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Barclays Premier League 

08.12.2017 Match Week One: 

  1. Chelsea v Burnley (Vegas -500) – 

Chelsea accrued 93 points last year with a record of 30 wins, 5 losses and 3 draws. This was a dominant season and even more so at home where they won 17 of 19 at home. Not only is Chelsea heavily favored in the opening weekend but is a 3 to 1 favorite to repeat. As far as probability goes, this is likely the safest bet on the board as they have won 2 of the last 3 premier league titles. Chelsea plays stifling defense while outscoring opponents 55-17 at home and 30-16 on the road.

Notes: Made to FA CUP final, with their leading scorer Diego Costa (20 goals) but Costa may be on his way out of the team and this is something to watch closely

Transfers IN: Alvaro Morata ($70 million Real Madrid), Thomas Bakayoko (Monaco $40 million), Antonio Rudiger (Roma $34 million), Willy Caballero (MCI Free)

 

  1. Man City v Brighton (Vegas -350) –

This week Man City take the show on the road to newly promoted Brighton. The focus will be on Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City to see if they are up to the task of being the favorite to win the EPL title in 2017/2018 season. Last year they finished third in the Premier League and qualified for UEFA Champions League (League for the best teams in Europe). Their top scorer was Sergio Aguero with 20 goals, who has been their leading scorer for six consecutive seasons.

Transfers IN: Bernardo Silva (Monaco $43 million), Ederson Moraes (Benfica $34.7 million), Kyle Walker (TOT $50 million), Danilo (Real Madrid $26.9 million), Benjamin Mendy (Monaco $49 million)

In our opinion this is the most improved team on the slate, considering the first full season for striker Gabriel Jesus who has the potential for 25+goals. This in addition to newly acquired Danilo and offensive minded wing backs Walker/Mendy will allow MCI to squeeze defensively and bomb forward.

 

  1. Everton vs. Stoke City (Vegas -160) 

Everton opens as favorites at home (Goodison Park) where they won 13 out of their 19 games at home after finishing 7th last season in the EPL. Coached by Ronald Koeman, Everton will do their best to push for a top 4 league finish and are 50 to 1 odds to actually win the Premier League title

Transfers IN: Davy Klassen (Ajax $23.5million), Jordan Pickford (Sunderland $30million), Keane (Burnley $30million), Sandro Ramirez (Malaga $5million), Wayne Rooney (Man Utd: Undisclosed), Cuco Martina (Free)

Transfer Outs: Romelu Lukaku (Man United $90 million), Gerard Deulofeu (Barcelona $10.5 million)

Had a gaping loss in the offseason of Romelu Lukaku who scored 25 times which was second in EPL behind Totenham’s Harry Kane (29 goals).

 

Very talented list of players which will add strength to their goal-tending with the young stud Pickford, Back end defense with Keane, Leadership with Rooney, and scoring with Klassen and Sandro Ramirez.

 

  1. Southampton vs Swans (Vegas -157)

Also opening up as favorites at home after finishing 8th in the league last season. With new coach Pellegrino at the helm, Southampton is 150 to 1 to win the Premier League. These are decent odds for a tea that made EFL Cup final last season with leading scorer Nathan Redmond (7 goals).

They only managed 6 points from their last 8 matches and really have some concerns about scoring enough goals. Rumor has it they will lose a stud defenseman on their back-end as Liverpool readying a $60 million dollar offer for Virgil Van Dijk. However, until that happens the strength of Southampton is their ball possession and that they are a very solid technical team

Player to watch: Manolo Gabbiadini in his first full season

Transfer In: Jan Bednarek (Lech Poznan, Undisclosed)

 

  1. Crystal Palace vs. Huddersfield Town (Vegas -125)

The Palace are faves at home vs the newly promoted Huddersfield Town. CP struggled last year and finished 14th in Premier League with one point less than the previous year. A certain bright spot was their leading scorer was Christian Benteke with 15 goals. This team’s strength is they score goals or going forward: Benteke, Zaha, and Puncheon. This is counter-balanced by their glaring weakness is the back line with their defense. They will need to sign Sakho and that is something to watch going forward.

Transfers In: Jairo Riedewald (Ajax $8million)

Transfers Out: Mandanda (Marseille, undisclosed)

 

  1. West Brom Albion v AC Bournemouth (Vegas +145) 

This is the oldest team in EPL and they open up at home v AC Bournemouth with 2.5 goals expected. They finished 10th last season but 4 points better than 2015/2016. Their top goal scorer was Salomon Rondon with 8 goals.

Transfers IN: Jay Rodriguez (Southampton $15 million), Ahmed Hegazi (Al Ahly loan)

This is another team that needs to score more goals and JayRod should help with this endeavor. This is one of the best teams in the league at set pieces (plays), and really strong defensive unit

 

  1. AC Bournemouth vs. West Brom (Vegas +240)

With 2.5 goals expected, ACB is a slight underdog range and the real question this season will be; can manager Eddie Howe take ACB to next level? They finished 9th last season in the top half of the table. Their top scorer is the exciting Joshua King (16 goals last season), who leads an ACB team that certainly can score 55 goals (more than Man United’s 54).

Transfers IN: Nathan Ake (Chelsea $20 million), Begovic (Chelsea $10million), Jermain Defoe (Sunderland, Free)

The veteran Jermain Defoe is 34 years old but scored 15 goals last year for Sunderland and will hope to continue the ACB offensive dominance. The real question is whether it will be enough to overcome the weakness that is inherent when a team plays a very open style, pushing forward frequently which can lead to a shaky back end defensively.

 

  1. Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace (Vegas +380) 

The Terriers are home “dogs” this week and will start their season long goal to avoid being in the bottom three (aka relegation out of the Premier League). They finished 5th with 81 points (an improvement of 30 from the previous season) in the Championship (league below Premier League). Their top scorer was Elias Kachunga who scored 12 goals last season and should be monitored to see if his skills transfer to the big show.

Transfers In: Stevie Mounie (Montpelier $11.4million), Laurent Depoitre (Porto $3.5million), Aaron Mooy (ManCity $8million), Tom Ince (Derby $10million), Kasey Palmer (Chelsea, loan), Kachunga (Ingolstadt $1.1million)

Players to watch: Steveie Mounie scored 14 goals for Montpelier last season and is only 22 years old

 

  1. Swansea City vs. Southhampton (Vegas +450) 

Another road dogs at Southampton , Swansea was 8-8-3 last season. For the Swans it’s all about Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic international may still leave the team, (9 goals/13 assists), one of the league’s best playmakers but for now he is here and should garner DFS line-up consideration. Fernando Llorente (monitor health concerns) has also been very important as he tied for 10th in the league with 15 goals last season. The Swans finished 15th last year, 3 points less than 2015/2016 season, many believe they will be in another relegation fight this season and if the seasons starts that way, they should be targeted as one of the weaker squads for DFS purposes. (It appears Sigurdsson won’t play this weekend, he wants to transfer)

Transfers In: Roque Mesa (Las Palmas $11 million), Tammy Abraham (Chelsea Loan)

If the Swans do have a strength, it is that they maintain good possession and this should remain solid going forward but their weakness at fullback and defense overall is a larger concern.

 

  1. Stoke City vs. Everton (Vegas +480)

Stoke opens up on the road vs. Everton and only had 4 road wins in 19 tries last season. They barely retained their status finishing 13th in EPL last year down 4 points than 2015/2016 season and they look to stop their downward trend. If they hope to stop the trend they will need more than just 7 goals from Peter Crouch their leading scorer. Another alarming trend is that they conceded 56 goals last season and this was more than at any point in last 8 seasons.

Transfers In: Fletcher (West Brom, free), Josh Tymon (Hull), Zouma (Chelsea loan)

Exciting Player: Xherdan Shaqiri (ex Bayern Munich player), Zouma if he stays healthy very solid defenseman

Their major weakness is will they score goals and will they stop letting so many balls find the back of the net.

 

  1. Brighton & Hove Albion (Vegas +1000)

BHA are home dogs this week vs. Man City who are the favorite to win the Premier League this season, so tread lightly if you are looking for DFS value plays or handsomely paying parlay options. This is not to say that BHA can’t hang around and have decent pedigree. They finished second in the Championship last season, only down a point from their 2015/2016 campaign and earned a promoted to Premier League. Look for top scorer Glen Murray (23 goals last season) to find the back of the net but remember even those weren’t premier league goals, true finishers will find a way to score regardless of their level, it will be interesting to track his progression.

Transfers In: Matthew Ryan (goalie: Valencia 6 million), Pascal Gross (Ingolstadt $2.55 million), Kerr (Celtic, free) Suttner (Ingolstadt undisc), Izzy Brown (Chelsea loan)

Players to watch: Anthony Knockaert: One of the best players in the Championship last season

One potential weakness of this club will be their ability to produce enough scoring chances and in turn bounce back when top tier premiere clubs hang 4-5 goals on them.

 

  1. Burnley V. Stamford Bridge  (Vegas +135) 

Burnley are big time underdogs on road at Stamford Bridge vs. the defending champions Chelsea (see above). The Burnley Clarets finished 16th +5 points from their underwhelming 2015/2016 season. A bright spot in an otherwise difficult season is that they won 33 of their 40 points at home last season. However the other side of that coin is that they had just one win on the road last season in 19 chances so that doesn’t bode well vs the Blues this weekend

Transfers IN: Jon Walters (Stoke City), Charlie Taylor (Leeds), Jack Cork (Swansea)

Transfers Out: Keane (Everton $30M)

Clarets season will depend on maintaining their home dominance. They must make improvements to their road game to take them from a solid defensive club with a really solid goalie in Tom Heaton to a contender in the EPL. If not so improvement is made, Burnley becomes a team to target in DFS anytime they take their show on the road.

 

 

2017-2018 Top EPL Goal Scorer:
Sergio Aguero (MCI 10.2 DK) 6 to 1
Alvaro Morata (CHE 8.6 DK) 8 to 1
Diego Costa (CHE 9.1 DK) 9 to 1
Gabriel Jesus (MCI 9.8DK) 9 to 1
Eden Hazard (CHE 9.4DK) 22 to 1
Christian Benteke (CRY 7.8DK) 22 to 1
Michy Batshuayi (CHE 8.4 DK) 28 to 1
Manolo Gabbiadini (SOU 6.9 DK) 33 to 1
Charlie Austin (SOU 7.1DK) 33 to 1
Sandro Ramirez (EVE 7.1DK) 40 to 1
Jermain Defoe (BOU 6.3DK) 40 to 1
Joshua King (BOU 7.5DK) 50 to 1
Wayne Rooney (EVE 7.3DK) 50 to 1
Callum Wilson (BOU 3.5DK) 66 to 1
Fernando Llorente (SWA 6.1DK) 66 to 1
Tammy Abraham (SWA 3.5DK) 66 to 1
Kevin DeBruyne (MCI 10.4DK) 80 to 1
Leroy Sane (MCI 7.2DK) 80 to 1
Bernardo Silva (MCI 6.7DK) 80 to 1

 

TEAM PREVIEW: Odds to Win Premier League
ManCity 33 to 20
Chelsea 3 to 1
ManUnited 33 to 10
Tottenham 7 to 1
Arsenal 10 to 1
Liverpool 12 to 1
Everton 50 to 1
Leicester 100 to 1
Southampon 150 to 1
Newcastle 200 to 1