At Tour Level, our one and only goal is to help you make the best informed decisions you can make, and hopefully along the way, earn a little profit. All of our content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your “fantasy” and betting golf decisions in the best way you can. After polling much of the membership, it’s obvious that the structure of this article, our signature article, can use some clarifications and tune-ups. From now on we will be going “up and down” the odds and salaries, and we will list our favorite plays from each price to odds ratio. We will break it out over four different criteria.
Last Week’s Results:
For the second week in a row we picked the winner here at Tour Level. We also crossed the 92% THRESHOLD of making the cut… Wow what a week, one of our best ever!
Quicken Loan’s National Player Focus:
***Note this article highlights our favorite plays in each said criteria. If the player is not listed, that does not mean we are recommending fading them, we just simply don’t see them as our play in the respected price category. Players are listed numerical from our favorite play to just some of our favorites.
Criteria 1: The Favorites
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
· DraftKings: 12,000-8,999- 10 Possibilities
· Fan Duel 11,000-7,999- 8 Possibilities
· Odds- Better than 40/1- 12 Possibilities
- Patrick Reed (14/1 DK-$11,100 FD- $9,800) If you read the “against the grain” series, Patrick Reed is our favorite to win. He’s motivated on two fronts – 1. To make the President’s Cup team (without being a captain’s pick) 2. Make it back to Maui. He’s been close over the last month with 5 top 20’s in 5 of his last 6 starts and comes to Maryland as the “second” best playing in the field.
- Tony Finau (33/1 DK-$9,100 FD- $8,700) A DFS Darling, and for good reason as Tony averages almost 80 DK points per start over his last 4. With an expected winning score in the single digits combined with a weaker field, Tony should be able to stay close to the top of the leaderboard all week. Last week, Fee-now even gained strokes with the putter, which is by far and away the worst part of his game.
- Kevin Chappell (25/1 DK-$9,200 FD- $8,000) Taking a break after the U.S. Open, where he finished inside the top 25, and prior to that made his last 3 cuts. A 4th place at the FedEx St.Jude Classic shows his form is there, and soon, his “major” form will be there too. Look for Chappell to continue the strong form into this week, and beyond, as I’m sure making President’s Cup is in his sights now.
- Rickie Fowler (8.5/1 DK-$12,000 FD- $10,200) He’s the odd’s favorite and highest priced guy on both sites…That is the only reason why he’s below the other 3 guys at this point. At 12K he would have to win, and win by like 5 to push the 10x return. At 8.5/1 as well, it’s just not great value, but if that number drops, we want to be keeping an eye on it.
- Brendan Steele (25/1 DK-$8,900 FD $8,800) I know Steele doesn’t fit one of these criteria, but his odds implications say that it should. He’s also a DK point machine and has been around the top of leaderboard all year! A bit of an injury scare around The Master’s but that has seem to pass him by.
Criteria 2: High End- Value Section
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
· DK- 8999-8,000= 10- possibilities
· FD- 7999-7000- 8 possibilities
· Odds- 40/1-75/1- 15 possibilities
- Ollie Schniederjans- (66/1 DK-$8,300 FD-$7,100) This hat-less wonder has all the talent in the world. He peaked, and popped, at the British Open as amateur a few years back, and now starts his pursuit to get back there, and a win this week would do just that. A little expensive on DK, but great value on FD and outright. Statically speaking, Ollie ranks 32nd on Tour in SGAPP gaining just shy of a half a stroke.
- Bud Cauley- (50/1 DK-$7,700 FD-$7,600) One of the best values on the DK board when comparing odds to price, and it shows as FD only has him $100 less. If you follow the Tour, and specifically Bud, you know that he struggles on the greens. However, he’s 6th best on Tour in terms of SGAPP, and with a low winning score expected, Cauley may not need to make a ton of putts this week to contend.
- Byeong Hun-An- (50/1 $-8,600 FD- $7,600) Hun-An had a rather disappointing start last week by his standards amassing only 56 DK points and 59 FD points. That marks the 3rd time in 4 starts that he did not provide a 10x return. He is one of the better players in this field, and is bound to win on Tour eventually. Statistically speaking, he struggled last week with the putter losing over a stroke to the field. The stat that worried me a little bit more was his SGAPP, where he ranks 20th on the season, but ranked 46th last week and only hit 72% of his greens from the fairway. Look for him to bounce back this week @ TPC Potomac.
Criteria 3: Low-end value section
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
· DK 7999-7000-46 possibilities
· FD- 6999-6000- 27 possibilities
· Odds 75/1- 125/1- 23 possibilities
- Chuckie Sticks the Third (AKA Charles Howell III) (75/1 DK-$7,000 FD $6,500) We last saw Charles the week after the Masters at the RBC Heritage where he finished 55th. He hasn’t missed a cut all year, 9/9, with two top 10’s. That kind of consistency and possible upside is what we like to see in this value. The long layoff may come with a bit of rust, so an all-in recommendation isn’t feasible.
- Kevin Streelman- (50/1 DK- $7,400 FD- $6,300) A tough value on the betting side, but Streelman comes in with good value on both DFS sites. A Matt Kuchar-esk backdoor at the Traveler’s for Kevin, as he was able to nab his first top 10 of the season. Placing 38th last week in terms of SGAPP, Streelman’s game seems to be rounding into form and we expect his second straight top 10 this week.
- Kevin Na ( 80/1 DK- $7,400 FD $6,800) Three Kevin’s on the board this week? He’s number 2 on our “Kevin” list for this week. Gaining over a stroke in his approaches last week could signal some strong form on the horizon. In search of his first top 10 since the Genesis Open, it’s been a rather disappointing year so far for the new Dad. Let’s see if he can find the putting stroke this week in Maryland.
- Kevin Tway (80/1 DK-$7,500 FD- $6,700) The third and final Kevin. Tway earned himself a top 10… in the strokes gained approach category last week at the Traveler’s. He made the cut and MDF on the number before a decent Sunday. The thing about Tway is that he racks up DFS points at an alarming rate. On the DK side, when he makes the cut he’s never scored less than 57 points. He is certainly an MC risk but if does make the cut, I expect him to score a lot of points yet again.
- Jason Kokrak (75/1 DK-$7,400 FD- $5,700) 4th last week in SGAPP is a signal that he may have found something. FD and outrights are the better value of the 3, but even for $7,400 on DK, Kokrak is averaging just over 66 DK points per start over his last 4. Seeking his second top 10 of the year, and first since the Byron Nelson 5 weeks ago, Kokrak I’m sure will look to take advantage of the weaker field.
- Wesley Bryan (80/1 DK-$7,000 FD-$6,600) Paired with Spieth in the first two rounds, Wes played inspired golf shooting a pair of 67’s. The weekend didn’t go as well shooting 75/76 so a little bit of Jekyll and Hyde going on. At these values in a weak field, he starts to look interesting but, we need to see where his game is before going all in.
- Hudson Swafford (100/1 DK-$7,300 FD- $5,700) A winner this year, Hudson has struggled a bit of late, and it’s because of his approach shots. He was ranked 70th last week in terms of SGAPP and clearly kept him from the top of leaderboard. He checks in near the bottom of our plays in this price category for that very reason, but in a week field in search of value, he gives it to us in 2/3 spaces (outrights and FD). A bit expensive on DK, Swafford will look to regain the form he had toward the middle part of the year.
Criteria 4- Deep Dive/ Punting section
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
· DK-6999 and below
· FD 5999 and below
· Odds- anything greater than 125/1
- Billy Hurley (125/1 DK-$7,600 FD-$5,700) He makes this list for a couple reasons – he’s had a pretty consistent year but, has missed the last 2 cuts. The main reason is because Billy has shown that he loves to play in-front of his home crowd, and comes in as the defending champ.
- Fabian Gomez (250/1 DK-$7,300 FD- $5,500) An enormous difference between his odds and DK pricing, Gomez comes in on the heels of back to back cuts made. A sharp shooting 66 in round 1 last week at the Traveler’s helped position well inside the cut line, but a tough time avoiding bogey’s on Sunday cost him a good round. Still he amassed 69 DK points coming in a T53 – that’s the type of production we like to see. Expect a similar output this week.
- Jhonattan Vegas (150/1 DK-$6,800 FD- $6,100) A little bit of human element here with this one as the rumblings around the course say he played pretty darn well at the Pro-Am. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this guy round into form just before his title defense up north of the border. He has missed his last 3 cuts, so he doesn’t have that going for him, but the stats would suggest he’s close. He gained 1.2 strokes BS in the only two rounds he played last week, thus showing some signs of form.
- Troy Merritt (125/1 DK- $6,700 FD-$ 5,300) How bout the pop from Troy last week! His first top 10 of the season. He earned it by gaining just about a stroke on average on his approach shots, giving himself plenty of scoring opportunities. There’s no reason for that not to continue this week. Let’s see if Troy can do something he has only done once all year, make 2 cuts in a row!
- C.T Pan (125/1 DK- $7,700 FD- $5,500) One of the biggest price discrepancies between the two sites this week, which presents great value elsewhere. Interestingly enough, Pan hasn’t made back to back cuts once this year, but has two top 10’s. This is your perfect go big or go home case. Because of that, we’d recommend staying away on DK, but getting ownership through outrights and FD!
- Patton Kizzire (250/1 DK-$7,000 FD- $5,400) Written about in this week’s against the grain, Kizzire had a really solid week last week placing 6th in SGAPP. If that type of form continues this week, and scoring expected to be low, you could see him challenge for his first top 25 of the season.
- Grayson Murray (100/1 DK-$6,800 FD- $6,200) He’s made 6 straight cuts, but does have an MDF in there. Love or hate him, he racks up DFS points, and people are starting to take notice. Obviously, his hole-in-one last week helped, but over his last 4 starts he’s averaging over 80 points per game.
- Vaughn Taylor (175/1 DK- $7,000 FD-$5,900) Taylor comes in off a string of 3 made cuts, with one top 20 mixed in. A 57th last week earned him 58.5 DK points with 14 birdies over the 4 days. He ranked right in the middle of the pack coming in 34th in terms of SGAPP. A consistent player in a weak field, and an expected over par cut, I like Taylor to at the very minimum play the weekend and contend for a top 25.
- Cameron Percy (300/1 DK- $6,600 FD- $4,700) A victim of the MDF last week, Percy showed flashes of form gaining just about a stroke in SG-BS. A complete flier on a guy that is pretty consistent around the greens and hitting greens, I expect him to make a cut that is projected to be at least 1 or 2 over.
Other values that fell right in between these lists, but am recommending to play:
Varner/W. Kim/Glover /Hadwin /List/ Hughes/ Spaun
Rookies/ Monday Qualifiers/ Other Notables
Other than Whyndam Clark who gets his second crack at a Tour event, Chris Stroud who replaced Gary Woodland, there’s nothing else to report.
In this section we are going to list guys that are possible withdraws. It may be from being sick, hurt, or anything in between.
Nothing to report this week!
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