The Winning Element
This is where we blend the tour level content with tour level data, mix in human element factors to generate this Week’s top 25 leaderboard. Instead of trying to do the impossible and place every golfer in their respective finishing position, we’ve grouped them into their most likely spots with our final piece of written content each week.
Last Weeks Results: Brown and Kisner were part of our ticket last week. Hopefully that paid some dividends.
Top 10’s: 8
Last week’s Winner Picked- No (lost in a playoff)
Wells Fargo Championship Leader board
1-5 Most Likely to Win
Adam Scott (16/1 DK-$10,000 FD-$9,900) Coming off a top 10 at the Masters and taking a few weeks off, Scott’s game looks ready to take form. The course correlations that Eagle Point has to Augusta gives us all the more reason to like Scott. Oh also, he has the better weather draw.
Dustin Johnson (4.4/1 DK-$13,000 FD- $11,500) Making his 1st start since “The Fall Heard ‘round Augusta” DJ says he is feeling good and we expect his performance to reflect that. Needing length coupled with strong wedges around Eagle Point, DJ fits the bill nicely and should be squarely in the mix come Sunday and a slightly under owned DK play as well.
Paul Casey (18/1 DK- $9,900 FD- $9,400) The only thing going against Paul this week is his Tee Time draw. If play on Friday is pushed back to mid-day, say around noon, then I can’t imagine him not being on the first page of the leader board come Sunday afternoon. 3 straight top 10’s at Augusta, and his impeccable ball striking skills say that no matter his weather draw he’s going to be there on Sunday.
J.B. Holmes (50/1 DK-$8,000 FD- $8,400) JB has been the error of consistency this year making ⅞ cuts and averages 71 DK points in those 8 starts. A great past at Augusta, a great showing with teammate Bubba Watson last week, has me thinking it’s time for the first top 5 of the season (at an individual event)
Jon Rahm (9/1 DK-$11,000 FD- $10,500) RahmGOAT, an absolute machine. 4 top 10’s in 7 tries, and has made all 7 cuts. Beyond his incredible form, he’s making a birdie or better on 25% of his holes, translating into an immense of DK points. He does have the lesser of the two tee time draws (pm,am) but paired with Casey and Bryan, they should all be able to keep each other in the game.
6-10 Outside Chances
Shane Lowry (90/1 DK-$6,900 FD-$7,600) The elements are ripe for Lowry, and yet again priced so incredibly low by both DK and the odds makers. Ranked 69th in the world, Lowry seemed to find some form at the RBC making 18 birdies over the week, and amassing 75.5 DK points. The nasty weather this week shouldn’t give cause for concern as far as Lowry goes, he is quite used to and well adapted to poor weather play.
Pat Perez (75/1 DK-$8,900 FD- $7,200) When his shoulder isn’t bothering him, this guy can compete with anyone this year. He does have some very questionable rounds under his belt, like his 80 a couple weeks ago, but when his head his in the game, he’s got a shot to win. Which PP will show up this week, we think the one that has a chance to win. Traditionally, Perez has played very well on coastal courses and in windy conditions throughout his career.
Phil Mickelson (25/1 DK-$10,200 FD- $9,800) If there’s anyone that likes tough conditions, its Phil Mickelson. Time and Time again he shows that he can compete no matter the elements. We know he loves Augusta, and holds one of the best records at Quail Hollow (another comp course). He does have the bad tee time draw, but as mentioned before, there is no better golfer in the elements than Phil Mickelson.
Francesco Molinari (50/1 DK- $9,200 FD $8,300) Francesco goes overlooked almost every tournament. Maybe it’s because he doesn’t really have a flashy game, and he doesn’t, but he’s an incredible good ball striker. This week ball striking will be at an absolute premium with the conditions and course set up, so I expect Molinari to hang around and make a run on the weekend.
Patton Kizzire (100/1 DK- $7,800 FD- $5,500) The other Kiz, Patton Kizzire should be looking to Eagle Point as an opportunity to get back in the mix on a Sunday leaderboard after his collapse down the stretch in his first taste of PGA pressure golf earlier this season. That said, Patton’s inaccuracy off the tee shouldn’t hurt him this week and the last time we saw P Kiz, he led the RBC Heritage in SG Approach over his YTD baseline…translation he is in good form! With his above average around the green skills and putter, look for Kizzire to show up this week.
11-25 Long Shots
Kevin Kisner (22/1 DK-$8,400 FD- $9,000) Coming up just short last week at the Zurich, don’t expect Kisner to stay down long. His approach game is really dialed in right now and he seemingly can’t miss from around the greens. A skill he will need to put to good use again this week and one that will keep him squarely in contention this week.
Harold Varner III (140/1 DK-$6,300 FD- $6,000) HV3 makes the list again this week with his strength off the tee and his propensity to hit a draw (fits this course well) he should continue performing well as his current SG APP at Valero were 1.3 strokes better than his baseline and that is an improvement of 1.8 strokes from his performance at the RBC. This stat is significant in translation to his game as he ranked inside the top 10 from 50-125 proximity to the hole for RBC and Valero. HV3 is a good wind player that is rounding into form and his irons are crisp, if he can get it up and down a few times and make a putt or two fall this week…Mr. Varner III should do very well indeed.
Beyong Hun-An (80/1 DK- $8,200 FD)- Length of the tee coupled with his increasing SG: APP category make us very interested in this golfer who is on a string 4 straight made cuts. If he can putt well as he did at the WMO he can be there come Sunday afternoon. He also posted a 33rd and a strong showing this year at a difficult Augusta.
Grayson Murray (206/1 DK-$6,000 FD- $4,800) The hometown kid, or at least close by, has made a name for himself in the Twitterverse. Sometimes for the very wrong reasons, and sometimes for the very right. Regardless of any of that nonsense, he comes home in good form. He’s made 3 straight cuts including a T11 in the team even last week with Cam Percy. Tough to put a lot of weight in that, but great odds DK and FD value for Murray this week. The report from the course is that he’s in an extremely good mood and is striping the ball well on-course and on the range.
Jason Kokrak (200/1 DK-$6,700 FD-$5,400) The big hitting Kokrak should feel right at home at Eagle Point with an average driving distance of 304. Kokrak is really driving the ball well right now and that will give him a big advantage around this track. Allowing him to access some of the tougher pins this week and keep pace with the likes of DJ. Our on-site correspondent says that he has some fantastic practice sessions and overall is an extremely positive mood heading into the week. He’ll look to add his
Kevin Streelman (125/1 DK-$6,600 FD-$5,800) Kevin’s game favors hitting the ball right to left, a natural draw, and that’s how this course really set’s up. If you haven’t been able to catch the “edge’s yardage book” @dfsjimme breaks down how a golfer like Streelman, can really excel on a course like this.
Troy Merritt (200/1 DK- $6,500 FD- $5,100) Troy makes the list wit his 49th at the Valero was quickly followed up with a top 25 in the team event. Troy is a very strong wedge player that can score well when his game is on, currently his game is on and he should get plenty of looks this week with his favorite scoring irons. Troy is averaging 5% more birdies than the field from the 125-150 yard scoring distances.
Martin Laird (70/1 DK- $7,100 FD- $7,300) The South African is rounding into form after his top 20 showing in Texas where he was nearly a full stroke higher than his YTD baseline in strokes gained approach. Laird is hitting his irons right where he wants, with a good record in the wind and plenty of distance to get around Eagle Point.
Nick Taylor (125/1 DK- $7,000 FD $5,300) In great form Nick is coming off back to back to 25’s at the RBC and a windy Valero. His approach game is dialed in right now and he has enough length to compete here as well. The weakest (& most variant) part of his game is the putter but he should see plenty of good looks this week on new greens which could help negate any putting disadvantage Nick might be at.
Hudson Swafford (60/1 DK- $7,700 FD $6,800) The buzz was that The Swafficer got to play Eagle Point a few weeks back and should be a bit more familiar than most with the new venue this week but Swafford also has the required length to compete here. Prior to his MC at The Masters, Hudson was peaking in form and should be able to put together a nice performance this week with a strong off the tee game paired with his usually above average putter.
Wesley Bryan (33/1 DK-$9,100 FD $7,400) Making his first start since his maiden victory, Bryans ball striking and putting will get him around Eagle Point this week. Not being one of the bigger hitters, Bryan will rely on his accuracy with mid irons and these green contours to access pins and birdies this week.
Scott Brown (115/1 DK-$7,600 FD- $6,300) After coming up just shy of the win in Louisiana, Scott Brown’s form is making a comeback. A missed cut at the RBC, but with two pretty good rounds of 72 and 71. Brown will be looking to add his second (individual) top 10 of the year.
Geoff Oglivy (340/1 DK-$7,200 FD- $5,600) The Aussie has found a resurgence in recent form recently in his approach game and his always trustee putter should go well around this new course. Growing up in windy Melbourne, Ogilvy is use to tight runoffs, and is also an incredible good at “long feel” putting, both musts this week.
Robert Streb (200/1 DK- $6,200 FD-$6,100) A good showing last week in the team tournament with follow winning element member Troy Merritt, Streb has also been a fellow practice round walker of our on-site guy. The word from those practice rounds is that Streb is starting to round into form, and as Streb does, he makes a couple pops a year that helps keep his status, look for him to make some noise this week.
Max Homa (400/1 DK- $6,000 FD- $4,500) “I’m finally playing golf again” words said from Homa to a coach on the range this week. Couple that with some good range sessions, and the bare minimum prices, we like this for a deep flier this week based on the Human element factor.
Heel Bleeder’s- A new section this week, as these are golfers that probably won’t hurt you, but won’t help you either. Just like hitting your driver of the heel, and having it bleed left or right a bit, but not much, we expect these golfers to all make the cut, but not contend this weekend.
- Patrick Reed
- Jim Furyk
- Soren Kjeldsen
- Daniel Berger
The Power Fade Report:
Each week, it seems that a singular player, and often a highly-owned one sinks a perfect lineup, so our bad chalk report is here to help. We are going to bring you some additional value by helping to identify a player that projects to be highly owned but has the potential to let those that roster him down with a possible MC or a lackluster performance for one reason or another.
Webb Simpson (30/1 DK-$9,700 FD-$7,300) – Listen we get the hometown narrative, but he may be putting a lot of pressure on himself because of that. What comes to mind was last year when he set up really well for Quail Hollow last year, and missed the cut last year. He’s also not a great player in the elements, so this set’s up for a Power Fade. If you feel like you need exposure to him, a RD ½ on FanDuel would be a great place to use him, where he is also significantly cheaper and less likely to run a perfect lineup. Hope he proves us wrong as he’s a great ambassador for the tournament and we’d like to see him succeed on an awesome course.
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