consistency every week. But the dust is settling, and we are starting to see what works. Going cheap at QB seems to be a consistent good option, along with paying up for some of those lock RB’s and WR’s. Finding those less expensive value options is what separates you from a win and a loss in your daily line ups, and I’m hoping I’m helping bridge that gap.
Good luck this week fans, follow me on Draftkings at 401crew1. Any questions, please leave them below. See you next week!