The Winning Element
This is where we blend the tour level content with tour level data, mix in human element factors to generate this Week’s top 25 leaderboard. Instead of trying to do the impossible and place every golfer in their respective finishing position, we’ve grouped them into their most likely spots with our final piece of written content each week.
Last Weeks Results:
The last couple of weeks have seen guys with virtually no form pop up to win out of seemingly nowhere, starting with Si Woo and then Billy Ho last week. Regardless of the fluky winners, Tour Level managed to put together another solid performance this week
Cuts: 23 of 28 players suggested made the cut or 82%
Top 10’s: 6 of 28 or 21%
Top 25’s: 11 0f 28 or 40%
Last week’s Winner Picked- No but we got 2nd place with J Day
Top 10 Most Likely to Win- This leader-board is indicative of what we expect the leaderboard to look like come sunday. The golfer listed first is who we think is most likely to win.
Jordan Spieth (11/1 DK-$12,000) Team Tout Spieth? Maybe. If you’ve read “against the grain” this week, @dfsgolfer23 gives some great context on lead in performance last year. If you haven’t had a chance to listen to our Podcast yet, we touch on how important and meaningful this tournament is to Jordan. We expect him to defend his title, as he goes back to his old putter and silences the critics, for at least a week.
Jon Rahm (12/1 DK-$11,800) Rahm is coming off a very un-Rahm like performance at the Players and an MDF but is still the most talented golfer in this field. The guy can hit all the shots and seems to have it ALL. That said his lack of course history gives a bit of pause, since this course doesn’t seem to fit Rahm’s strengths on paper but based on what we know about Rahm this shouldn’t be an issue. The Rahm Goat should show just fine once again this week.
Matt Kuchar (25/1 DK-$10,100) Kuch is a bit of course horse here, making 6 of his last 7 cuts with 2 top 10’s in his last 3 appearances at Colonial. The steady driver of Kuch will keep him in position this week while his strokes gained approach are the best they have been all year. He is currently averaging .65 strokes gained approach over his YTD baseline. With his game finding form and a course that suits him, look out for Kuch this week.
Zach Johnson (33/1 DK-$9,800) ZJ has won here twice and has arguably the best course history of anyone in the field, that along is enough to give him a look but ZJ is also rounding into form after struggling with the new PXG driver. ZJ’s strokes gained approach are trending in the right direction and the word is he has also really been grinding the last few weeks. ZJ is ready to pop this week.
Kevin Kisner (33/1 DK-$9,700) The emotional roller coaster of the Zurich team event and nearly claimed a victory seemed to hit Kisner kind of hard as he MC The Wells and had just a mediocre finish at the Players. That said, he has had enough time to process and refocus his efforts for Colonial. A course he has posted back to back top 10’s the past 2 years and made 2 of 3 cuts here as well. Look for Kisner to break out of his near win slump and perform well again this week.
Marc Leishman (33/1 DK-$9,300) Picking up more strokes than everyone but James Hahn from tee to green last, the only thing holding Leishman back is his putter right now. Based on his past results at Colonial and the small bent grass greens, his putter should fare better this week. Leish is also on his 3rd straight week of play, a good thing for a guy that takes a few events to heat up.
Paul Casey (25/1 DK-$10,200) Since returning the form late last year, the form we were accustomed to seeing from Casey back in 2009-2013, he hasn’t played the course. In 2015 he placed 43 and in 2014 MC. Back in 2010 and 2009 he finished 13 and 5th respectively, and that’s where we expect to see him this week. Coming off a stretch of 3 top 25’s in a row, including a 6th at the masters, and a 12th at a similar field event at Eagle Point. He’s a bit expensive on DK, but this tournament doesn’t not require stars to produce a 10X return, average would be 7-9X and casey should have no problem getting the low end of that range.
Jason Dufner (25/1 DK-$9,000) Dufner faded on Sunday, but was in a great position to win. Reading through the “Edge’s Yardage Book” and knowing Dufner’s game, I can see why he loves this course. He has 3 top 10’s in his last 5 tries, and is on the heels of 6 straight made cuts. Even the year that he finished in a T43 in 2014 he scored 63 DK points. I expect that to be his floor this week.
Ryan Palmer (33/1 DK-$7,900) #PalmerInTexas narrative in full effect this week, well a little more than a narrative actually. Palmer has made 6 of his last 8 cuts here and has been in exceptional form (Sans the players). Ryan plays out here a ton and is very familiar with the greens here, when you pull out his 2 MC here, he averages a 15th place finish. Look for that average finish to continue
Danny Lee (66/1 DK-$6,900) Is it really time? Here’s what he’s got going for him. A stable girlfriend off the course, and good form on the course. Max that with really good course history and this price? I smell a run of top 10’s for Lee. Let’s jump on before the price goes back up.
Notables & Value Plays
Boo Weekley (150/1 DK- $6,400) BOOO! What a great price to see him at. This is his favorite course, and I’m sure you know by now that he’s been in the Dallas Ft.Worth area for at least 2 weeks. As Bowdo mentioned on the podcast, he prepares for this and Sea Island as his “majors”. Although he missed the cut last year, he had some really bad form coming in. This year its quite different. Last week alone he gained over a stroke and half ball striking vs his YTD average, and just under from tee 2 green. At 6400, there’s almost no risk in a GPP format. He heads the top of our value list.
Brandt Snedeker(40/1 DK-$8,100) If you haven’t checked out the Edge Subscriber podacst yet, I touch on Brandt and why he fits as a great GPP play this week. We chose three key non SG stats to look at and Brandt ranks 3rd on the list behind only Rahm and Spieth for those key stats. Don’t be nervous about the injury, the cobwebs were worked out last week.
Emiliano Grillo (40/1 DK-$7,800) Team Tour Level talked about Grillo a few weeks back at “the players” and exactly what we thought could happen happened. His game is very close, but is showing a few flaws come crunch time on Sunday. When he gets those few swing mechanics/flaws under control, he’s going to win a big event.
Martin Laird (100/1 DK-$6,600) We haven’t seen Laird since the MC at the Players, so he’s had a few weeks off. He missed the cut last year, but prior to that he had made 5 straight here in Ft. Worth. A nice value on both sides especially with 2 top 10’s here, he’s got that type of potential in hi.
Michael Kim (150/1 DK-$6,600) Bowdo’s top flier pick this week, Kim really popped in a few stats that we are highlighting this week. Not much course history here as he his only try was a MC last year, but he’s on a streak of 2 made cuts, getting progressively better through the 8 rounds.
Ben Martin (80/1 DK-$7,200) RF + CH + Proj low O% and good odds= That’s why we play Ben Martin this week.
Pat Perez (40/1 DK-$7,600) Patty P is back and cheaper than ever (not really) but he is cheap this week for the talent and course history. Having made 4 of his 6 cuts here with a top 5 in 2015 and a top 10 his 1st year (2010), Perez knows how to move it around Colonial. Not only does he like the course but Pat is still picking up a full stroke on approaches over his YTD average! His game has been much improved this year, look for that to continue and Perez to show well this week for a measly $7,400.
Phil Mickelson (33/1 DK-$8,800) Good Ol’ Phil. He’s reasonably priced on DK, but he hasn’t played here since 2010! He did win in 2008, so obviously he can play here. I’m sure he will provide some highlights as Phil always does, and some DK points, but we just can’t see him winning right now.
David Lingmerth (100/1 DK-$7,400) Much like the next guy on this list, Lingmerth loves these next 2 weeks. Results show that as he’s 3/3 here with all finishes inside the top 33. He flashed form at the Wells Fargo a couple weeks back finishing in 18th, but was swallowed up by the conditions on Saturday at the Players to MDF. We expect Lingmerth inside the T25 come Sunday evening.
William McGirt (50/1 DK-$7,100) Interestingly $300 less than Lingmerth, Mcgirt is coming off a T22 at the Players. McGirt’s favorite course is obviously next week, but he has also had some good success making 5 of 6 cuts here at colonial. Only one inside the top 25, and that’s why DK priced him here, and why he’s listed here.
Tony Finau (33/1 DK-$8,700) What could have been, if Tony Finau was a “Brian Harman” -esque putter. Oh you mean the best putter on tour? I understand that’s a tough comparison to make, but he missed countless putts inside of 10ft last week. Still, at $8,700 I expect him to match his 75 DK point performance last week, which should help you win a GPP this week.
Billy Horschel (40/1 DK-$7,700) It’s no secret that Billy Ho can go back to back victories, pulling it off in 2014. With the “off the course” matters seemingly at hand, he’s back to focusing on golf. Also, as Bowdo mentioned in the podcast, PXG was having problems with their driver, and that seems to be fixed now, certainly adding to the success of their staffers. We expect another strong showing from Billy.
Ollie Schniederjans (40/1 DK-$7,700) Sneaking into the cut last week. Ollie had a really up and down week. Still though, he managed 65.5 DK points, good enough for for an almost 9X return. Point being, he made 19 birdies, but couldn’t avoid the big numbers. If he cleans that up, he’s aiming for a top 10 this week.
Scott Stallings ( 210/1 DK- $6,600) A top 20 last week for Stallings, has me encouraged he could pop here just like he did in 2013 coming in 4th. He has MC all around that finish with 4 of his other 5 starts, but his long iron game was really in shape last week finishing in the top 10 in proximity to the hole from 200-225 yards. As mentioned in the “Edge’s Yardage Book” he should face about 4 of those type of shots per day.
Chris Kirk (50/1 DK-$8,200) So we just got word that Chris had to unfortunately withdraw from the Pro-am today due to a “back injury” but is still in the tournament field and at this point expected to tee it up. Right now we do not have an idea on the type or severity of the injury but are working to find out more and will update the Subs as we get more news. For the time being we have to assume that Kirk can play. We have seen back issues plague several players recently. From Si woo who had to WD due to tightness after his win. But we have also seen players W/D from a pro am with back issues and then go on to play well for the week, such as Leishman did at the RBC. It is hard to say without more information where Kirk is on that spectrum. We will update asap when we get news.
Si Woo Kim ( 52/1 – $8,000) Players Champion Kim withdrew from last week’s Byron Nelson. A Dallas resident, Kim has a home game this week. The back issue is one that’s pretty well documented at this point, since all he did on camera last week was try and stretch it. It’s certainly something that bothers him, but may not affect his game. Roster at your own risk.
A new section this week, as these are golfers that probably won’t hurt you, but won’t help you either. Just like hitting your driver of the heel, and having it bleed left or right a bit, we expect these golfers to all make the cut, but not per say contend this weekend. They may be able to still help a DK lineup, but certainly wouldn’t be planning on them winning the golf tournament.
- Cameron Tringale
- J.J. Henry
- Bud Cauley
- Lucas Glover
- Sergio Garcia
- Kyle Stanley
- Charley Hoffman
In honor of Rafa-Cabrera Bello’s amazing Albatross at the Players, the first time it had been done on 16 @ TPC Sawgrass, we bring you a few total long shots, that could find form this week. This will be guys that we were able to see over the past few days on site that seemed to be working and or practicing in the right way. Still they will need a few “RCB” like bounces to win.
- Ryan Blaum
- Scott Piercy
- Steve Stricker
- Cam Smith
- Aaron Baddeley
The Power Fade Report:
Each week, it seems that a singular player, and often a highly-owned one sinks a perfect lineup, so our bad chalk report is here to help. We are going to bring you some additional value by helping to identify a player that projects to be highly owned but has the potential to let those that roster him down with a possible MC or a lackluster performance for one reason or another.
Webb Simpson (40/1 DK-$9,100)
James Hahn (66/1 DK-$7,400)
Make sure to follow the team on Twitter! @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @hump_bumgarnder @Tourlvlfantasy