Against the Grain (DraftKings)- The Wells Fargo Championship
We are back this week with normal DK contests and a pretty good field! With 7 golfers ranked inside the OWGR top 20, DJ heads the pack as he’s back in action after “the fall.”
Recap of Last Week’s Article: The top range price category suggested stacking Wiesberger and Fisher, and certainly that worked out in terms of DK points. The mid-tier suggested stacking Ulihein with Fritelli – which was a success, at least on the back end with Fritelli. Peter Hanson ended up being a WD which is some tough look for the value section. We did make up for it,though, by identifying Bernd Rithammer in the deep dives.
DraftKings Contests This Week: Good ones this week!
$33 Dogleg 450K GTD- 150 max entry 50K first place.
$4 Fore 425K GTD- This one used to be the 20 entry but for some reason DK nixed that idea. Too bad because it was really catching on. 150 max entries 30K first place.
$12 Albatross 40K GTD- Single entry max.
Satellites: The slate this week is ripe with satellites including Millionaire Maker tickets for #ErinHills and the US Open, FWGC’s, and also for next week’s big GPP the Pressure Putt Satellite (100K first place).
$1500 250K GTD- For all the high rollers this contest is a 5 entry max with a 50K first place.
Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***
$10,000 & Above: 4 golfers fit this category:
All 4 guys are returning to action for the first time since their trip to Augusta, so they should be primed and ready to go.
Highest Owned: Rahm 25+ %
Lowest Owned: Scott < 15%
- GTA (Game Theory Analysis):With DJ being priced so incredibly far away from everyone else, and our first 13K price tag of the season, it will keep his ownership down in the low 20’s. It may creep even lower since this is his first time back since the fall. Jon Rahm will be the highest owned, and rightfully so as he’s an absolute DK points machine. Adam Scott just hasn’t played well this year but we know his game is world class and is coming off a top 10 at the Masters. A Mickelson/Scott or DJ/Scott stack will be the lowest owned stacks out of the top price category.
- The Top Play: Coming off a top 10 at the Masters and his projected ownership being the lowest out of the bunch, I like Adam Scott to have the best chance at getting a 10x return, and providing much more salary flexibility than DJ.
$9,999-$8,000: 13 golfers fit this category:
3 golfers have withdrawn in this price category, Smith-Ooosthouzien-Cauley, so it brings the number to 13 for the second straight week.
Highest Owned: Kevin Kisner – 25+
Lowest Owned: Molinari- 8%
- GTA: Kevin Kisner is coming in very hot, losing in a playoff, and finishing 11th at the RBC. His price will also dedicate a ton of ownership. Stacking him with Webb Simpson will be a very popular decision this week, so to diversify you may want to look at Molinari, An, or Holmes. Pairing Kisner with Paul Casey will also be very popular so you will need to look to diversify in the value or deep dive section.
- The Top Play: Paul Casey – Coming off a 6th at the Masters, I think it’s time for him to finally breakthrough and win. Because of his price, his ownership shouldn’t be higher than about 20% and as I’ve mentioned in the past anytime you can get a potential winner owned less than 20%, I like it.
$7,999-$7,000: 23 golfers fit this category.
A rather boring price category this week as a pair of struggling tour vets in Johnson and Na are the two big names.
Highest Owned: J.T Poston- 12%
Lowest Owned: Rory Sabbatini – <2%
- GTA: Poston’s ownership has sky rocketed since his @tourjunkies show. An average of 15% per week over his last 3 starts since the show, and his play hasn’t been all that fantastic, but he’s made all 3 cuts. Because of the salaries and the way DraftKings released them, you really won’t have a lot of teams with 2 guys from this category. Therefore , if you wanted to go Kisner and say Rahm or Casey, you could absolutely diversify your lineup by putting in a stack like Laird and Tway.
- The Top Play: Martin seems to be really coming into form, but buyer beware, I haven’t gotten Laird correct in a long time.
$6,999 and Below-112 golfers fit this category.
Maybe this is the new standard? We will just have to get use to it for the time being.
Highest Owned: Noren 20%+
Lowest Owned: 60 golfers will be below 2%… maybe even more.
- GTA: Alex Noren who is ranked 12th in the world, yup 12th, is priced below 398th ranked, and playing his third event as a pro. Curtis Luck… what is going on there DK? Is it a layup? Is it a trap? Could go either way to be honest, but he’s definitely worth a look. Another glaring mistake? Or trap…Stewart Cink at $6,400. A popular cash game play as mentioned in the Making the Cut. If both those guys end up being layups, then stacking them to get in 2 stars will be a very fruitful, yet popular, endeavor.
- Top Play: With over 110 golfers filling this category, we really try and look for golfers that are just simply mispriced, or have great upside. Harold Varner III salary was reduced by $1,500 but he’s made 5 cuts in a row, and the fields are not that much different. Because of this, and his consistent play, Varner checks in as the top play.
If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out Tour Level’s other articles, including the Winning Element, and cheat sheets that you get only in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.
Be sure to follow the TL Team on Twitter @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @crclngthdrn @tourlvlclubpro