At Tour Level, our one and only goal is to help you make the best informed decisions you can make, and hopefully along the way, help you to earn a little profit. All of our content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way you possibly can. The Winning Element goes up and down the odds and salary list, and gives our favorite plays from each price to odds ratio.
Last Week’s Results
Wow, another great week for all of us here at @tourlvlfantasy. We nailed 17 of 22 picks, good for 77% percent and we got the winner AGAIN, and a few other great finishes.
The Winning Element
The Open Championship Player Focus:
*Note this article highlights our favorite plays in each tier. If the player is not listed, that does not mean we are recommending fading them, we just simply don’t see them as our play in the respective price category. Players are listed numerical from our favorite play to just some of our favorites.
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
· DraftKings: 12,000-8,999 — 12 Possibilities
· Fan Duel: 11,000-7,999 — 15 Possibilities
· Odds: Better than 40/1 — 14 Possibilities
1. Jordan Spieth (11/1, DK -$11,600 FD- $10,100): Referred to as the golden boy, and his fanboy club is led by none other than our own @dfsgolfer23, Spieth comes in on fire: A win at the Travelers in his last outing with an incredible hole out on the 73rd hole propelled him back to third in the OWGR. His pursuit of regaining No.1 status would certainly be aided by a win here this week at Royal Birkdale. Spieth has made all four cuts at the British, but with only one top-10 with a sixth-place finish. Look for Spieth to assert himself on Friday and win this by four come Sunday afternoon…(unless he hits it OB right on 18 on Sunday then he’ll only win by one).
2. Rickie Fowler (15/1, DK-$9,200 FD-$9,600): Currently trending to be the highest owned golfer on DK, Rickie comes in with a ton of confidence. A rather lackluster Friday and Saturday at the Scottish prevented him from winning that tournament for the second time in his career (although it goes back to Gullane next year where he won in 2015… I played the course and its truly incredible). Anyways I digress about my Scotland trip, so allow me to get back to telling you that Rickie has never been in better form than he is right now. He will win a major before he turns 30 and that leaves him only about six left… Is he the one that gets into a playoff because of Spieth’s triple on the 72nd hole? I hope so.
3. Hideki Matsuyama (20/1, DK-$9,500 FD-$9,000): Do people forget that this guy carded a runner up finish at the U.S Open? Some in the industry think he will never win a major. I wholeheartedly disagree with that. He’s got all the tools to become Japan’s first major winner…ever. He also NEVER gets love in these full field events averaging less than 10% ownership typically. Couple ownership with a good record at Open’s with a three of four cuts record and one top 10, and look for Matsuyama to give Spieth a run over the weekend.
4. Dustin Johnson (10/1 DK-$12,00 FD-$10,400): Listen, I know he’s had two straight missed cuts… but he’s still the No. 1 player in the world. We’ve moved him down a bit because of those missed cuts but he’s still DJ. He’s made the last seven cuts at the Open with three top 10s.
5. Sergio Garcia(16/1 DK-$10,600 FD-$9,400): Can you really take Sergio out of your player pool? I mean c’mon… He has three straight top 10s at the Open, he won the Master’s this year, seems to be in the best mental mindset of his entire career, and has finally broken through. Look for him to make it four straight top 10s this week.
6. Jon Rahm (14/1 DK$11,400 FD-$10,000): Coming off an extremely impressive Sunday at the Irish Open, Rahm showed he can play on any type of course. Does he have the mental fortitude for a major though? That is still TBD, and why he’s not higher on the list.
7. Justin Rose (19/1 DK-$10,300 FD-$9,000): Well it was a long time ago that this tournament and this course propelled “JustahRose” into the limelight. A little pricey for Rose, but he’ll still get the normal amount of love he get’s at majors… Which is around 20% ownership.
*Personally, I (@dfsgolfer23) am not fading Stenson, Day, Mcilroy, or Fleetwood but we can’t list everyone can we? I will have them lower owned then all the guys listed above.
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
- DK: 8999-8,000 — 8 possibilities
- FD:7999-7000 — 14 possibilities
- Odds: 40/1 -75/1 — 16 possibilities
1. Phil Mickelson (42/1 DK-$8,700 FD-$7,600): Probably going to the highest guy owned on FanDuel this week, and for good reason. His price is absolutely right for Phil. Three top-twos, yup, not top-fives or 10s, but twos, for Phil in his last six Open starts. He obviously loves links style courses and also IS TAKING THE DRIVER OUT OF THE BAG. That could end up being incredibly helpful for Phil to stay in the picture throughout the whole week. Look for Phil to contend for yet another major.
2. Justin Thomas (55/1 DK-$8,200 FD-$8,300): JT and his tie wearing Thursday outfit is not getting much love from the odd’s maker this week. Seems like DK didn’t give him much love either as he’s more expensive on FD. I’m taking both positive variances (odds and DK) and buying into JT. A dreadful Sunday at the US Open prevented him from winning his first major but a bounce back here would do him wonders. He’ll get plenty of media attention with his outfit, and if he comes out and fires, he’ll get even more. Is that bad or good for his game? Not sure… but we’ll find out!
3. Paul Casey (34/1 DK-$8,100 FD-$7,800): Casey doesn’t have any good recent success at the Open championships, but he’s also not been in great form the last couple of years with two MCs mixed in with a 74th and 47th. He did have a 3rd in 2010 so obviously he can play well here. Look for him to chase another top 10 at a major with a reasonable price tag.
4. Branden Grace( 48/1 DK-$8,000 FD-$7,500): A wonderful Sunday at Dundonald has me excited for his prospects this week. He’s never missed a cut when playing the open, but at the same token, he’s never had a finish better than 20th. That will change this year for this smooth swinging South African.
5. Thomas Pieters (50/1 DK-$8,400 FD-$7,400): Well the Belgian bomber totally let me down at the U.S Open with a pretty dreadful Thursday. Similar to Jon Rahm, we just don’t know if he has the mental fortitude at majors yet. He certainly has the talent but you need both to win majors. He is a bit expensive on DK, with JT being a couple hundred dollars less, but I’d take a long hard look at FD and odds IF, and it’s a big IF, he starts of well on Thursday.
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
- DK: 7999-7000 — 22 possibilities
- FD: 6999-6000 — 21 possibilities
- Odds: 75/1- 125/1 — 16 possibilities
1. Marc Leishman (48/1 DK-$7,800 FD-$6,700): So close a few years back, Leishman is in pursuit of his first major victory. The Aussie is having a great year this year, possibly his best ever, with a win and multiple other big finishes. He’ll be looking to add his third top-five in four starts at Royal Birkdale this week.
2. Ian Poulter (65/1 DK-$7,500 FD-$6,200): Poulter finished second at Royal Birkdale when The Open was last held here in 2008. He’s missed the cut in his last two attempts (2015 at St. Andrews and 2014 at Royal Liverpool), but prior to that he had a top-10, and a top-five finish in 2012 and 2013. Plus, Poulter’s game is just about as good as it’s ever been, with seven straight made cuts, including a T9 at the Scottish Oopen last week.
3. Daniel Berger (80/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$7,100): We love the Berger here @TourLevel. An incredible year for this 24 year old with multiple top-fivess and a win, he is the best value on DK this week, and odds. He’s quickly asserting himself into the ranks of the upper echelon of young studs. He’s missed his only cut at the Open, but that doesn’t concern me at all. With Snedeker’s WD, we expect many to pivot to Berger, and likely increase his ownership in GPPs.
4. Rafael Cabrera Bello (66/1 DK-$6,600 FD-$7,100): A gutsy Sunday and a hell of a shot in the playoff propelled RCB to the win last week @ the Scottish Open. After playing the course Monday and talking to the caddies, I was informed he collected is 1.2m and did not go out and party with the girls, but went straight to Liverpool>Birkdale to start preparing. That’s a very encouraging sign and presents incredible value at 6600.
Deep Dive — Punting Section
Criteria qualifications: Must meet 2/3
- DK: 6999 and below
- FD: 5999 and below
- Odds: anything greater than 125/1
1. Brian Harman (125/1 DK – $6,600 FD-$6,100): Mentioned in the Against The Grain series, Harman is one of the top 10 best putters on tour this season. The Open always proves to be a tournament where the putter is used much more frequently than the rest due to the style of the courses over in Europe, and that should only bode well for Brian. He came up just short at the U.S Open, but Harman has tremendous upside for these prices.
2. Bennie An (125/1 DK – $6,700 FD-$6,000): This guy popped in almost every single key yardage this week. (See the new article “walking the course” to see where) I am bit worried about his performance @ the Scottish where he looked lackluster all week, and multiplied on Sunday for the 8 holes I followed him. Be weary of that, as I think it will limit his upside, but I do expect him around for the weekend.
3. Russell Henley (125/1 DK – ($7,000 FD $5,700): Henley is typically a streaky player, and he’s in the midst of three straight cuts made with an excellent fifth-place finish his last time out at the Greenbrier. He’s played The Open four times, with two missed cuts, and a T20 at St. Andrews in 2015 as his best finish.
4. Bryson Dechambeau (135/1 DK -$6,700 FD-$5,400): @scottimac11 and Tour Level has been on Bryson now for the better part of the last month. He finally broke through and lived up to all the hype surrounding him with the win at the John Deere classic…Funny that’s that’s the same place Spieth started his magical run just a few years back. Upside is incredible here and to good to pass up, whether you like him or not.
5. Andrew “Beef” Johnston (140/1 DK – $7,000 FD- $5,400): BEEEEEF! What an up and down week last week for Beef filled with ton’s of birdies, eagles, hole-outs and ton’s of bogey’s. He came down the 9th hole at -6 last week at Dundonald and should have holed out his shot, but his ball stroked his fellow competitors and deterred it away from the hole…That got him to -7 and a shot at a really good finish… However a two-over back nine backed him all the way to a T19… Still encouraging to see his iron play be so on which should really help him this week at Royal Birkdale.
6. Tony Finau (125/1 DK – $6800 FD $6900): Finau is on fire with six straight cuts made and a seventh-place finish at the Greenbrier. He has eight top-30 finishes in his last 11 tournaments. He’s also one for one at The Open: He finished T18 at Royal Troon last year.
7. Ryan Fox (175/1 DK – $6,600 FD $5,200): By far the most trending golfer of the week in this price range, Fox is riding hot. A hole in “3” ( he lost a ball left on his first shot and proceeded to jar his provisional, which btw I’m still looking for because it cost me first place @ the live final) at the Scottish Open last week helped maintain his score and earned himself a top 5. He’s made four straight cuts and has three straight top 10’s with two coming at link style courses. The upside here is undeniable, the ownership projection is scary though… @ 6600 and 5200, the ownership levels may not matter that much.
8. Soren Kjeldsen (125/1 DK – $6,900 FD $5,800): Don’t sleep on old-man Kjeldsen. The 42-year old has played in eight Opens with four made cuts, including a T9 at Royal Troon last year. Importantly, he’s coing off a T9 finish at last week’s Scottish Open in which he shot a 68 on Sunday. He finished 62nd at the Irish Open the week prior, so this will be the third straight week Soren has hit the links.
9. Anriban Lahiri (195/1 – DK-$6,600 FD-$5,300): Truthfully I’m not sure how Lahiri got into this tournament… It must be OWGR cause he was one of the last ones to get into the field. [Editor’s note: Last month he was joint runner-up behind Jason Dufner at the Memorial Tournament and that boost to his world ranking led to him being called into The Open when Scott Piercy withdrew.] He makes this list because of his Sunday @ the Scottish… Something seemed to click and maybe he can put it together all 4 rounds like we’ve seen in the past at majors? This will be his fourth appearance at the Open, where he has a three of four record with no finishes inside the top 25.
10. Matthieu Pavon (330/1 DK-$6,200 FD- $4,800): Euro Tours equivalent of Wes Bryan…He’s either hit…or miss. Three of six in his last six starts on that tour, but two inside the top-six. Pavon is coming off a very strong Scottish, and warrants a few roster spots… But don’t go crazy with it, because he has that missed cut potential.
11. Andrew Dodt- (275/1 DK-$6,300 FD-$5,000): Dodt comes in off back-to-back good performances at the Scottish and Irish, and probably should have won the Scottish… He at least was in position to before falling back in the middle of his round on Sunday. Still, for his low price, coming off two good performances on similar style of golf course, I’m buying.
12. David Horsey (300/1 DK-$6,400 FD-$5,000): I caught Horsey for a few holes this week and his mum was following him. Not that that matters, but, his game seems to be rounding into some good form. He’s made five straight cuts with a second place finish just a few weeks back. At these levels, with a guy that just had a hole in one, why not?
Other Players we like but just missed the list: Jamie Lovemark Collum Shinkwin Pat Perez Kyle Stanley Charles Howell III
Brandt Snedeker announced his withdrawal on Twitter early Wedensday and James Hahn, who made the trip over as the first alternate, is in the field.