The Winning Element
This is where we blend the Tour Level Content with Tour Level Data, mix in human element factors to generate this Week’s top 25 leaderboard. Instead of trying to do the impossible and place every golfer in their respective finishing position, we’ve grouped them into their most likely spots with our final piece of written content each week.
Last Weeks Results:
Dippin Duf Daddy gets the job done last week after a roller coaster ride through 4 rounds and a couple of weather delays. Congrats to Dufner on an impressive home state win. Not even Jack’s place and the chalk slaughter of DJ/Rahm could knock us off the 80% made cut mark for our weekly picks.
Cuts: Keeping with the trend 82% of picks made the cut and went on to the weekend
Top 25’s: BOOM!!! Nearly half of our plays found paydirt with a Top 25 last week, technically it was 47%
Top 10’s: 18% found a spot in the top 10 with 5 guys narrowly missing at 13 or 15. The stalled rally of Spieth and Day kept this number a bit down from the 25% mark it was so close to.
Last week’s Winner Picked- We came through again with another strong week of plays and while not an official pick, we had Dufner in the Heel Bleeder section last week. On Saturday during his implosion had that prediction looking great, then he rallied to squeak out a win. We will file this one the “technically a win” category, but not boasting by any stretch here.
Top 10 (ish) Most Likely to Win- This leader-board is indicative of what we expect the leaderboard to look like come sunday. The golfer listed first is who we think is most likely to win.
Rickie Fowler (7.5/1 DK-$12,000 FD-$10,500) Tricky Rickie is coming off a 2nd that could have/should have been a win, in what seems like a recurring theme for Rickie throughout the years. That said, the other recurring theme throughout his career (Sans The Players win) has seen Rickie come really close a week or two before knocking out a win. That is exactly what he did earlier this year with a 4th at the Waste Management, the a win at The Honda. Rickie is the overall highest ranked golfer in all my models this week both in stats and overall. He also led the field last week in driving accuracy at 80%, Rickie is having a season and this could be a spot for win number 2 this year!
Adam Scott (12/1 DK-$11,000 FD-$10,300) The pure ball striker that no one seems to be talking about this week…except us. Scott cares about the majors and the weeks right before the majors. Is Scott’s goal to win this tournament, maybe, maybe not…but his goal is to have his game as technically sharp as possible for next week. In a field like this and with his elite tee to green game and a putter that is more consistent that past years, Scott could accidently win this tournament and the next one. Not a good reason to look past Scott this week, not to mention he will be the lowest owned of the top tier this week.
Francesco Molinari (16/1 DK-$10,500 FD-$8,700) Molinari is my guy this week for several reasons. First, he is in incredible form. Second, he is not going to put himself in too many compromising positions this week around a course that can make you pay for being out of position. Third, he scores lots of DK points on par 4’s. Moli has several great finishes recently and that gives me confidence that he can outperform his typical top 20 and replace that with a top 5 here this week.
Phil Mickelson (16/1 DK-$10,200 FD-$9,700) Lefty was on Periscope this morning, through the PGA Tour Twitter, talking about this tournament and the golf course. He sounded extremely positive and had some wonderful things to say including his thought on why TPC Southwind is one of the most underrated on tour. He’s had extremely good success here, and hasn’t had a win in four years! This would be the time to breakthrough and get that next W. He hasn’t missed a cut all year 13/13 so really you can roster/play him/ bet him in any format. Last week he gained 2.93 strokes from Tee to green, and segmenting that out, he gained over 2 strokes on his approach shots. Lastly, LET’S FIND A WAY TO GET HIM TO PLAY THE U.S. OPEN ALRIGHT!
Daniel Berger (25/1 DK-$9,300 FD-$9,000) If you listened to the “ Fringe with Benefits Podcast” you heard me (Jason) mention that I’m picking him to defend his title. My thoughts were further developed after talking to his brother yesterday, and Bowdo on the podcast about his preparation and focus this week. Only two top 10’s this year, but 4 times over 80DK points,we know Berger can rack em up, and I expect that to happen this week again!
Charl Schwartzel (33/1 DK-$7,900 FD-$8,100) Well if you read the twitter exchange below, or have seen it before, that shows extreme enthusiasm and confidence. We know Charl is a world class player, and had a freakish injury occur at the Valspar, but as Charl said himself, things seemed to turn around on the weekend @ the Memorial. He must have felt something is very close to clicking to late enter this tournament, and that says to me he thinks he can win.
Brooks Koepka (12/1 DK-$11,500 FD-$10,100) Is Brooks going to win soon? Is it this week? A weaker field, and back to back top 5’s here, it really could be time. He gained over a stroke in his approach shots last week, and over a half a stroke OTT. He’s an extremely underrated putter on tour, ranked 33rd on tour for the year in SGP, and if the flat stick gets hot he will win the tournament. Also, we know when Brooks gets hot he can absolutely crush DK scoring with birdie streaks and bogey free rounds.
Harold Varner III (66/1 DK-$7,400 FD-$6,200) DAB ON EM! A hole on in one rocketing him the leaderboard last week at the memorial, and I know he’s going to carry that swag into this week where he placed 16th last year. Varner, even X the hole in one, was in the top 5 from 150-175 yards proximity to the hole, and #5 on overall proximity to the hole last week which tells me his game is really rounding into form. I expect him on the first page of the leaderboard come sunday.
Ian Poulter (50/1 DK-$7,600 FD-$7,100) The resurgence has been impressive and even more impressive has been his 8th rank on tour this year in strokes gained approach. Say what you want about Poulter and his fancy cars and brash style…the dude is playing some inspired golf again, we would be remiss to look past him this week as he has shown top 10 upside at TPC Southwind as well.
Notables & Value Plays
Chad Campbell(100/1 DK-$7,600 FD-$5,600) He’s 7/7 here and coming of back to back performances. This set’s up perfectly for campbell to get into the T10 this week a 8/1 payout(bovada). Each/way would be a bit of a stretch but I love him vs Grayson Murray for the tournament(5dimes). His FD value is tremendous as his BA is one of the best on tour. We are playing chad this week.
J.B. Holmes (661 DK-$6,800 FD-$9,100) J.B. is simply too cheap for his scoring ability and talent…ie Bubba or Knox last week. This field is not good enough to justify that a prolific point scorer like J.B. even slightly out of what we would consider consistent form be priced this low. J.B. doesn’t need to do much to be a big time point scorer this week and outperform his low price tag and weak field. J.B tends to score well on long par 4’s and is projected to score the 12th most points on par 4’s this week. Is J.B. a bit risky? Sure. Should he make the cut? Yes. Once he makes the cut that is where a projected low owned J.B. will do all his damage for you as he racks up a few extra birdies than the field on the weekend.
Scott Stallings (175/1 DK-$7,400 FD-$5,500) Stallings has a couple of things working for him around TPC Southwind. First is his rather impressive course history for a golfer of his caliber on tour, he really seems to get it around TPC SW quite well. To go along with that, he is turning the corner is his form just in time with back to back made cuts. One of the trends that kind of stuck out was an uptick in putting for guys that do well at TPC SW in the weeks leading up to it, and Stallings is right there in that category as well. Look for Stallings to go well again this week.
Peter Uhlein (55/1 DK-$7,200 FD-$7,000) The heir to a golf ball empire is on the hunt for a PGA Tour card this year, what better way to get one that winning the week before the U.S. Open. Uhlein is very talented golfer that ha shown the ability to compete and specifically for our purposes, score a lot. He does make a few more bogeys than we would like, but he makes plenty of birdies to offset…which leads to more points. Think of Phil but 20 years younger, might not make a lot of pars but the points are there. In a weaker field like this, Uhlein should be just fine after gaining a ton of strokes off the tee last week at the Memorial, we know his driver is dialed in.
Danny Lee (40/1 DK-$7,200 FD-$7,500) Oh Danny Boy! Danny has only played this course once a few years back but his recent form the last few weeks has been amazing. Danny seems to have all areas of his game above his YTD baseline. Danny is a solid and talented all around golfer that certainly has the game to win in a weaker field like this and a bargain to boot at $7,200.
Boo Weekley (150/1 DK-$6,500 FD-$5,500) I am back on the Boo Band Wagon this week, mainly because of his incredible ball striking and a resurgent driver that has him playing at a high level currently. Sure he missed the cut last time out at his favorite event of the year…he also got the bad weather draw and saw some less than ideal conditions that basically took him out of it from the start. I am jumping right back on due to this, also because Boo has incredible course history and this track fits his style of game well.
Tom Hoge (200/1 DK-$6,800 FD-$5,000) The man from Fargo has garnered my interest this week with his past results here being a 34th and 12th in his only 2 appearances. Meanwhile, Hoge has made 2 of his last 3 on the back of a putter that is heating up a bit and tee to green game that seems to be finding a bit more consistency lately. The other reason to give Hoge some love in your lineups this week is his projected scoring this week. We have him projected for the 16th most points without bonuses while he is priced less than 7K and at 5k for FD.
Chez Reavie (150/1 DK-$6,400 FD-$5,700) Chez is practically free for a guy that ranks 74th in strokes gained ball striking on tour and is projected to score the same amount of points without bonuses as guys like Billy Horschel and Charl Schwartzel. Short story is there is a lot of value to be found with Chez this week, not to mention his better than average course history. Making 3 of his 4 cuts here and all 3 inside the top 30 with a top 15 as well. Chez seems to like it here and with his trending form and point scoring projection, he is a great way to round out a lineup this week.
Ken Duke (250/1 DK-$6,400 FD-$5,000) Definitely a CH play here as he has 2 top 10’s in 4 tries. Ken has also made 3 straight cuts, which is great to see, so he is absolutely worth a look at these levels. He hasn’t played in a couple weeks either so he comes to TPC Southwinds rested and ready.
Seamus Power (175/1 DK-$6,400 FD-$5,900) The web.com tour grad hailing from Ireland has had a few flashes this year, but some terrible SGARG has cost him lots of $$$. He has made 3 straight cuts so he’s got that going for him. This will be his first tournament at TPC Southwinds. At basically a min price, he’s worth at least 1 roster spot.
Smylie Kaufmann (80/1 DK-$7,800 FD-$6,400) Well it was great to see this part of SB2k17 start to find form. However a terrible Friday in Ohio and Smylie missed his first cut in 5 appearances. I expect him to regain that form and play well here this week. This will be his first trip to the FedEx St. Jude.
Scott Piercy (50/1 DK-$8,500 FD-$6,900) The value here is through FanDuel. His recent form is faltered a bit last week, but prior, he had a nice run two tournament run placing 20th then 7th. An interesting stat is that he drives the ball very similar to Danny Berger the defending champ, and when you look at the proximity to the hole from key distances from last year (Berger), Piercy is trending there. This sets up to be a pretty sneaky play for DFS players.
Chris Kirk (90/1 DK-$7,700 FD-$6,700) We know Kirk has ties to this area but his recent flair up with a tight back has use concerned still and his lack of course history doesn’t instill confidence either. Best to wait this on it out on Kirk until we see something.
A new section this week, as these are golfers that probably won’t hurt you, but won’t help you either. Just like hitting your driver of the heel, and having it bleed left or right a bit, we expect these golfers to all make the cut, but not per say contend this weekend. They may be able to still help a DK lineup, but certainly wouldn’t be planning on them winning the golf tournament.
- Graham McDowell
- Russell Knox
- Camillo Villegas
- Kevin Chapell
In honor of Rafa-Cabrera Bello’s amazing Albatross at the Players, the first time it had been done on 16 @ TPC Sawgrass, we bring you a few total long shots, that could find form this week. This will be guys that we were able to see over the past few days on site that seemed to be working and or practicing in the right way. Still they will need a few “RCB” like bounces to win.
- Harris English
- Ben Crane
- Roberto Castro
- Joel Dahman
- Jim Furyk
The Power Fade Report:
Each week, it seems that a singular player, and often a highly-owned one sinks a perfect lineup, so our bad chalk report is here to help. We are going to bring you some additional value by helping to identify a player that projects to be highly owned but has the potential to let those that roster him down with a possible MC or a lackluster performance for one reason or another.
J.T. Poston (100/1 DK-$6,300 FD-$6,700) J.T. seems to be getting some hype this week around the industry with his emerging talent being on display as of late and his scoring potential. My concerns though this week are about his recent birth into the U.S. Open, he could be looking past TPC Southwind a bit. The other reason is his propensity of making a big number. While he scores well part of that is out of necessity from a bad hole or two. If that happens this week we could see J.T. on his way to Erin Hills a tad early with so much water scattered around.
Stewart Cink (66/1 DK-$8,000 FD-$7,100) Last week I was all over Cink for the consistency that he brings to a roster. While that line of reasoning hasn’t changed, what has is his price. At $8,000 Cink is just too expensive for the scoring upside he brings. While I don’t expect him to miss the cut, I also don’t expect a high finish or big DK scoring from Mr. Cink to pay off his price this week.
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