This is where we blend the tour level content with tour level data, mix in human element factors to generate this Week’s top 25 leaderboard. Instead of trying to do the impossible and place every golfer in their respective finishing position, we’ve grouped them into their most likely spots with our final piece of written content each week.
Last Weeks Results
Kisner comes through big time and gets his win and helps elevate the Tour Level team to another really solid week, as we picked the winner and then some. I got shots of several subs winning some big dollars last week, very exciting to see and expect to see plenty more as we move forward!
Cuts: Of the 29 plays (Leaderboard & Fliers) we only had 5 MC for another week above the 80% (82.7%) mark in made cuts. Not counted but we also fared well in the injury/fade categories this week too, hitting 4 out of 6 in the Heel Bleeders section and the injury report. We were ½ on the fades with Webb showing better than expected last week, but nailed James Hahn with the MC,
Top 25’s: We went 10 of 29 (34.5%)
Top 10’s: 7 of 29 this week for a 24% Top 10 rate.
Last week’s Winner Picked- Yea BABY!!! Kisner comes through with a big win and some redemption from New Orleans.
Top 10 (ish) Most Likely to Win- This leader-board is indicative of what we expect the leaderboard to look like come Sunday. The golfer listed first is who we think is most likely to win.
Dustin Johnson (5.5/1 DK-$12,000 FD-$11,800) He’s the best golfer in the world, and he has good course history… Is there much more that needs to be said? Obviously it’s tough to win a ton of money betting on him with 5.5/1, the nice thing this week on DK is that there are a plethora of guys in the 6000’s that great plays, thus making it easier to roster. Look for odds to get 10/1 or better before jumping on on that. He would be a nice parlay paired of top 10’s from others.
Jon Rahm (12/1 DK-$11,100 FD-10,800) No matter when people think he’s not going to have a good week, he just keeps proving people wrong. Can not bet against him right now. He loves hitting a high cut and this course really favors it, oh and he’s Jon Rahm. He will be high owned, and rightly so.
Jason Day (12.5/1 DK-$10,300 FD-$10,300) A mere 5 foot putt is all that kept Day from hoisting a trophy in Texas. Day is now coming home to a place that he is a member and has only performed kind of well at in the past, while that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence on it’s face…it is almost exactly the same way he rolled into The Players last year. Right before he thrashed it for a big win! This feels the same way, his putting has turned around and more importantly his strokes gained approach were positive over his YTD avg in Texas for the first time all year. I want to be on the front side of a world class player finding form, and it’s a home game to boot. I’m not sure exactly how much a win here this week would me for Day in his adopted home after all his off the course issues this year, but I know how crushing his loss at Firestone to DJ on the last hole last year was…I betting on some redemption this week.
Patrick Cantlay (50/1 DK-$7.800 FD- $6,600) If you read against the grain, or listened to the #fringewithbenefits, you know he’s @dfsgolfer23 pick to win. He’s an elite golfer, that needs just a bit of work on his scrambling, and that will be the only thing holding him back from winning the tournament this week. He’s leading the tour in par 3 efficiency from 175-200 yards, and all 4 par3’s on the course are from that distance. Match that with his ridiculous FD price, and he could warrant in all in there, but taper it down a bit on DK cause he’s reasonably priced at 7800. On the betting side, i like to look at H2h’s with him, but 50/1 probably isn’t the best value you’ll get for him.
Jordan Spieth (11/1 DK-$11,000 FD-$10,000) Spieth is a birdie machine and it shows in the stats, ranking 1st in birdie or better rate from the fairway and he converts more birdies per green in regulation than anyone else in the field…DK points baby. While Spieth may not have the course history you want to see when spending 11K, he makes up for his lackluster finishes with above average points. Spieth also needs room off the tee and he should get plenty this week at Muirfield. Since he should hit plenty of fairways, we can expect that his best in field strokes gained approach to play a big factor in some additional birdies this week. If you are looking for the most Spieth bang for your buck, fire him up at a $1,000 discount on FanDuel.
Brendan Steele (80/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$7,300) Steele, written about in the “Against the Grain”, is in great form, and a tremendous value on both sites. Coming off a top 10 at the Players, Steele comes back to Dublin, where he has found success making 4/6 cuts. His 2oth last year was his best finish, but also scored over 60 DK points in 3 other starts. At 6,700 a 10x return won’t be to hard to obtain if he makes the cut.
Rickie Fowler (25/1 DK-$9,800 FD-$9,300) #Rickiefoundachick is a real thing folks, the (in)famous Ryder Cup photo with kissless Rickie during the celebratory photo went viral last year. This week it is all about his new pole vaulter girlfriend and his girlfriend swag. Actually it is all about the elite consistency that Rickie has showed this year from tee 2 green, grinding for par and keeping himself in tournaments. Rickie is ranked number 1 in my overall power ranks this week and for that reason I expect Rickie to perform much closer to his inaugural performance here (2nd) then the previous 3 years would suggest.
Adam Scott (25/1 DK-9,800 FD-$9,700) The last time we saw Adam he was working his way around TPC Sawgrass for a 6th place. There is nothing to suggest that his game is any different this week. Elite ball striking with a shaky putter has proven to be a winning combination in the past at Jack’s place, in fact Scott was 4th here last time he played (2014). Scott can hit the small spots required to hold greens and score this week and his putter was actually 0.8 strokes better 3 weeks ago than his YTD average, a good sign for Scott this week.
Matt Kuchar (30/1 DK-$9,400 FD- $9,500) KUCH is the course history KING this week around Muirfield. Since 2009 Kuch has gained 2.61 strokes on the field here, so we know he loves the course and his game is trending in the right direction in almost all categories the past few weeks. Course history…check Good form…check What did I miss? Don’t get cute, Kuch is the stable player you want in cash this week.
Byeong Hun An (60/1 DK-$6,900 FD-$7,500) The only negative thing people can say about Hun-An right now is his travel schedule. England to Ohio is basically nothing. 6 Hours tops, in a nice comfy First class seat with his drink of choice. He’s fine. His 11th place finish here last year mixed with his perfect 12/12 record this year, we love Benny to crack the top 10 again. Another top 10 should slide him into the top 50 in the world. so thats a nice human element narrative for him as well.
Patrick Reed (40/1 DK-$9,200 FD-$8,800) Well Reed seemed to be really rounding into form prior to the AT&T Byron, where he really doesn’t’ fit all that well and still managed a T20. On this course, one that does favor a cut, has 3 holes where you are required to hit a draw. If you haven’t read the “Edge’s Yardage Book” the holes are highlighted there. His scrambling ability is what we will keep him in this tournament, and wider fairways should give him plenty of iron shots from there which he has been excelling at.
Emiliano Grillo (80/1 DK-$8,500 FD-$7,700) Grilled Cheese (Grillo) is running pretty hot as of late and really flashed some impressive game on Saturday with a 65 at Colonial before fading a bit Sunday. His near top 10 last year should be a good target for Grillo once again this week. We can’t quite see him closing out a win here but in contention and a top 10 are right in his wheelhouse this week.
Notables & Value Plays
Marc Leishman (66/1 DK-$6,900 FD-$7,300) The pricing gods have been kind on DK with a sub-7K Leishman in his current form. Red hot from the tee and on approach lately, look for leishman to give himself plenty of birdie opportunities this week on a difficult course. He should hit more greens than most and it hard to ignore his strong 6 straight made cuts here with his last two showings going for a 11th and a 5th. Leish has the game to win here and we know he can do it after an impressive victory at the API.
Steve Stricker (100/1 DK-$6,900 FD-$7,600) Wiley old Strick surged on sunday with a beautifully played 63. It may have motivated him to even try and quliafy for the US Open as he was a late entry into the field. With that narrative, his consistent play on both Sr. and regular PGA tours, matched with his very low DK price and good odds is a great combination for a high finish. Oh he also won here in 2011.
Tony Finau (50/1 DK-$7,900 FD-$8,600) If Kuch is the King of Course History this week…that would have to make Finau the Prince. In his only two years playing this tournament, he has gained 2.23 strokes on the field in his 8th and 11th place finishes. Back to back top 10’s in his only 2 appearances at a top tier course with top tier talent and is a noticeably better player this year versus last…the stars seem to be lining up for Tony this week.
Ryan Moore (100/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$8,000) I was confused about Ryan Moore’s ownership the past two weeks because I really didn’t think that the courses were good fits for him and he hadn’t played them too well in the past, not the case this week. Moore has incredible course history for someone priced at $6,700. A great value for 7 straight made cuts herem with 5 of them being top 25’s. This is really only a Draftkings play, his price on FanDuel is much closer to what it should be but I’ll take the DK value.
Keegan Bradley (80/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$7,000) Keegs!!! Coming off a great round 2 at the AT&T to make the cut, he continued that strong play over the weekend and has now 3 straight rounds in the 60’s. He also has back to back 8th place finishes here, and is great value across the board. Look for a third consecutive Top 15 here this week @ the Memorial.
Sean O’ Hair (85/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$6,800) The guy with a swing so good that even Justin Rose wanted to copy it, is making a triumphant return to the tops of leaderboards lately. O’Hair an incredibly talented players that strikes the ball very well has not enjoyed much success at Muirfield in the past, to be fair he hasn;t much success in general for the last 3-5 years but we know he has the game to compete on almost any course. We are look for Sean to keep his good form and turn his MC streak here around.
Phil Mickelson (60/1 DK-$7,700 FD-$9,200) We know he loves playing before majors to tune up his game. He’s 11/11 for cuts this year, and across those 12 starts he averages 75 DK points per game. I talk a lot about a 10X return, and 75 points gets him just shy of that for DK. He is a little expensive on Fan Duel, so i’d say use up your exposure on DK and straight bets.
Kyle Stanley (80/1 DK-$7,400 FD-$6,100) Stanley was the uber chalk last week at a whopping 70% ownership in the Thunderdome…and he crushed everyone! Most will stay away this week but truth be told, I think he is a better play this week than last. Despite his MC, Stanley still ranked 5th in SG Approach…crazy right. He basically loses all those strokes on the green. With these fast greens and undulation, being closer to the hole is more important than being a good putter. I am going to roll some Stanely for the bounce back and decent performance this week and hope for some positive variance in the putting department but in understand if you got burned last week and it is just too soon to go back.
Pat Perez ( 90/1 DK-$6,800 FD- $7,300) Coming off a MC, Perez will be well rested and looking to regain that form. He also had the bad weather draw, and really looked dejected during much of the second round. I lke a bounce back for perez this week @ Muirfield where he’s hasn’t missed a cut in last 6 tries.
Kevin Streelman (175/1 DK-$7,700 FD-$5,600) A really great value on the betting board and on FanDuel. A little expensive for DK as he he’s only scored over 75 points once this year and it was all the way back at the At&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. So for that, no exposure on DK, but with nice course history and trending form, we like the value on FD and straight bets.
Justin Thomas (35/1 DK-$7,600 FD-$9,000) Here again is a specific format play. 7600 on DK is way to cheap for him. He has the potential of 100+ and has done that 3 times this year. Not great CH here, thats why he isn’t in our top 10 most likely, but the value on DK is way to hard to ignore.
David Lingmerth (100/1 DK-$7,400 FD-$6,100) A past champion here coming off a great finish last week, thats all i need to see to know its time to play Lingmerth. It doesn’t hurt that his ownership will remain low because of the plethora of talent in the 6.9k-6.5k range, which makes him a great gpp play. FD and straight bets are also great value. Look for the strong form to continue here.
Russell Knox (225/1 DK-$6,300 FD-$6,900) If you listened to #fringewithbenefits podcast yet, bowdo mentioned that Russel Knox OWGR 35 is priced $100 less than himself. He’s get a new caddy and sometimes even a change like that can spark something for the golfer. Keep an eye on Russel especially if DK is going to price him here.
Stewart Cink (185/1 DK-$7,000 FD-$6,600) This may be the best GPP play of the week, on DK at least. He’s getting absolutely lost in the shuffle of leishman/hun-an/RCB/Moore and is coming off a T10. He hasn’t missed a cut here in his last 7 tries and has and 6/7 starts came with finishes inside the top 30.
Peter Uihlein (140/1 DK-$6,800 FD-$6,600) Mr./ Jr.Titleist comes to play the Memorial on a sponsors exemption. He doesn’t have many starts here in the states, but if you look at the breadth of his work, he racks up DK points in a hurry. He averages just under 80 points per start and boost a 12/13 made cuts record this year. A great value, if he makes the cut.
Kevin Tway (85/1 DK-$6,500 FD-$6,800) The younger Tway is on a serious RUN of FORM and it would simply be foolish to look past him this week. Tee 2 Green Tway is outperforming his YTD average by nearly a half stroke and scoring plenty of DK points in the process. A strong of 4 top 20’s is nothing to scouf at, even coming into a tough course like Muirfield. Look for Tway to make another, cut and dare I say another top 20? Maybe a top 25…
Charley Hoffman (90/1 DK-$6,500 FD-$7,500) Charley is a lot like Peter, and that he racks up DK points in a hurry. He also boost a 5/6 record here in his last 6 tries. The 5 times he’s made the cut, he’s racked up 84 56 72 61 60 DK points. I like Charley to get you pretty close to 10x again on DK this week, and is a pretty safe bet to make the cut for your FD 8/8 search. Lastly, at 90/1, we know he’s won before, so at that value, Hefferman should not be ignored.
Si Woo Kim (125/1 DK-$6,400 FD-$6,600) After his Player’s victory a presumably still hampered Kim MC at Colonial. While we don’t have any new specific news regarding his back at this point we have to assume that is a bothersome injury that can flare up at anytime. Until we get any further info regarding his injury, proceed with caution. We know the talent is there, just not sure if he is 100%
Chris Kirk (225/1 DK-$7,100 FD-$6,500) His WD from the pro am last week didn’t seem to bother him a ton during the 1st 2 rounds as he found himself right in the mic but faded a good ways on the weekend. One has to wonder how much his back factored into that. Likely just tightness, but Vegas also doesn’t trust Kirk in his price range either. Play with caution.
A new section this week, as these are golfers that probably won’t hurt you, but won’t help you either. Just like hitting your driver of the heel, and having it bleed left or right a bit, we expect these golfers to all make the cut, but not per say contend this weekend. They may be able to still help a DK lineup, but certainly wouldn’t be planning on them winning the golf tournament.
- Gary Woodland
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Kevin Kisner
- Jason Dufner
- Charl Schwartzel
- Bill Haas
In honor of Rafa-Cabrera Bello’s amazing Albatross at the Players, the first time it had been done on 16 @ TPC Sawgrass, we bring you a few total long shots, that could find form this week. This will be guys that we were able to see over the past few days on site that seemed to be working and or practicing in the right way. Still they will need a few “RCB” like bounces to win.
- Jamie Lovemark
- Harold Varner III
- Michael Kim
- Jim Furyk
- David Hearn
The Power Fade Report:
Each week, it seems that a singular player, and often a highly-owned one sinks a perfect lineup, so our bad chalk report is here to help. We are going to bring you some additional value by helping to identify a player that projects to be highly owned but has the potential to let those that roster him down with a possible MC or a lackluster performance for one reason or another.
William McGirt (100/1 DK-$8,600 FD-$6,900) While McGirt has played reasonably well lately, it seems that he might have peaked a few weeks early to defend his title at Memorial this week. He tapered off a bit since his great performance at The Masters and Players. Nothing too crazy here but we are fading based on the past champion narrative. McGirt should make the cut and all but if you “need” to play McGirt this week, do it on FanDuel where he is priced much more appropriately.
Make sure to follow the team on Twitter! @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @hump_bumgarnder @Tourlvlfantasy