As I said in my first article, picking specific golfers (especially with a one week sample size) is HARD. Some of us surprisingly cashed a nice 12/1 parlay fading the “Andercurse” of DJ, Rahm and Dufner. Can you imagine what the payout would have been if you added Rory, JDay, Stenson, Noren, Rahm, Rose and Scott? That’s right- 8 of the top 12 players in the world (75%!) failed to even MAKE THE CUT. What this tells you very plainly is that golf is a volatile sport. Barring an injury, Lebron would never score 2 points in the first 2 quarters and then be benched for the final 2 quarters. Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would never be benched in the 2nd half simply for throwing a few interceptions in the first half. But that’s what happens in golf. Have 2 bad days (sometimes it really only takes one) and the caddy is the one swinging the clubs over the weekend. However, this is precisely the variance and volatility that we need to embrace because not only is it part of what makes DFS golf great- it also presents ample opportunity to for us to do what we all come here for- to make some cold, hard, $$$$$$$$.
Sadly, last week didn’t turn out any of those $$$ for us. Jordan Spieth’s solid Sunday moved us up into a cashing position but Justin Thomas was unable to replicate his 63 from Saturday and I was unable to overcome a 4/6 disadvantage. Because neither DraftKings nor FanDuel are hosting any freerolls this week- I have decided to call a bit of an audible on the column- at least until the British open when I expect there to be some more freerolls. It’s finally time to cash in some of those FPPs and FDPs! I have chosen to use just enough to also match the min deposit on each site- $5 on DK and $10 on FD- so that is also an option for you if you are a new player and haven’t yet accumulated the points. If you are so new to DFS golf that you have nothing but a couple of “Mr. Blutarski” account balances, hit me up on twitter (@twoputtbogey) and we will see what we can work out to get you in the mix.
As I said before, this column will be about everything except actual player selection. Meaning WHO I am playing is going to be significantly less important than HOW they are being played. Now of course, rostering a bunch of min salary guys isn’t exactly optimal. Use the resources you have to make informed decisions. Once they’re made- create a very high barrier to change. This is the only way I have found to not only be able to rest peacefully on Sunday nights, but also to hone your skills as a DFS player.
I want to start at the very tip of the iceberg- “The Process”. I can almost hear you few 76er fans out there echoing, “Trust, Trust, Trust” I kid-at least you have direction. My Magic have been floundering in sub-mediocrity, rudderless for 10 years. But I digress. The Process (more appropriately the adherence thereto) is the single most important thing you can do in preparing yourself for success in DFS golf. It is the foundation upon which you will build your game. Without it, cocktails with buddies/ dinner with your wife on Wednesday (and now Friday) night turns into entering more than your bankroll allows, likely in higher stakes than you should be playing. It could be entering a duplicate lineup or, gasp, leaving a reserved entry unfilled. I have just used 144 words to describe what can be summarized below:
Have a process, WRITE IT DOWN, stick to it EVERY week you play.
It doesn’t have to be complicated. Just start writing. Do something every day. I have included mine as an example of how simple and easy to adhere to it is.
- Friday before: Check out the field for the next week. This usually is up on the PGA website around 5 est. Who’s in/out? How many of those guys are playing this week? How many might be coming over from another tour?
- Saturday: Track how the guys who are playing next week are playing on the weekend. Anybody going low? Any statistical anomalies?
- Sunday: Course preview. Look at all the holes- what type of shot shape is needed here. What type of player will this course suit? Jimmie does most of the legwork for you here with his Tee2Green article which comes out Sunday nights.
- Monday: Game selection. You should know exactly what games you are playing by the time you go to bed Monday. This will be covered in entirety next week. An essential to proper Bankroll Management
- Tuesday: Podcasts. I like to listen to all of the podcasts between Monday and Tuesday. They come out on varying days but this is a great way to get a feel for the industry and ownership %. Who’s chalk, who isn’t. I think somebody writes an article on that as well….
- Wednesday: Roster Construction- will also be covered in its entirety in a separate article. The act of putting (digital) pen to paper and filling the spots you saved Monday with actual rosters.
Your process doesn’t need to look exactly like mine. If you want to use it as a template and a place to start, that’s great- I wouldn’t post it if I didn’t think at least some of you would use it. Remember that your process isn’t rigid. It’s not set in stone- the first thing you right down isn’t what NEEDS to stay there forever. Play a week and don’t like something? Scratch it. Best friend is getting married Saturday and can’t watch? DVR it and push it to Sunday. The point is START. The first step is infinitely harder than all of the subsequent ones.
As for this week at the Travelers, I will be putting my Bankroll to work at a 80% cash, 20% GPP breakdown, with my BR starting at $5 on each site. 2 cash lineups with a total of four(two per lineup) $1 cash game entries. For those of you making a deposit (or using points on FD) make sure they are H2H. Those using points on DK be sure to enter the double ups with the fewest number of entrants. The remaining $1 in entry fees will be broken down into (4) $0.25 quarter Jukebox entries on DK. Because FD doesn’t have anything lower than $1 GPPs- I will seek out a single entry as to limit the exposure (and advantage) that other players will have over me since that’s all I’ll be entering anyhow. Much of the reasoning and math behind these selections will be covered next week’s article on game selection. Check back with the TL guys this week about what players should be comprising these rosters.
To those of you who have read the first few weeks- thank you. I hope that you have enjoyed reading as much as I have writing. This is a very exciting journey and I am thrilled to have you all along for the ride.
If you have any questions at all about game selection, thoughts specific to your bankroll, etc- be sure to get in touch on twitter @twoputtbogey. Hopefully next week we get a shot at a few more freerolls!
Also- much has been made about this golf twitter pizza party. I can assure all of you if we get to our stated 10k goal- there will be a pizza party to which you are all invited at my house for the Arnold Palmer Invitational- probably 2019!