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Here you’ll find all the links to the most recent articles and the Tour Level Tech. Joining the Tour Level Fantasy Team will give you access to:

  • 5 pieces of written content per week including articles from top ranked DFS Golf Pro’s- Jason Rouslin @dfsgolfer23 & Scott McAfee @Scottimac11
  • A full customizable cheatsheet for all those that love to make their own model  & A Web-Integrated Searchable Cheatsheet for those who want to use Tour Level’s Model. 
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Current Week Content

Make the Turn- Tour Championship

Luckily, if the golf gods weren’t listening, (and even if they were!) single round showdowns give you another crack at roster construction. As always, make sure you are allocating your bankroll appropriately! With all that out of the way, let’s...

The Tour Championship

  30 Golfers remain in whats been in an incredible season of golf. Tiger Wood's return to the course brought back so many fans to the game, as attendance soared at events he played. Surrounded by a fantastic plethora of young talent, and some...

Sunday Showdown- BMW Championship

Luckily, if the golf gods weren’t listening, (and even if they were!) single round showdowns give you another crack at roster construction. As always, make sure you are allocating your bankroll appropriately! With all that out of the way, let’s...

Making the Turn: BMW Championship

Luckily, if the golf gods weren’t listening, (and even if they were!) single round showdowns give you another crack at roster construction. As always, make sure you are allocating your bankroll appropriately! With all that out of the way, let’s...

Winning Element- BMW Championship

At Tour Level, our only goal is to help you make the best-informed decisions you can and hopefully along the way, help you to earn a little profit. All of our content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and...

Current Week Tech

Past Articles

The Winning Element –

But before we do, we are adding a new ‘element ’to the article this week, to try and give everyone as much guidance as possible! This week, and from now on, we will include Tour Level’s target ownership percentage. This is what our optimizer will be set to for the following golfers, and what we will aim to have in our very own lineups! This should flow seamlessly into the opto creating higher quality lineups each week!   

The Winning Element: Career Builder + Top 10 for Abu Dahbi HSBC

@Tour Level, our one and only goal is to help you make the best informed decisions you can make and hopefully along the way, help you to earn a little profit. All of our content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and...

Against the Grain: Sony Open

Welcome to the 2017-2018 GOLF Season!  Whether it’s your first time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article goes up and down the DraftKings or Fanduel’s salary list, and talks specifically about Game Theory and how you can use it to create positive variance in your lineups! I also give you all of my personal results for the week. 

Like what you’ve read so far? Well we tackle the other 3 price categories and highlight the best Game Theory plays. These plays will undoubtedly help you create positive variance in your lineups! Not a member yet? Join us today for as little as $9! Check out all of our membership options here!

Not already a member? Click here to view our subscription options. Not ready to commit but want to be able to access our free content? Click here to register!  

 

 

Making the Turn: TOC

Making the Turn uses Tour Level Fantasy’s unique combination of data and the human element in an attempt to be THE place to turn for weekend only golf picks. Welcome to the first weekend golf of 2018! What a time to be alive in the DFS world! NFL playoffs are set to...

The Winning Element: TOC

The Winning Element- Tournament of Champions : Only 34 golfers in the field, we give you our top 14. Thomas(6/1 DK-$11,100 FD- $12,200) - from 100-125 yards he was 2nd on Tour in 2017. Won here last year and doesn’t look like he is going anywhere. He gets the nod over...

Getting Rich Slowly: Sentry TOC

If you are anything like me, you were introduced to games as young child- Yahtzee, Monopoly, Go Fish- you name it, we played it. Back then, we played it for old fashioned things- pride, bragging rights, competition, FUN. After some time, the shine of the new toy wore off. We no longer wanted to play “just because”. We wanted the games we played and the statements we made about sports to mean something, something worth more than JUST pride. With the advent of poker, more specifically online Texas hold ‘em poker, all of us millennials were able to turn that monopoly money and “bragging rights” into emptied bank accounts and a new way of keeping score. It was quite a time- those who were good got newer clothes and shinier cars. Those who weren’t (or were but stepped on one of the many landmines to success such as poor game selection, poor discipline, tilting, etc ) wound up lacking in the college savings department, or worse. Then, in 2006, UIGEA passes and the online poker world as we knew it ceased to exist 5 short years later. There was, however, one lasting thing that I was able to take from poker that I have been thinking about trying and thought it could bring all of the readers along for the journey.

The idea of turning nothing and building it into something has always been fascinating to me. The guy who started Chobani, Billy Beane, Steve Wynn. Heck- even I am the 7th employee at my company with now over 300. When Chris Ferguson did it with poker on Full Tilt back in 2006 I was merely a Freshman at Auburn University. As a newly minted college student, I was suddenly flush with the time required to give it a go. My plan was to turn literally $0 into $1,000. My testosterone filled, pubescent mind thought I was about 1/10 the player Ferguson was so I could easily attain 1/10 of his ultimate $10,000 goal. The problem was I had it all backwards (something that would later be confirmed by Ferguson)- it was the first 1% that was the most difficult, not the last. After nearly 8 months of playing and hours too numerous to count, I had worked my way up to $159. It was time for me to take a shot (kind of like one of those moments in the horror movies where it’s obvious who is waiting on the other side of the door but the main character goes in anyway, am I right?!?). I logged into a 1/2 NL Holdem Table and you can fill in the blanks on how that night, and my dreams, ended. It was the decision making that stuck with me. Why did I suddenly decide to put it all on the line in a game where I could lose months of work? I know what you’re thinking- he’s 20, probably got drunk and donked it off one night after the bar. Sadly there were no excuses, it happened on a Wednesday at 7:30 (doesn’t necessarily mean I couldn’t have gone to the bar earlier- it is college after all. But trust me- stone cold sober). I clearly didn’t lack the discipline- I had increased my bankroll from 0-$159, a significant accomplishment in itself. I didn’t lack the skill- I was able to pay for the first 3 years of school (out of state) simply by playing poker and working at a local restaurant a few days a week. The things I did lack were patience and game selection- two of the main reasons I see people fail in handicapping and betting generally, but especially in golf.

Picking a player to win a golf tournament is HARD- the level of variance in golf is unmatched in professional sports. That’s why this series will focus primarily on three things: Bankroll Management, wager selection, and game theory- including bet sizing and construction. It takes a lot of TIME to successfully prognosticate which golfers will do well in a certain week (All of the TL guys will back me up on this). For many of us, time is our most precious resource, something we don’t have in ample supply. Consequetly, I have chosen to leave a lot of that in the capable hands of the TourLevel guys and very simply use the betting matrix that is published weekly. What we want to do is set ourselves up for success by bet sizing appropriately and playing the associated amount of our Bankroll each week. Golf twitter does all of you a huge disservice by only saying “reduce your exposure” this week. If I play $50 for The Masters and I play $20 for The Players, how do I determine what to play for Colonial? What about (gasp!) Memphis and Puerto Rico- not to mention Euro?!? We will use specific, math based criterion in determining bankroll usage and give evidence as to why those are optimal. In my day job, “evidence based investing” is championed by some of the largest personalities in the space. I hope to bring something similar to the golf betting/DFS community through this column.

It will, in a sentence, teach you how to Get Rich Slowly. “Getting rich slowly” always brings the same person to mind, Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha says it best when he says,
“You’re dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it’s like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be O.K.

With a more mature and patient mind I thought that this would be a great opportunity to try it again, and I am happy to have all of you joining me. Maybe its redemption, maybe its proving it to myself, or maybe it’s some type of sick gluttony for punishment but I think it’s something that people will really enjoy. I’ve played in the Thunderdome, the FGWC and have been in the bigger contests on DK. None of which excite me as much as being able to do something like this and prove to all the dads and small stakes grinders out there that it can be done with the right amount of patience, discipline and wager selection.
We are going to deposit $100 dollars into an account and will be using Bovada. If you have any questions about how to set up an account you can watch a brief video here and sign up here. Obviously this week there is only one tournament and it is a limited field at that so the wagering is a bit limited and we will really be getting going next week with the PGA Sony Open and South African Open on the Euro tour. Consequently, I will have one small play for the TOC and really get into the form of the article next week with the 2 tournaments worldwide.

If you are anything like me, you were introduced to games as young child- Yahtzee, Monopoly, Go Fish- you name it, we played it. Back then, we played it for old fashioned things- pride, bragging rights, competition, FUN. After some time, the shine of the new toy wore off. We no longer wanted to play “just because”. We wanted the games we played and the statements we made about sports to mean something, something worth more than JUST pride. With the advent of poker, more specifically online Texas hold ‘em poker, all of us millennials were able to turn that monopoly money and “bragging rights” into emptied bank accounts and a new way of keeping score. It was quite a time- those who were good got newer clothes and shinier cars. Those who weren’t (or were but stepped on one of the many landmines to success such as poor game selection, poor discipline, tilting, etc ) wound up lacking in the college savings department, or worse. Then, in 2006, UIGEA passes and the online poker world as we knew it ceased to exist 5 short years later. There was, however, one lasting thing that I was able to take from poker that I have been thinking about trying and thought it could bring all of the readers along for the journey.

The idea of turning nothing and building it into something has always been fascinating to me. The guy who started Chobani, Billy Beane, Steve Wynn. Heck- even I am the 7th employee at my company with now over 300. When Chris Ferguson did it with poker on Full Tilt back in 2006 I was merely a Freshman at Auburn University. As a newly minted college student, I was suddenly flush with the time required to give it a go. My plan was to turn literally $0 into $1,000. My testosterone filled, pubescent mind thought I was about 1/10 the player Ferguson was so I could easily attain 1/10 of his ultimate $10,000 goal. The problem was I had it all backwards (something that would later be confirmed by Ferguson)- it was the first 1% that was the most difficult, not the last. After nearly 8 months of playing and hours too numerous to count, I had worked my way up to $159. It was time for me to take a shot (kind of like one of those moments in the horror movies where it’s obvious who is waiting on the other side of the door but the main character goes in anyway, am I right?!?). I logged into a 1/2 NL Holdem Table and you can fill in the blanks on how that night, and my dreams, ended. It was the decision making that stuck with me. Why did I suddenly decide to put it all on the line in a game where I could lose months of work? I know what you’re thinking- he’s 20, probably got drunk and donked it off one night after the bar. Sadly there were no excuses, it happened on a Wednesday at 7:30 (doesn’t necessarily mean I couldn’t have gone to the bar earlier- it is college after all. But trust me- stone cold sober). I clearly didn’t lack the discipline- I had increased my bankroll from 0-$159, a significant accomplishment in itself. I didn’t lack the skill- I was able to pay for the first 3 years of school (out of state) simply by playing poker and working at a local restaurant a few days a week. The things I did lack were patience and game selection- two of the main reasons I see people fail in handicapping and betting generally, but especially in golf.

Picking a player to win a golf tournament is HARD- the level of variance in golf is unmatched in professional sports. That’s why this series will focus primarily on three things: Bankroll Management, wager selection, and game theory- including bet sizing and construction. It takes a lot of TIME to successfully prognosticate which golfers will do well in a certain week (All of the TL guys will back me up on this). For many of us, time is our most precious resource, something we don’t have in ample supply. Consequetly, I have chosen to leave a lot of that in the capable hands of the TourLevel guys and very simply use the betting matrix that is published weekly. What we want to do is set ourselves up for success by bet sizing appropriately and playing the associated amount of our Bankroll each week. Golf twitter does all of you a huge disservice by only saying “reduce your exposure” this week. If I play $50 for The Masters and I play $20 for The Players, how do I determine what to play for Colonial? What about (gasp!) Memphis and Puerto Rico- not to mention Euro?!? We will use specific, math based criterion in determining bankroll usage and give evidence as to why those are optimal. In my day job, “evidence based investing” is championed by some of the largest personalities in the space. I hope to bring something similar to the golf betting/DFS community through this column.

It will, in a sentence, teach you how to Get Rich Slowly. “Getting rich slowly” always brings the same person to mind, Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha says it best when he says,
“You’re dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it’s like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be O.K.

With a more mature and patient mind I thought that this would be a great opportunity to try it again, and I am happy to have all of you joining me. Maybe its redemption, maybe its proving it to myself, or maybe it’s some type of sick gluttony for punishment but I think it’s something that people will really enjoy. I’ve played in the Thunderdome, the FGWC and have been in the bigger contests on DK. None of which excite me as much as being able to do something like this and prove to all the dads and small stakes grinders out there that it can be done with the right amount of patience, discipline and wager selection.
We are going to deposit $100 dollars into an account and will be using Bovada. If you have any questions about how to set up an account you can watch a brief video here and sign up here. Obviously this week there is only one tournament and it is a limited field at that so the wagering is a bit limited and we will really be getting going next week with the PGA Sony Open and South African Open on the Euro tour. Consequently, I will have one small play for the TOC and really get into the form of the article next week with the 2 tournaments worldwide.

First Cut: Tournament of Champions

As with all of our content and tools here at Tour Level, our aim is to help you make better decisions in all your fantasy golf games and golf betting decisions. The main purpose of this article is to kick off the week with a base level understanding of the course and some of the related items. The emphasis of the article is to familiarize yourself with any unique characteristics of the course.  Simply, you start getting an idea of the course, an player profile and some specific stats that have been both indicators of past and future success at this week’s tournament.

Tournament Information
Welcome back golf fans. I’m excited for the first tournament of the year, the Tournament of Champions.  If you are, like I am, stuck in this ice box known as New England or similar confines, than you know just how important this tournament is for the psyche and sanity of the golf fan.  The tournament is played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort Hawaii. As the name of the tournaments suggests, the field is comprised of golfers who won a PGA Tour event last year.  This is a very small field and no cut event.

This tournament, like all PGA Tour events, is very philanthropic, raising more than $5.6 million has been raised to benefit Maui charities since the Tournament of Champions moved to Hawaii in 1999. Some of the over half-dozen beneficiaries, include Hale Makua Health Service, Golf for Maui Charities and the Maui Council of the Boy Scouts of America.  I think it is important to take note that the game of golf, which many consider elitist and a tool for entrenching socio-economic disparities, does a lot of good throughout this country, over a very long and spread out season.

History and Course Designer
The Plantation course was one of the first projects by the team of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and opened in 1991.

The Numbers
Plantation Course at Kapalua, 7,452 yards, par 73,  featuring four par 5s and only three par 3s, leaving 11 par 4s. Features Bermudagrass Greens, with Average Green Size of 7,120 square feet and a Tournament Stimpmeter rolling at 10 feet, meaning Slow Greens.

The Field Average for Driving Distance is around 290 yards on what many consider to be a very Driver-Heavy Course.  This is bolstered by the fact that the percentage of Fairways Hit is over 70% for the Field Average and therefore fall in the category of Easy-to-Hit Fairways.  What makes this a very easy to score course is that the Greens in Regulation Field Average is even higher than the Fairway average at over 80% and thus is also an Easy-to-Hit Greens course.

 
Course Information
The course and corresponding television coverage offers some of the most breathtaking views of the entire season. These views have help melt the icicles from my Charlie Hoffman flat-brim Titliest trucker hat for years. However, with that sweeping natural beauty, comes an exposure to the elements, specifically the whipping winds, that often turns extreme.  So extreme that the tournament in 2013 had a Tuesday finish, as the tournament administrators battled the wind all four days. Although, most years the crazy winds stay benign enough for the winner to shoot 20-under par over four days.

Part of what makes, the course so unique is that it is built on the side of a mountain and very near the unique Hawaiian volcanic coast.  Part of the brilliance of the Coore-Creenshaw design is the use of elevation changes to create the dramatic layout. That design feature, coupled with breathtaking oceanic views, really does make this one of the more unique and picturesque stops on Tour.  

The course at 7,411 yards is really not as long as the yardage suggests because of the massive elevation changes.  These elevation changes, specifically for shots off the tee will add distance to the players shots.  There are only three par 3s, which also lengthens the course yardage without a corresponding length in the actual holes (see chart below).  So focusing on Bombers (Driving Distance (DD)) is certainly not necessary, though could be beneficial regardless of its lack of necessity.

The fairways are very large and the rough is not very penalizing, so Driving Accuracy (DA) is also not a dominant focal point for our player profile. Because, this is very much a resort course, it often presents these top tier Tour players, very easy tee shots. However the difference between The Plantation Course and most resort courses on the PGA tour is the undulating nature of the fairways.  This will require good course knowledge to understand the contours and rollouts.  But many players have played here before, others should have ample time to learn the best spots to land there shots, so misses due to the undulations should be mitigated.  Although this is not to say, that misses wont occur and when they do, the drastic contours due to the elevation change will certainly exacerbate things and players could lose strokes.  Keeping course history or even just course familiarity in mind, during player selection, is a good idea this week, especially in some building the base of your player pool.  Players will not lose strokes to water hazards, since there are none on the course.  The course does feature over 90 bunkers. The bunkers are found surrounding both the fairways and the greens and players with good short game will have an advantage in keeping good rounds going and escaping big numbers.

The greens are well above average in size for the PGA tour but their hilly and undulating nature add some complexity, however most is neutralized by their slow speed.   The grass on the greens is Bermuda and the speed on the stimpmeter is normally around 10. Knowing what players are best on Bermuda cant hurt.  Since the course is so near the coast, wind often plays a role in how and which golfers perform Best.

Scorecard

Hole Breakdown

Par 4

See full article for hole by hole approach shot data

Par 3 and Par 5

See full article for hole by hole approach shot data

Weather

The weather looks set to be sunny and pleasant on all four days. Winds, according to the weather report says that Thursday thru Sunday might have strong winds but probably not crazy like it did in 2013 when they had to cut the tournament short due to intense winds.   

Stats – Key Stats For The Course
Based on the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. We will be using the below stats and course history to select golfers.   The stats below does not include Strokes Gained (SG),  which is our main statistical focal point every week, especially SG:Tee to Green (SG:T2G).

Correlated
Some stats are correlated to success, other are more intuitively based on the type of course or tournament or unique factors that week.  The below are a few that are correlated to success.

Birdie or Better % (BoB%)
In the last ten years, more often than not, the winner of this tournament has won with a score of less than -15. So as long as the wind stays down players will have to make as many birdies as they can.  Most years the leaderboard is stuffed with the top ranking BoB% players on tour for the previous year.

Proximity from 50-125 yards (Prox125)

Even though on paper the course is lengthy, the elevation changes off the tee actually make this course a lot shorter than it says. Because of this, a lot of wedges will be hit on approaches to the green. Getting it close with these wedges will be key because of how slow and how hard to read these greens are. Of the 22 golfers to finish T3rd or better here in the last 5 years, 18 of them were ranked 65th or better in Prox125 for that specific year.

Intuitive
Par 5 scoring (P5)
In the last 10 years only 4 out of 38 golfers who have finished T3 or better at Kapalua have finished outside the Top 80 in P5 for that specific year.

 
Noise – Red Herring
Driving Distance (DD)
Shorter hitters have played well here in the past, so I wouldn’t eliminate anyone from consideration just because of their lack of distance off the tee.  However, the course with it’s very large fairways and only a little trouble off the tee, longer hitters should have a slight advantage this week as long as the wedge play is good as well.  But the wedge play is the real key and any real insistence on DD, I think would be misguided, especially from the perspective of building a player pool.  In terms of picking the outright winner, I would say that the argument for DD is a little stronger.

Player Preview

See the full article for

NBA DFS Thursday – 12/21/2017

NBA DFS - 12/21/2017 There are five games in the NBA DFS main slate for tonight on DraftKings.   TEAMS ON BACK TO BACK GAMES Every team other than Cleveland and New York Knicks are on back to backs.  And only the Sixers and Jazz have Home back to backs, everyone else...

NBA DFS Monday December 12th

NBA DFS Monday - 12/11/2017 There are six games in the NBA DFS main slate for tonight on DraftKings. PACED UP/DOWN GAMES UP- OKC and LA Clippers DOWN - HEAT and GSW Two teams will play up-tempo: hornets versus OKC and the clippers. The Hornets are without Batum so...

NBA 12/4 Recap

Introduction Hello, During this downtime in golf (if we can call it that) I hope to periodiclly feature some pieces on DFS, Sports Betting and some longer form golf pieces not directly related to the weeks Euro or PGA tournament.  To that end, we are here to recap...

First Cut: Hero

Joshua Grenier, jpgrenier on DraftKings and Fanduel, starts the week bringing you Tour Level’s unique perspective, with the “First Cut”. Josh is a top ranked father of twin boys and uses zero of his several degrees in his day job. He loves to chat about golf, DFS and music on Twitter so feel free to hit him @GrantBushman on Twitter.

As with all of our content and tools here at Tour Level, we aim to help you make better decisions in all of your fantasy golf games and for all your golf betting related items. The main purpose of this article is to kick the week off with a base level understanding of the course and some of the related items. The emphasis of the article is to simply familiarize yourself with any unique characteristics of the course and start to get an idea of specific stats that have been both indicators of past and future success at this week’s tournament.

Tournament Information

NOTE:  Below, please find a hole by hole break down that was provided via the PGA Tour website.

I will continue to build a more complete profile of the course and a few player profiles, as we move away from the Holiday Hangover.

No matter what, Jason and Scott will be building a player by player breakdown for the entire field to be released later in the week.

The Winning Element (picks)- UBS Hong Kong

At Tour Level, our one and only goal is to help you make the best informed decisions you can make and hopefully along the way, help you to earn a little profit. All of our content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and...

Make the Turn: RSM Classic

- Make the Turn: RSM Classic - Again there are really small prize pools for the daily fantasy contests this weekend (see below) and likely they don’t warrant a ton of time or bankroll but we still like to put something together for those who wish to play and those who...

Betting Matrix: RSM+DP+Dunlop

Below is the betting matrix for this week's tournaments!

First Cut – RSM – Seaside

Joshua Grenier, jpgrenier on DraftKings and Fanduel, starts the week bringing you Tour Level’s unique perspective, with the "First Cut”. Josh is a top ranked father of twin boys and uses zero of his several degrees in his day job. He loves to chat about golf, DFS and...

First Cut – Mayakoba

Joshua Grenier, jpgrenier on DraftKings and Fanduel, starts the week bringing you Tour Level’s unique perspective, with the "First Cut”. Josh is a top ranked father of twin boys.  He loves to chat about golf, DFS and music on so feel free to hit him @GrantBushman on...

Making the Turn at Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Again there are really small prize pools for fantasy contests this weekend and likely doesn’t warrant a ton of time or bankroll but we still wanted to put something together for those who wish to play and those who are still placing wagers on the outcome or in...

Making the Cut @ Shriners TPC Summerlin

Scott McAfee, aka @Scottimac11 on Twitter, DraftKings, and Fan Duel, continues Tour Level’s unique prospective, covering cash games in “Making the Cut” at Shriners TPC Summerlin . Scott was ranked in the top 40 of the 2016 Rotogrinders PGA rankings (it’s the only real...

First Cut – Shriners TPC Summerlin

Joshua Grenier, jpgrenier on DraftKings and Fanduel, starts the week bringing you Tour Level’s unique perspective, with the "First Cut”. Josh is a top ranked father of twin boys and uses zero of his several degrees in his day job. He loves to chat about golf, DFS and...